Spatially Varying and Scale-Dependent Relationships of Land Use Types with Stream Water Quality

Estimating thresholds of natural vegetation for the protection of water quality in South African catchments

Many of South Africa's current water quality problems have been attributed to diffuse pollution derived from poorly regulated land use/land cover (LULC) transformations. To mitigate these impacts, the preservation of an adequate amount of natural vegetation within catchment areas is an important management strategy. However, it is not clear how much natural vegetation cover is required to provide adequate levels of protection, nor at which scale(s) this strategy would be most effective. To investigate the possibility of estimating minimum thresholds of natural vegetation required to protect water resources, regression analysis was used to model relationships between water quality (measured using Nemerow's Pollution Index) and metrics of natural vegetation at multiple scales across a sample of sub-catchments located along the western, southern, and south-eastern coast of South Africa. With conspicuous outliers removed, the models were able to explain up to 82 % of the variability in the relationship between land use and water quality. Moreover, a statistically significant, nonlinear, and inverse relationship was found between proportions of natural vegetation cover and pollution levels. This relationship was strongest when measured (1) across the whole catchment and (2) within a 200 m riparian buffer zone. The models further indicated that approximately 80 to 90 % natural vegetation cover was necessary at these scales to maintain water quality at ecologically acceptable levels. Additional nonlinear thresholds estimated using breakpoint analysis suggested that if proportions of natural vegetation fall below 45 % (across the whole catchment) and 60 % (within a 200 m riparian buffer zone) a dramatic increase in pollution levels can be expected. The estimated thresholds are recommended as guidelines that can be used to inform integrated land and water resources management strategies aimed at protecting water quality in the study area. Likewise, the methods described are recommended for the estimation of similar thresholds in other regions.

Modelling relationships between land use and water quality using statistical methods: A critical and applied review

Land use/land cover (LULC) can have significant impacts on water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems. Consequently, understanding and quantifying the nature of these impacts is essential for the development of effective catchment management strategies. This article provides a critical review of the literature in which the use of statistical methods to model the impacts of LULC on water quality is demonstrated. A survey of these publications, which included hundreds of original research and review articles, revealed several common themes and findings. However, there are also several persistent knowledge gaps, areas of methodological uncertainty, and questions of application that require further study and clarification. These relate primarily to appropriate analytical scales, the significance of landscape configuration, the estimation and application of thresholds, as well as the potentially confounding influence of extraneous variables. Moreover, geographical bias in the published literature means that there is a need for further research in ecologically and climatically disparate regions, including in less developed countries of the Global South. The focus of this article is not to provide a technical review of statistical techniques themselves, but to examine important practical and methodological considerations in their application in modelling the impacts of LULC on water quality.

Classification of catchments for nitrogen using Artificial Neural Network Pattern Recognition and spatial data

In hydrological modelling, classification of catchments is a fundamental task for overcoming deficits in observational datasets. Most attention on this issue has focussed on identifying the catchments with similar hydrological responses for streamflow. Yet, effective methods for catchment classification are currently lacking in respect to Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN), a water quality constituent that, at increasing concentrations, is threatening nutrient sensitive environments. Pattern recognition, using standard Artificial Neural Network algorithm is applied, as a novel approach to classify datasets that are considered to be suitable proxies for biological and anthropogenic drivers of observed DIN releases. Eleven gauged Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments within Queensland Australia are classified using spatial datasets extracted from ecosystem (e.g. original ecosystem responses to biogeographic, land zone, land form, and soil type attributes) and land use maps. To evaluate the performance of the examined spatial datasets as a proxy for deductive classification, the classification process is repeated inductively, using observed DIN and streamflow data from gauging stations. The ANN-PR method is seen to generate the same classification score format for the differing dataset types, and this facilitates a direct comparison for model output for observed data corroborations. The Kruskal-Wallis test for independence, at p > 0.05, identifies the deductive classification approach as a predictor for classification using DIN observations, which lacks an independence from each other at a p value of 0.01 and 0.02. This study concludes that an ANN-PR method can integrate the ecosystem and land use mapping data to deductively classify the GBR catchments into four regions that also have similar patterns of DIN concentrations. Due to the uniform availability of the mapping data, the findings provide a sound basis for further investigations into the transposing of knowledge from gauged catchments to ungauged areas.

Modeling water quantity and quality for a typical agricultural plain basin of northern China by a coupled model

Water crisis across the globe has placed high pressure on social development due to the need to balance the water consumption between sustainable economy and functioning ecosystem. Integrated process-based modeling has been reported as an effective tool to better understand the complex mechanisms of water issues on a basin scale. Considering that it is still relatively difficult to simulate the water quantity-quality processes simultaneously, this study proposed an integrated modeling framework by coupling a hydrological model with a water quality model. Taking the Xiaoqing River Basin in the Shandong Province of northern China as an example, this study coupled a distributed hydrological model, SWAT, with a one-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model, HEC-RAS, to investigate its ability to simulate water quality and quality at the basin scale. The coupling of the two models adopted the "output-input" scheme, where the runoff modeling results from SWAT are input into HEC-RAS for hydrodynamic and water quality simulations of the river channel. The results show that the SWAT model can adequately reproduce runoff with accepted accuracy for the calibration and validation periods with acceptable R² and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for the two hydrological stations. Further analysis also shows that the coupled model can simulate the concentration of ammonia nitrogen (NH₄-N) and the chemical oxygen demand (COD) in the middle and upper stream of the river for both low and high flow periods. The coupling of the hydrological and hydraulic models in this study provides a good tool for identifying the spatial patterns of the water pollutants over the basin and, thus, helps simplify precision water management.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Water Quality and Its Multiscale Relationship with Land Use in the Yangtze River Basin

The spatiotemporal characteristics of river water quality are the key indicators for ecosystem health evaluation in basins. Land use patterns, as one of the main driving forces of water quality change, affect stream water quality differently with the variations in the spatiotemporal scales. Thus, quantitative analysis of the relationship between different land cover types and river water quality contributes to a better understanding of the effects of land cover on water quality, the landscape planning of water quality protection, and integrated water resources management. Based on water quality data of 2006–2018 at 18 typical water quality stations in the Yangtze River basin, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of water quality by using the single-factor water quality identification index through statistical analysis. Furthermore, the Spearman correlation analysis method was adopted to quantify the spatial-scale and temporal-scale effects of various land uses, including agricultural land (AL), forest land (FL), grassland (GL), water area (WA), and construction land (CL), on the stream water quality of dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (CODMn), and ammonia (NH3-N). The results showed that (1) in terms of temporal variation, the water quality of the river has improved significantly and the tributaries have improved more than the main rivers; (2) in the spatial variation respect, the water quality pollutants in the tributaries are significantly higher than those in the main stream, and the concentration of pollutants increases with the decrease of the distance from the estuary; and (3) the correlation between DO and land use is low, while that between NH3-N, CODMn, and land use is high. CL and AL have a negative effect on water quality, while FL and GL have a purifying effect on water quality. In particular, AL and CL have a significant positive correlation with pollutants in water. Compared with NH3-N, CODMn has a higher correlation with land use at a larger scale. The results highlight the spatial scale and seasonal dependence of land use on water quality, which can provide a scientific basis for land management and seasonal pollution control.

Probability maps of anthropogenic impacts affecting ecological status in European rivers

Understanding how anthropogenic pressures affect river ecological status is pivotal to designing effective management strategies. Knowledge on river aquatic habitats status in Europe has increased tremendously since the introduction of the European Union Water Framework Directive, yet heterogeneities in mandatory monitoring and reporting still limit identification of patterns at continental scale. Concurrently, several model and data-based indicators of anthropogenic pressures to freshwater that cover the continent consistently have been developed. The objective of this work was to create European maps of the probability of occurrence of river conditions, namely failure to achieve good ecological status, or to be affected by specific pervasive impacts. To this end, we applied logistic regression methods to model the river conditions as functions of continental-scale water pressure indicators. The prediction capacity of the models varied with river condition: the probability to fail achieving good ecological status, and occurrence of nutrient and organic pollution were rather well predicted; conversely, chemical (other than nutrient and organic) pollution and alteration of habitats due to hydrological or morphological changes were poorly predicted. The most important indicators explaining river conditions were the shares of agricultural and artificial land, mean annual net abstractions, share of pollution loads from point sources, and the share of upstream river length uninterrupted by barriers. The probability of failing to achieve good ecological status was estimated to be high (>60%) for 36% of the considered river network of about 1.6 M km. Occurrence of impact of nutrient pollution was estimated high (>60%) in 26% of river length and that of organic pollution 20%. The maps are built upon information reported at country level pursuant EU legal obligations, as well as indicators generated from European scale models and data: both sources are affected by epistemic uncertainty. In particular, reported information depend on data collection scoping and schemes, as well as national knowledge and interpretation of river system pressures. In turn, water pressure indicators are affected by heterogeneous biases due to incomplete or incorrect inputs and uncertainty of models adopted. Lack of effective reach- and site-scale indicators may hamper detection of locally relevant impacts, for example in explaining alteration of habitats due to morphological changes. The probability maps provide a continental snapshot of current river conditions, and offer an alternative source of information on river aquatic habitats, which may help filling in knowledge gaps. Foremost, the analysis demonstrates the need for developing more effective continental-scale indicators for hydromorphological alterations and chemical pollution.

Evaluating the Relationships between Riparian Land Cover Characteristics and Biological Integrity of Streams Using Random Forest Algorithms

The relationships between land cover characteristics in riparian areas and the biological integrity of rivers and streams are critical in riparian area management decision-making. This study aims to evaluate such relationships using the Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI), Fish Assessment Index (FAI), and random forest regression, which can capture nonlinear and complex relationships with limited training datasets. Our results indicate that the proportions of land cover types in riparian areas, including urban, agricultural, and forested areas, have greater impacts on the biological communities in streams than those offered by land cover spatial patterns. The proportion of forests in riparian areas has the greatest influence on the biological integrity of streams. Partial dependence plots indicate that the biological integrity of streams gradually improves until the proportion of riparian forest areas reach about 60%; it rapidly decreases until riparian urban areas reach 25%, and declines significantly when the riparian agricultural area ranges from 20% to 40%. Overall, this study highlights the importance of riparian forests in the planning, restoration, and management of streams, and suggests that partial dependence plots may serve to provide insightful quantitative criteria for defining specific objectives that managers and decision-makers can use to improve stream conditions.

Eutrophication and the Ecological Health Risk

This Special Issue focuses on eutrophication and related ecological health risks—one of the biggest challenges to sustainable water management. It is increasingly recognized that eutrophication has multidimensional consequences for water quality, both ecosystem and human health, as well as economic activities. These consequences depend on site-specific conditions, specifically, the ecological stability of the system, land use types, climate change, and the presence of other contaminants, including infectious disease agents. This Special Issue contains ten research papers that focus on, among other factors, phosphorus, cyanobacteria, off-flavor substances, macroinvertebrates, chemical stress, and land-use effects, thereby increasing our understanding of the multidimensional effects of eutrophication.