Comparing Logistic Regression Models with Alternative Machine Learning Methods to Predict the Risk of Drug Intoxication Mortality

The Artificial Intelligence-Powered New Era in Pharmaceutical Research and Development: A Review

Currently, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) are gaining increased interest in many fields, particularly in pharmaceutical research and development, where they assist in decision-making in complex situations. Numerous research studies and advancements have demonstrated how these computational technologies are used in various pharmaceutical research and development aspects, including drug discovery, personalized medicine, drug formulation, optimization, predictions, drug interactions, pharmacokinetics/ pharmacodynamics, quality control/quality assurance, and manufacturing processes. Using advanced modeling techniques, these computational technologies can enhance efficiency and accuracy, handle complex data, and facilitate novel discoveries within minutes. Furthermore, these technologies offer several advantages over conventional statistics. They allow for pattern recognition from complex datasets, and the models, typically developed from data-driven algorithms, can predict a given outcome (model output) from a set of features (model inputs). Additionally, this review discusses emerging trends and provides perspectives on the application of AI with quality by design (QbD) and the future role of AI in this field. Ethical and regulatory considerations associated with integrating AI into pharmaceutical technology were also examined. This review aims to offer insights to researchers, professionals, and others on the current state of AI applications in pharmaceutical research and development and their potential role in the future of research and the era of pharmaceutical Industry 4.0 and 5.0.

'Be the Match'. Predictors of Decisions Concerning Registration as a Potential Bone Marrow Donor-A Psycho-Socio-Demographic Study

(1) Background: The study was aimed at a better understanding of the factors determining making a decision to become a potential bone marrow donor, in a Polish research sample; (2) Methods: The data was collected using a self-report questionnaire among persons who voluntarily participated in the study concerning donation, conducted on a sample of the Polish population via Internet. The study included 533 respondents (345 females and 188 males), aged 18-49. Relationships between the decision about registration as potential bone marrow donor and psycho-socio-demographic factors were estimated using the machine learning methods (binary logistic regression and classification & regression tree); (3) Results. The applied methods coherently emphasized the crucial role of personal experiences in making the decision about willingness for potential donation, f.e. familiarity with the potential donor. They also indicated religious issues and negative health state assessment as main decision-making destimulators; (4) Conclusions. The results of the study may contribute to an increase in the effectiveness of recruitment actions by more precise personalization of popularizing-recruitment actions addressed to the potential donors. It was found that selected machine learning methods are interesting set of analyses, increasing the prognostic accuracy and quality of the proposed model.

Detecting dengue fever in children using online Rasch analysis to develop algorithms for parents: An APP development and usability study

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever (DF) is a significant public health concern in Asia. However, detecting the disease using traditional dichotomous criteria (i.e., absent vs present) can be extremely difficult. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), due to their use of a large number of parameters for modeling, have shown the potential to improve prediction accuracy (ACC). To date, there has been no research conducted to understand item features and responses using online Rasch analysis. To verify the hypothesis that a combination of CNN, ANN, K-nearest-neighbor algorithm (KNN), and logistic regression (LR) can improve the ACC of DF prediction for children, further research is required.

METHODS

We extracted 19 feature variables related to DF symptoms from 177 pediatric patients, of whom 69 were diagnosed with DF. Using the RaschOnline technique for Rasch analysis, we examined 11 variables for their statistical significance in predicting the risk of DF. Based on 2 sets of data, 1 for training (80%) and the other for testing (20%), we calculated the prediction ACC by comparing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) between DF + and DF- in both sets. In the training set, we compared 2 scenarios: the combined scheme and individual algorithms.

RESULTS

Our findings indicate that visual displays of DF data are easily interpreted using Rasch analysis; the k-nearest neighbors algorithm has a lower AUC (<0.50); LR has a relatively higher AUC (0.70); all 3 algorithms have an almost equal AUC (=0.68), which is smaller than the individual algorithms of Naive Bayes, LR in raw data, and Naive Bayes in normalized data; and we developed an app to assist parents in detecting DF in children during the dengue season.

CONCLUSION

The development of an LR-based APP for the detection of DF in children has been completed. To help patients, family members, and clinicians differentiate DF from other febrile illnesses at an early stage, an 11-item model is proposed for developing the APP.

A Catalogue of Machine Learning Algorithms for Healthcare Risk Predictions

Extracting useful knowledge from proper data analysis is a very challenging task for efficient and timely decision-making. To achieve this, there exist a plethora of machine learning (ML) algorithms, while, especially in healthcare, this complexity increases due to the domain's requirements for analytics-based risk predictions. This manuscript proposes a data analysis mechanism experimented in diverse healthcare scenarios, towards constructing a catalogue of the most efficient ML algorithms to be used depending on the healthcare scenario's requirements and datasets, for efficiently predicting the onset of a disease. To this context, seven (7) different ML algorithms (Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Neural Networks, Stochastic Gradient Descent) have been executed on top of diverse healthcare scenarios (stroke, COVID-19, diabetes, breast cancer, kidney disease, heart failure). Based on a variety of performance metrics (accuracy, recall, precision, F1-score, specificity, confusion matrix), it has been identified that a sub-set of ML algorithms are more efficient for timely predictions under specific healthcare scenarios, and that is why the envisioned ML catalogue prioritizes the ML algorithms to be used, depending on the scenarios' nature and needed metrics. Further evaluation must be performed considering additional scenarios, involving state-of-the-art techniques (e.g., cloud deployment, federated ML) for improving the mechanism's efficiency.

Prediction of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications after lung resection in a Chinese population: A machine learning-based study

Background

Approximately 20% of patients with lung cancer would experience postoperative cardiopulmonary complications after anatomic lung resection. Current prediction models for postoperative complications were not suitable for Chinese patients. This study aimed to develop and validate novel prediction models based on machine learning algorithms in a Chinese population.

Methods

Patients with lung cancer receiving anatomic lung resection and no neoadjuvant therapies from September 1, 2018 to August 31, 2019 were enrolled. The dataset was split into two cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. The logistic regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting were applied to construct models in the derivation cohort with 5-fold cross validation. The validation cohort accessed the model performance. The area under the curves measured the model discrimination, while the Spiegelhalter z test evaluated the model calibration.

Results

A total of 1085 patients were included, and 760 were assigned to the derivation cohort. 8.4% and 8.0% of patients experienced postoperative cardiopulmonary complications in the two cohorts. All baseline characteristics were balanced. The values of the area under the curve were 0.728, 0.721, and 0.767 for the logistic, random forest and extreme gradient boosting models, respectively. No significant differences existed among them. They all showed good calibration (p > 0.05). The logistic model consisted of male, arrhythmia, cerebrovascular disease, the percentage of predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second, and the ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity. The last two variables, the percentage of forced vital capacity and age ranked in the top five important variables for novel machine learning models. A nomogram was plotted for the logistic model.

Conclusion

Three models were developed and validated for predicting postoperative cardiopulmonary complications among Chinese patients with lung cancer. They all exerted good discrimination and calibration. The percentage of predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second and the ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity might be the most important variables. Further validation in different scenarios is still warranted.

A Machine Learning Algorithm for Predicting the Risk of Developing to M1b Stage of Patients With Germ Cell Testicular Cancer

Objective

Distant metastasis other than non-regional lymph nodes and lung (i.e., M1b stage) significantly contributes to the poor survival prognosis of patients with germ cell testicular cancer (GCTC). The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) algorithm model to predict the risk of patients with GCTC developing the M1b stage, which can be used to assist in early intervention of patients.

Methods

The clinical and pathological data of patients with GCTC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Combing the patient's characteristic variables, we applied six machine learning (ML) algorithms to develop the predictive models, including logistic regression(LR), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), light Gradient Boosting Machine (lightGBM), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and k-nearest neighbor (kNN). Model performances were evaluated by 10-fold cross-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, which calculated the area under the curve (AUC) of models for predictive accuracy. A total of 54 patients from our own center (October 2006 to June 2021) were collected as the external validation cohort.

Results

A total of 4,323 patients eligible for inclusion were screened for enrollment from the SEER database, of which 178 (4.12%) developing M1b stage. Multivariate logistic regression showed that lymph node dissection (LND), T stage, N stage, lung metastases, and distant lymph node metastases were the independent predictors of developing M1b stage risk. The models based on both the XGBoost and RF algorithms showed stable and efficient prediction performance in the training and external validation groups.

Conclusion

S-stage is not an independent factor for predicting the risk of developing the M1b stage of patients with GCTC. The ML models based on both XGBoost and RF algorithms have high predictive effectiveness and may be used to predict the risk of developing the M1b stage of patients with GCTC, which is of promising value in clinical decision-making. Models still need to be tested with a larger sample of real-world data.

Web-Based Skin Cancer Assessment and Classification Using Machine Learning and Mobile Computerized Adaptive Testing in a Rasch Model: Development Study

Background

Web-based computerized adaptive testing (CAT) implementation of the skin cancer (SC) risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. However, the CAT of SC classification has not been reported in academics thus far.

Objective

We aim to build a CAT-based model using machine learning to develop an app for automatic classification of SC to help patients assess the risk at an early stage.

Methods

We extracted data from a population-based Australian cohort study of SC risk (N=43,794) using the Rasch simulation scheme. All 30 feature items were calibrated using the Rasch partial credit model. A total of 1000 cases following a normal distribution (mean 0, SD 1) based on the item and threshold difficulties were simulated using three techniques of machine learning—naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, and logistic regression—to compare the model accuracy in training and testing data sets with a proportion of 70:30, where the former was used to predict the latter. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]), and CIs along with the accuracy and precision across the proposed models for comparison. An app that classifies the SC risk of the respondent was developed.

Results

We observed that the 30-item k-nearest neighbors model yielded higher AUC values of 99% and 91% for the 700 training and 300 testing cases, respectively, than its 2 counterparts using the hold-out validation but had lower AUC values of 85% (95% CI 83%-87%) in the k-fold cross-validation and that an app that predicts SC classification for patients was successfully developed and demonstrated in this study.

Conclusions

The 30-item SC prediction model, combined with the Rasch web-based CAT, is recommended for classifying SC in patients. An app we developed to help patients self-assess SC risk at an early stage is required for application in the future.

An app to classify a 5-year survival in patients with breast cancer using the convolutional neural networks (CNN) in Microsoft Excel: Development and usability study

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignant cancer in women. A predictive model is required to predict the 5-year survival in patients with BC (5YSPBC) and improve the treatment quality by increasing their survival rate. However, no reports in literature about apps developed and designed in medical practice to classify the 5YSPBC. This study aimed to build a model to develop an app for an automatically accurate classification of the 5YSPBC.

METHODS

A total of 1810 patients with BC were recruited in a hospital in Taiwan from the secondary data with codes on 53 characteristic variables that were endorsed by professional staff clerks as of December 31, 2019. Five models (i.e., revolution neural network [CNN], artificial neural network, Naïve Bayes, K-nearest Neighbors Algorithm, and Logistic regression) and 3 tasks (i.e., extraction of feature variables, model comparison in accuracy [ACC] and stability, and app development) were performed to achieve the goal of developing an app to predict the 5YSPBC. The sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curve (area under ROC curve) on models across 2 scenarios of training (70%) and testing (30%) sets were compared. An app predicting the 5YSPBC was developed involving the model estimated parameters for a website assessment.

RESULTS

We observed that the 15-variable CNN model yields higher ACC rates (0.87 and 0.86) with area under ROC curves of 0.80 and 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.78-82 and 0.74-81) based on 1357 training and 540 testing cases an available app for patients predicting the 5YSPBC was successfully developed and demonstrated in this study.

CONCLUSION

The 15-variable CNN model with 38 parameters estimated using CNN for improving the ACC of the 5YSPBC has been particularly demonstrated in Microsoft Excel. An app developed for helping clinicians assess the 5YSPBC in clinical settings is required for application in the future.

Using Ultrasound-Based Multilayer Perceptron to Differentiate Early Breast Mucinous Cancer and its Subtypes From Fibroadenoma

Objectives

Mucinous breast cancer (MBC), particularly pure MBC (pMBC), often tend to be confused with fibroadenoma (FA) due to their similar images and firm masses, so some MBC cases are misdiagnosed to be FA, which may cause poor prognosis. We analyzed the ultrasonic features and aimed to identify the ability of multilayer perceptron (MLP) to classify early MBC and its subtypes and FA.

Materials and Methods

The study consisted of 193 patients diagnosed with pMBC, mMBC, or FA. The area under curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the effectiveness of age and 10 ultrasound features in differentiating MBC from FA. We used the pairwise comparison to examine the differences among MBC subtypes (pure and mixed types) and FA. We utilized the MLP to differentiate MBC and its subtypes from FA.

Results

The nine features with AUCs over 0.5 were as follows: age, echo pattern, shape, orientation, margin, echo rim, vascularity distribution, vascularity grade, and tumor size. In subtype analysis, the significant differences were obtained in 10 variables (p-value range, 0.000–0.037) among pMBC, mMBC, and FA, except posterior feature. Through MLP, the AUCs of predicting MBC and FA were both 0.919; the AUCs of predicting pMBC, mMBC, and FA were 0.875, 0.767, and 0.927, respectively.

Conclusion

Our study found that the MLP models based on ultrasonic characteristics and age can well distinguish MBC and its subtypes from FA. It may provide a critical insight into MBC preoperative clinical management.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning assisted drug delivery for effective treatment of infectious diseases

In the era of antimicrobial resistance, the prevalence of multidrug-resistant microorganisms that resist conventional antibiotic treatment has steadily increased. Thus, it is now unquestionable that infectious diseases are significant global burdens that urgently require innovative treatment strategies. Emerging studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) can transform drug delivery to promote effective treatment of infectious diseases. In this review, we propose to evaluate the significance, essential principles, and popular tools of AI in drug delivery for infectious disease treatment. Specifically, we will focus on the achievements and key findings of current research, as well as the applications of AI on drug delivery throughout the whole antimicrobial treatment process, with an emphasis on drug development, treatment regimen optimization, drug delivery system and administration route design, and drug delivery outcome prediction. To that end, the challenges of AI in drug delivery for infectious disease treatments and their current solutions and future perspective will be presented and discussed.

Machine learning risk prediction model for acute coronary syndrome and death from use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in administrative data

Our aim was to investigate the usefulness of machine learning approaches on linked administrative health data at the population level in predicting older patients’ one-year risk of acute coronary syndrome and death following the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Patients from a Western Australian cardiovascular population who were supplied with NSAIDs between 1 Jan 2003 and 31 Dec 2004 were identified from Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data. Comorbidities from linked hospital admissions data and medication history were inputs. Admissions for acute coronary syndrome or death within one year from the first supply date were outputs. Machine learning classification methods were used to build models to predict ACS and death. Model performance was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), sensitivity and specificity. There were 68,889 patients in the NSAIDs cohort with mean age 76 years and 54% were female. 1882 patients were admitted for acute coronary syndrome and 5405 patients died within one year after their first supply of NSAIDs. The multi-layer neural network, gradient boosting machine and support vector machine were applied to build various classification models. The gradient boosting machine achieved the best performance with an average AUC-ROC of 0.72 predicting ACS and 0.84 predicting death. Machine learning models applied to linked administrative data can potentially improve adverse outcome risk prediction. Further investigation of additional data and approaches are required to improve the performance for adverse outcome risk prediction.