Identifying the Impact of Landscape Pattern on Ecosystem Services in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China

Regional differences in spatial determinants of land urbanization in China

China has entered a critical stage of urbanization transition but still faces unbalanced regional development and uncoordinated urban-rural integration. Studying the regional differences in spatial determinants of land urbanization (LU) is crucial to achieving coordinated regional development of urbanization. However, the spatial determinants of LU remain unclear, especially in terms of their regional differences. Therefore, this study introduced dynamic distribution and spatial analysis to measure regional differences in spatial determinants of LU in China. During 1990-2020, the imbalance of LU in China was constantly decreasing, and the differences in LU among different regions were also decreasing. LU in China had significant spatial dependence and spatial spillover effects, and the trend of group development was gradually becoming obvious. LU in eastern region was more affected by natural factors than in central and western regions, while central and western regions were more affected by socioeconomic factors than in eastern region. This study can provide a scientific reference for understanding the spatial disequilibrium of LU and promoting the regional implementation of LU coordinated development.

Impacts of land use transitions on ecosystem services: A research framework coupled with structure, function, and dynamics

Rapid urbanization in China has resulted in drastic land use transitions (LUT) and has had a severe impact on the supply of regional ecosystem services (ESs). To improve ecosystem security and promote sustainable development regionally, it is essential to clarify spatial correlations between the multi-dimensional characteristics of LUT and ESs. We developed a theoretical framework to examine how LUT influenced regional ESs in three dimensions: land use structure, function, and dynamics. Using the Taihu Lake Rim urban agglomeration (TLRUA) as an example, we explored the process by which LUT affected the change in regional ESs. The results indicated that the TLRUA experienced accelerated urbanization between 2000 and 2018, with LUT and ESs exhibiting distinct characteristics in urban, suburban, and rural areas in different regions. The impact of LUT on ESs, as we analyzed them from different dimensions, embraced interactive effects and significant spatial spillover effects. The land use structural transitions were globally positively correlated with habitat maintenance, carbon sequestration, and recreation potential, whereas land use intensity and dynamics transitions exhibited negative correlations. Given their interactions at the local scale, we propose corresponding land management strategies, which can offer practical guidance for coordinating regional land resource development and ecosystem conservation.

Impacts of landscape pattern evolution on typical ecosystem services in Ganjiang River Basin, China

Understanding the response mechanism of ecosystem services (ES) to landscape patterns is important in regional landscape planning and sustainable development. In this study, the landscape index and InVEST model were used to quantitatively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of landscape patterns and ES in the Ganjiang River Basin of China from 1990 to 2020. Furthermore, the bivariate Moran's I method and spatial error model were used to test the spatial correlation between landscape index and ES. The results showed that (1) cropland decreased and construction land increased, and the overall landscape tended to be fragmented, the patch shape complicated, and landscape diversity increased from 1990 to 2020. Water conservation (WC) and soil conservation (SC) capacity increased by 10.56 mm and 16.24 t hm-2 a-1, respectively, whereas carbon storage (CS) decreased by 1.22 t hm-2 a-1. (2) The responses of different typical ES to landscape patterns were different in the landscape index and response degree. Typical ES negatively responded to Shannon's diversity index and patch density. WC was sensitive to the Splitting Index, whereas SC and CS were more responsive to the average patch area. (3) The overall purpose of territorial spatial planning within a basin should be to reduce the fragmentation and heterogeneity of the landscape. According to four local aggregation patterns of landscape index and ES, corresponding measures can be taken according to local conditions in different regions. These results can provide a quantitative basis for landscape management and ecological construction in the Ganjiang River Basin and scientific guidance for the Yangtze River conservation strategy.

Spatial relationship between land urbanization and ecosystem health in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Globally, land-based urbanization had far-reaching impacts on ecosystem health. Determining the spatial relationship between land urbanization and ecosystem health is important for sustainable socioeconomic development and ecological protection. However, existing studies lack research on these relationships in basin regions, which may limit the implementation of effective basin ecological management measures. Based on multi-source data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and spatial correlations of land urbanization rate (LUR) and ecosystem health index (EHI) in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) with a series of spatial analysis methods. The results showed that EHI in the YRB decreased by 0.024 during 2000-2020, with a decreasing range of 3.133 %, while LUR increased by 0.216, with an increasing range of 54.135 %. LUR has a significant negative spatial correlation with EHI, with high EHI and high LUR (9.814% in 2020) and high EHI and low LUR (12.397% in 2020) being the main types of agglomeration. The global regression results showed that LUR significantly negatively affected EHI. At the local scale, the LUR positively affected the EHI in the mountainous region, while the opposite was confirmed in the plain region. This study can provide scientific reference for the development of sustainable urban land control measures and basin ecological management measures.

Remote sensing inversion and prediction of land use land cover in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are dynamic and have been extensively studied; the change in LULC has become a crucial factor in decision making for planners and conservationists owing to its impact on natural ecosystems. Deriving accurate LULC data and analyzing their changes are important for assessing the energy balance, carbon balance, and hydrological cycle in a region. Therefore, we investigated the best classification method from the four methods and analyzed the change in LULC in the middle Yangtze River basin (MYRB) from 2001 to 2020 using the Google Earth Engine (GEE). The results suggest that (1) GEE platform enables to rapidly acquire and process remote sensing images for deriving LULC, and the random forest (RF) algorithm was able to calculate the highest overall accuracy and kappa coefficient (KC) of 87.7% and 0.84, respectively; (2) forestland occupied the largest area from 2001 to 2020, followed by water bodies and buildings. During the study period, there was a significant change in area occupied by both water bodies (overall increase of 46.2%) and buildings (decrease of 14.3% from 2001 to 2005); and (3) the simulation of LULC in the MYRB area was based on the primary drivers in the area, of which elevation changes had the largest effect on LULC changes. The patch generated land use simulation model (PLUS) was used to produce the simulation, with an overall accuracy and KC of 89.6% and 0.82, respectively. This study not only was useful for understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of LULC in the MYRB, but also offered the basis for the simulation of ecological quality in this region.

Dynamics of green spaces- Land surface temperature intensity nexus in cities of Ethiopia

In this study, the dynamics of green spaces and land surface temperature patterns in four cities in Ethiopia were investigated using Landsat imagery. The typical characteristics of LST over the past three decades (1990-2020) in relation to green space dynamics were first investigated; subsequently, the spatial distribution of LST was characterized based on hybrid geospatial techniques and mono-window algorithm analysis, in which the contributions of green spaces to LST were studied. In addition, the multiple linear regression method and spatial regression models (SRMs) were employed to investigate and predict the spatial dependence of LST and urbanization-induced green space dynamics. Results show that cities horizontally expanded unceasingly from 1990 to 2020, with a substantial discrepancy in expansion rates and the spatial patterns of UHI intensities among the cities (p < 0.05). Moreover, the area proportion of the UHI is significantly larger than that of the UGS, and the differences in the UGS cooling contribution were found in different land uses and zones of the cities. In the study periods, the spatial pattern of LST was significantly controlled by NDBI, and its coefficient in the OLS followed the pattern NDVI > MNDWI > latitudes > longitudes > population density > DEM. Due to the large proportions of buildings While green land and water bodies show significant capability to mitigate UHI effects, cooling effects are not apparent when their sizes are small. Besides, the SRMs show that UHI intensities were significantly influenced by MNDWI in Bahir Dar and Hawassa (p < 0.01).Cities' LAMBDA coefficients have a positive relationship with UHII (p < 0.01). Our study could help city planners and the government understand the current cooling potential of existing UGS to mitigate the dynamics of UHI and sustain the sustainability of green space management in cities.

Revealing Impacts of Human Activities and Natural Factors on Dynamic Changes of Relationships among Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Understanding the dynamic changes of relationships between ecosystem services (ESs) and their dominant factors can effectively adjust human activities to adapt proactively to global climate change. In this study, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) was selected to assess the dynamics of four key ESs (NPP, net primary productivity; WY, water yield; SC, soil conservation; FP, food production) from 2000 to 2020. The constraint lines of interactions among ESs were extracted based on a segmented quantile regression model. On this basis, the effects of both human activities and natural factors on the key features of the interactions between ESs were quantified with the help of automatic linear model. The results indicated that two types of constraint relationships, including exponential and humped-shaped, existed among the six pairs of ESs. In the past two decades, small changes in NPP thresholds would lead to large variations in other ESs thresholds. Precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index were the key factors to determine the constraint strength of ESs in the HHHP. The potential maximum value of WY in the HHHP could be increased by adjusting landscape shape to make it more complicated. This study helps to improve the potential of target ESs and provides a decision-making basis for promoting regional sustainable development.

Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios

Land use and land cover (LULC) projections are critical for climate models to predict the impacts of LULC change on the Earth system. Different assumptions and policies influence LULC changes, which are a key factor in the decisions of planners and conservationists. Therefore, we predicted and analyzed LULC changes in future scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP5-85) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MYRB). We obtain historical (i.e., 2005-2020) LULC data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform using the random forest (RF) classification method. LULC data for different future scenarios are also obtained by the driving factors of LULC changes in future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., 2035-2095) and the patch-generated land use simulation (PLUS) model. The major findings are as follows: (1) simulation using the PLUS model based on the acquired classification data and the selected drivers can obtain accurate land use data in MYRB and a Kappa coefficient of 89.6% and 0.82, respectively; (2) as for the LULC changes in the MYRB, forests increased by 3.9% and decreased by 1.2% in the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 scenarios, respectively, while farmland decreased by 9.2% and increased by 13.4% in SSP 1-26 and SSP 2-45, respectively, during 2080-2095; and (3) the main conversions in LULC in the MYRB were farmland to forest, forests/water bodies to farmland, and forests/grasslands to farmland/buildings in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5, respectively. This can be mainly attributed to gross domestic product (GDP), population (POP), temperature, and precipitation. Overall, this study not only contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms of LULC changes in the MYRB but also provides a basis for ecological and climatic studies.

Construction and Optimization Strategy of an Ecological Network in Mountainous Areas: A Case Study in Southwestern Hubei Province, China

High-intensity urban development and economic exploitation have led to the fragmentation and isolation of regional habitat patches, and biodiversity is under serious threat. Scientific identification and effective optimization of ecological networks are essential for maintaining and restoring regional ecosystem connectivity and guiding sustainable socio-economic development. Taking the mountainous areas of southwest Hubei Province (MASHP) in central China as an example, this study first developed a new integrated approach to identify ecological sources based on a quantitative assessment of ecosystem services and the morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) method; it then used the Linkage Mapper tool to extract ecological corridors, applied the principle of hydrological analysis to identify ecological nodes, evaluated each ecological element to quantify its importance, and finally constructed the ecological network and further proposed some optimization countermeasures. The results show that the ecological network in the MASHP is dominated by ecological resources composed of forestland. Connectivity in the central region is significantly better than in other regions, including 49 ecological sources with an area of 3837.92 km2, 125 ecological corridors with a total length of 2014.61 km, and 46 ecological nodes. According to the spatial distribution of crucial ecological landscape elements, a complete and systematic ecological framework of “two verticals, three belts, three groups, and multiple nodes” was proposed. The internal optimization of the ecological network in mountainous areas should focus on improving ecological flow, and strategies such as enhancing the internal connectivity of ecosystems, unblocking ecological corridors, and dividing ecological functional zones can be adopted. Based on the above analyses, this study also made recommendations for ecological protection and development and construction planning in mountainous areas. This study can provide realistic paths and scientific guidelines for ecological security and high-quality development in the MASHP, and it can also have implications for the construction of ecological networks and comprehensive ecological management in other mountainous areas.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and decoupling mechanism of economic growth and carbon emissions in an urban agglomeration of China

Carbon emissions and economic growth are two contradictions in urban development, and their decoupling is related to the sustainable development of cities. This paper took urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (UAMRYR), China, as the study area. The Kaya model, the Tapio decoupling model, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon emissions, the decoupling of economic activities, and driving factors. The results indicate that (1) carbon emissions increased by 66% in the study period, but the growth momentum was curbed after 2015. Low level and medium level areas continue to decrease, and relatively high level area gradually become dominant. (2) Spatially, carbon emissions are in a pattern of middle-hot and east-cold. Jiangxi is in the sub-cold and coldspot area, while the hotspot area is driven by the transformation from Wuhan's single-core to Wuhan and Changsha's dual-core. (3) Since 2010, most cities have been in a good decoupling state, and weak decoupling cities have risen from 35.5% in the initial period to 87.1% in 2010-2011, but the decoupling situation of industrial cities with more high-energy-consuming industries still rebounded slightly. (4) The economic level and energy intensity effect had the most significant impact on the economic decoupling of carbon emissions, whose absolute contribution rates were greater than 35%. Urbanization and economic level both play a positive role in promoting carbon emissions, and the energy intensity plays a negative role in retarding carbon emissions. The population effect was mainly manifested in carbon increase from 2006 to 2011, and 45.2% of the cities from 2011 to 2017 turned into carbon suppression. Finally, we suggest that decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth requires developing green urbanization and a decarbonized economy, optimizing the structure of energy consumption and guiding rational population flow.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services and the Driving Factors in Urban Agglomerations: Evidence From 12 National Urban Agglomerations in China

The natural environment provides multiple ecosystem services for urban development and human quality of life. Given that current cities interact with each other and form urban agglomerations, understanding the spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem services and the driving forces is crucial for sustainable urban development. Using 12 national-level urban agglomerations as a case study, this paper quantifies the spatial patterns of multiple ecosystem service values from 2000 to 2015 and assesses how natural and socioeconomic factors contribute to such changes by using ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results show the following: (1) spatial discrepancies of ecosystem services exist both in and between urban agglomerations, and ecosystem service values are reduced in more than 70% of urban agglomerations at a rate ranging from 0.02 to 4.27%; (2) elevation, precipitation, and fraction of woodland have positive impacts on ecosystem service values in urban agglomerations; while gross domestic product (GDP), population, and proportion of built-up area have negative effects; (3) both natural and social driving factors impact the ecosystem services of different urban agglomeration in different ways, according to the differences in their driving degrees. We categorized 12 urban agglomerations in China into six typical types: natural-factor dominated, socioeconomic-factor dominated, policy dominated, balanced, natural-factor inclined, and socioeconomic-factor inclined. Our results can be used to inform decision makers and urban planners to propose explicit location strategies to balance natural protection and socioeconomic development and ultimately promote sustainable urbanization across the nation.

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Landscape Patterns and Their Effects on Ecosystem Services in the Huaihe River Basin, China

Landscape pattern changes caused by human activities are among the most important driving factors affecting ecosystem spatial structure and components, and significantly impact ecosystem services. Understanding the relationship between landscape patterns and ecosystem services is important for improving regional conservation and establishing ecosystem management strategies. Taking the Huaihe River Basin as an example, this study used land-use data, meteorological data, and topographic data to analyze the spatial and temporal changes in landscape patterns via landscape transfer matrix and landscape indices, and measured four ecosystem services (water retention, soil retention, carbon storage, and biodiversity conservation) with the InVEST models. Furthermore, correlation analysis and global spatial autocorrelation coefficient were used to analyze the impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem services. The results showed grassland and farmland areas had continuously decreased, while built-up land and affected water had significantly increased. Landscape fragmentation was reduced, the connectivity between patches was weakened, landscape heterogeneity, evenness, and patch irregularity were increased. Changes in landscape composition and configuration have affected the ecosystem services of the Huaihe River Basin. The reduction in grassland areas and the increase in built-up land areas have significantly reduced the capacity for soil retention, carbon storage, and biodiversity conservation. Spatially, regions with low landscape fragmentation and high patch connectivity had a higher water retention capacity and biodiversity conservation, while soil retention and carbon storage were opposite. Temporally, reduction of landscape fragmentation and increase of patch shape irregularity had a negative effect on water retention, carbon storage, and biodiversity conservation, while soil retention was not sensitive to these changes. The findings in this paper promote an understanding of the relationship between landscape patterns and ecosystem services on a large scale and provide theoretical guidance for ecosystem management and protection planning in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

Dynamics of urban landscape nexus spatial dependence of ecosystem services in rapid agglomerate cities of Ethiopia

Understanding the dependence of ecosystem services (ESs) on the dynamics of human-semi nature-coupled ecosystems is crucial for urban ecosystem resilience. In the present study, the responses of ESs to land use land cover transitions were explored and compared, selecting Addis Ababa, Adama, Hawassa, and Bahir Dar cities in Ethiopia. The geospatial data and benefit transfer approach was used to estimate the nexus over a three-decade period (1990-2020). Moreover, the bivariate Moran's I and spatial regression models were employed to analyze the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. The findings showed that the built-up increased by 17,341.0 ha (32.2%), 2151.3 ha (19.6%), 2715.2 ha (12.2%), and 2599.7 ha (15.7%) for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively over the investigated periods. Besides, the total ESV weighed by 24.8%, 8.9%, 0.7%, and 3.9% from the US$ 277.9, 55.5, 100.3, and 90.9 million for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively from1990 to 2020. Synergies occurred among local climate regulation and recreation services, and trade-offs existed among other services. A persistent rising trend in the ESVt was found for all cities the upsurge in Addis Ababa being much sturdier than in others. However, the elasticity of ecosystem of land use (EEL) showed that 1% of the LULC transformation was caused by 8.9% changes in ESV. Besides, the results from the global bivariate Moran's I show substantial positive spatial correlations between ESV, and Integrated Land use Dynamic Degree (ILUDD), Land-Use Intensity (LUI), and Land Use Diversity (LUD) (p < 0.001). Spatial lag model and special error model were shown to be fitting more than the Ordinary Least Square in establishing relationships among the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. In contrast, the aggregated ESV is significantly influenced not only by LULC dynamics but also by the spatial spillover effect. Thus, overall findings suggested an antagonistic nexus between the aggregated ESV and ESVf, since 98% of individual ESs were negatively declined as the built-up ecosystem expanded.

Research and Analysis of Ecological Environment Quality in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin between 2000 and 2019

Ecological environment quality is a long-term continuous concept that is affected by various environmental factors. Its assessment has important implications for implementing the planning and protection of dynamic regional ecosystems. Therefore, this study attempted to obtain these indicators (green, dry, wet, heat) through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, and then coupled the ecological environment quality index in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MYRB) between 2000 and 2019, based on the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI). The major results show that: (1) changes in the four indicators in summer were more obvious than those in winter, and the changes were concentrated in the central and northern regions of the MYRB; (2) both the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) and normalized differential build-up and bare soil index (NDBI) in summer and winter have higher weighting ratios, implying that water body changes and human activities had a greater impact on the ecological environment; and (3) ecological environment quality in the MYRB between 2000 and 2019 was relatively flat. The ecological conditions began to deteriorate in 2008, and substantial ecological degradation was noted in some areas between 2008 and 2019 (18.7% in the central region, 16.0% in the eastern region). The MYRB has an important position in the Yangtze River economic belt and is an important part of the Yangtze River protection. This research could provide a theoretical basis and decision support for the development and protection of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) green economy.

Tropical Coastal Land-Use and Land Cover Changes Impact on Ecosystem Service Value during Rapid Urbanization of Benin, West Africa

West African coastal areas including the Beninese coastal zones have undergone an intensification of socio-economic activity in the last few decades that has been strongly driven by the effects of rapid urbanization. This has led to land-use and land cover changes that represent threats to the sustainability of various ecosystem functions. Such dynamics of land use and land cover changes pose challenges to coastal zone management. Correct assessment is vital for policymakers and planners to ensure efficient and sustainable use of the coastal ecosystem services, and it remains crucial to achieving sustainable coastal zone management. This study examines changes in land-use and land cover (LULC) and their impacts on ecosystem services value (ESV) fluctuations in the tropical coastal region of Benin, West Africa. We employed Globe Land 30 image data for the years 2010 and 2020, and the ESV fluctuations during the study period were evaluated using the benefit transfer approach (BTA) with corresponding local coefficients values and the GIS techniques. The results reveal that (1) in the current urbanizing coastal area, the LULC types have changed significantly, with obvious reductions in forest land and waterbodies and a considerable increase in artificial surfaces; (2) the total ESV decreased by 8.51% from USD 7.1557 million in 2010 to USD 6.5941 million in 2020; (3) the intensity of LULC in the coastal region has increased over the last 10 years; (4) regions with high land-use intensity have a high rate of ESV change; and (5) provisioning services are the greatest contributors of ESV (51% in 2010; 41% in 2020), followed by supporting services (37% in 2010; 35% in 2020) and regulating services (25% in 2010; 30% in 2020). Uncontrolled changes in LULC from forest land and waterbodies are the main causes of the loss in total ESV, necessitating urgent measures to improve the coastal ecosystem sustainability through effective planning and policies.

Impacts of Landscape Patterns on Ecosystem Services Value: A Multiscale Buffer Gradient Analysis Approach

In recent decades, substantial changes have occurred in the spatial structure and form of landscapes in metropolises; these have greatly impacted ecosystem provision capacities. Clarifying the impact mechanism of landscape patterns on ecosystem services can provide insights into regional ecological conservation and sustainable development measures. Although previous studies have explored the impacts of landscape patterns on ecosystem services at multiple scales, few studies have been conducted using the buffer gradient analysis approach. Using land-use/cover change data, this study measured the evolution of spatiotemporal features of landscape patterns and ecosystem services value (ESV) with 1, 2, and 3 km buffer-zone scales in Wuhan, China. Econometric models were then used to analyze the impacts of landscape patterns on ecosystem services at different buffer-zone scales. The results demonstrated that rapid urbanization in Wuhan has led to significant changes in landscape patterns, and the landscape pattern metrics exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. The ESV in Wuhan exhibited a steady decline during the study period. Hydrological regulations and waste treatment functions contributed to the largest proportion of ESV, and raw material production functions contributed to the lowest proportion. Landscape pattern metrics exerted a significant influence on ESV; however, this influence varied greatly. The results of this study provide a new understanding of the influence mechanism of landscape patterns on ecosystem services at 1, 2, and 3 km buffer-zone scales. These findings are critical for facilitating landscape planning and regional sustainable development.

Trade-Offs and Synergies of Multiple Ecosystem Services for Different Land Use Scenarios in the Yili River Valley, China

Environmental managers and policymakers increasingly discuss trade-offs between ecosystem services (ESs). However, few studies have used nonlinear models to provide scenario-specific land-use planning. This study determined the effects of different future land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios on ESs in the Yili River Valley, China, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergistic response characteristics. We simulated land-use changes in the Yili River Valley during 2020–2030 under three different scenarios using a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model—business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). Subsequently, we evaluated the water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and nutrient export (NE) ESs by combining the PLUS and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models, thus exploring multiple trade-offs among these four ESs at a regional scale. For the BAU scenario, there are some synergistic effects between WY and SR in the Yili River Valley, in addition to significant trade-off effects between CS and NE. For the ED scenario, the rapid expansion of cropland and constructed land is at the expense of forested grassland, leading to a significant decline in ESs. For the EC scenario, the model predicted that the cumulative regional net future carbon storage, cumulative water retention, and cumulative soil conservation would all increase due to ecological engineering and the revegetation of riparian zones and that formerly steep agricultural land can be effective in improving ESs. Meanwhile, the trade-off effect would be significantly weakened between CS and NE. These results can inform decision makers on specific sites where ecological engineering is implemented. Our findings can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of the interactions between ESs indicators in different scenarios.