Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

The effect of air temperature on mortality from cerebrovascular diseases in Brazil between 1996 and 2017

Abstract Cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) are one of the leading causes of mortality globally. Air temperature is one of the risk factors for CVD; however, few studies have investigated the relationship between air temperature and mortality from these diseases in Brazil. This time series study investigated the relationship between air temperature and CVD mortality in 10 microregions located across Brazil’s five regions during the period 1996 to 2017 using mortality data from the national health information system, DATASUS and daily mean temperature data. The association between mean air temperature and mortality from CVD was measured using generalized additive models with Poisson distribution and relative and attributable risks were estimated together with 95% confidence intervals using distributed lag non-linear models and a 14-day lag. There were 531,733 deaths from CVD during the study period, 21,220 of which (11,138-30,546) were attributable to air temperature. Minimum mortality temperatures ranged from 20.1ºC in Curitiba to 29.6ºC in Belém. Associations between suboptimal air temperatures and increased risk of death from CVD were observed in all of Brazil’s five regions. Relative risk from the cold was highest in Manaus (RR 1.53; 1.22-1.91) and Campo Grande (RR 1.52; 1.18-1.94), while relative risk from heat was highest in Manaus (RR 1.75; 1.35-2.26) and Brasília (RR 1.36; 1.15-1.60).

The effect of air temperature on mortality from cerebrovascular diseases in Brazil between 1996 and 2017

Cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) are one of the leading causes of mortality globally. Air temperature is one of the risk factors for CVD; however, few studies have investigated the relationship between air temperature and mortality from these diseases in Brazil. This time series study investigated the relationship between air temperature and CVD mortality in 10 microregions located across Brazil's five regions during the period 1996 to 2017 using mortality data from the national health information system, DATASUS and daily mean temperature data. The association between mean air temperature and mortality from CVD was measured using generalized additive models with Poisson distribution and relative and attributable risks were estimated together with 95% confidence intervals using distributed lag non-linear models and a 14-day lag. There were 531,733 deaths from CVD during the study period, 21,220 of which (11,138-30,546) were attributable to air temperature. Minimum mortality temperatures ranged from 20.1ºC in Curitiba to 29.6ºC in Belém. Associations between suboptimal air temperatures and increased risk of death from CVD were observed in all of Brazil's five regions. Relative risk from the cold was highest in Manaus (RR 1.53; 1.22-1.91) and Campo Grande (RR 1.52; 1.18-1.94), while relative risk from heat was highest in Manaus (RR 1.75; 1.35-2.26) and Brasília (RR 1.36; 1.15-1.60).

Combined Effect of Hot Weather and Outdoor Air Pollution on Respiratory Health: Literature Review

Association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and respiratory health is well documented. At the same time, it is widely known that extreme weather events intrinsically exacerbate air pollution impact. Particularly, hot weather and extreme temperatures during heat waves (HW) significantly affect human health, increasing risks of respiratory mortality and morbidity. Concurrently, a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures can be combined with weather–air pollution interaction during wildfires. The purpose of the current review is to summarize literature on interplay of hot weather, air pollution, and respiratory health consequences worldwide, with the ultimate goal of identifying the most dangerous pollution agents and vulnerable population groups. A literature search was conducted using electronic databases Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, and Scopus, focusing only on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from 2000 to 2021. The main findings demonstrate that the increased level of PM10 and O3 results in significantly higher rates of respiratory and cardiopulmonary mortality. Increments in PM2.5 and PM10, O3, CO, and NO2 concentrations during high temperature episodes are dramatically associated with higher admissions to hospital in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, daily hospital emergency transports for asthma, acute and chronic bronchitis, and premature mortality caused by respiratory disease. Excessive respiratory health risk is more pronounced in elderly cohorts and small children. Both heat waves and outdoor air pollution are synergistically linked and are expected to be more serious in the future due to greater climate instability, being a crucial threat to global public health that requires the responsible involvement of researchers at all levels. Sustainable urban planning and smart city design could significantly reduce both urban heat islands effect and air pollution.