Analyzing Land-Use Change Scenarios for Ecosystem Services and their Trade-Offs in the Ecological Conservation Area in Beijing, China

Simulation of land use landscape pattern evolution from a multi-scenario simulation: a case study of Nansi Lake Basin in China

Reasonable regulation of the total amount and layout of land resources is the significant cornerstone for releasing the potential of land resources. This study explored the spatial layout and evolution characteristics of the Nansi Lake Basin from the perspective of land use and simulated the spatial distribution pattern under multiple scenarios in 2035 with the Future Land Use Simulation model which more effectively reflected the process of land use change in the actual situation, revealing the land use change of the Nansi Lake Basin under the influence of different human activities. Analysis indicated that the simulation results obtained using the Future Land Use Simulation model strongly agree with reality. By 2035, the magnitude and spatial distribution of land use landscapes will change significantly under three scenarios. The findings provide a reference for the adjustment of land use planning in the Nansi Lake Basin.

Evaluating the impacts of land use change on ecosystem service values under multiple scenarios in the Hunshandake region of China

Changes in land use in an agro-pastoral region affect the delivery of ecosystem services. The trajectory of future land use change and its impacts on human society are not yet well understood, which poses a challenge to efforts to balance the socioeconomic development with the supply of ecosystem services. Taking the Hunshandake region for a case study, we developed four land use scenarios, and projected the future land use patterns under those scenarios using the GeoSOS-FLUS model. We then assessed the ecosystem service values (ESV) using a modification of the equivalent-coefficient method that accounts for differences in net primary production, and explored the impacts of land use change on ESV from 2018 to 2030. We found important land use conversions among the forest, grassland, and cropland uses, mainly in the southern part of our study area. The presence of ESV change hotspots and cold spots suggested that the changes were clustered in the southeastern part. The ESV gain and loss matrix showed that the land use changes under a scenario that prioritized ecosystem services and the comprehensive development scenario increased ESV from 2018 to 2030 with the conversion of cropland to forest. Our results provide important knowledge to inform land use decisions and facilitate sustainable development in the Hunshandake region.

Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Evaluating the impacts of land-use change (LUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) is necessary for regional sustainable development, especially for the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), an ecologically sensitive and fragile region. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LUC on the ESs and provide valuable information for regional planning and management in the FPENC. To accomplish this, we assessed LUC in the FPENC from 2010 to 2020 and simulated land-use patterns in 2030 under three plausible scenarios: the business as usual scenario (BAUS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then, we quantified five ESs (including crop production, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage) for 2020–2030 and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies among ESs in all scenarios. The results show that FPENC experienced expanding farming land and built-up land throughout 2010–2020. Under the BAUS and EDS from 2000 to 2030, especially EDS, the increase in farming land and built-up land will continue. As a result, crop production and water yield will increase, while soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage will decrease. In contrast, EPS will increase soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage at the cost of a decline in crop production and water yield. These results can provide effective reference information for future regional planning and management in the farming–pastoral ecotone.

Ecosystem services in conservation planning: Assessing compatible vs. incompatible conservation

The compatible conservation of ecosystem services (ES) refers to the sustainable development of a region and the multiple dimensions of the region population's well-being. Applying the ES relationship to systematic conservation planning (SCP) can help determine the protection priorities associated with ES and support good zoning decisions. This study uses Nanchang, China as a case study to construct a multi-scenario ES protection scheme. This includes evaluating the spatial distribution characteristics of four core ES, and the ES relationships in the subregion in Nanchang. The ES relationship is then used to construct three ES conservation scenarios (synergetic, trade-off and incompatible), and the SCP tool is used for zoning. The results show the following. First, the incompatible scenario prioritizes the conservation of supporting services and provisioning services, which support ecological protection and cultivated land security. Second, given a land management and control threshold, the management zones can be compatible with a large proportion of secondary services in the synergetic scenario (22%). Fewer secondary services are compatible under the trade-off scenario (8%). As the compatible secondary service targets increase, each management zone area experiences a nonlinear change. The spatial change is more stable in the synergetic scenario compared to the trade-off scenario, and the space of management zone becomes discrete under the trade-off scenario. Third, the compatibility process has a feedback effect on the ES relationship. Compared with the trade-off scenario, compatible synergetic services are more stable with respect to changes in the ES relationship. Constructing ecological buffer zones takes up cultivated land, decreasing the synergy between carbon sequestration services and food production services. However, ecological buffer zones should play a role in certain areas. The compatibility of increased food production services and habitat services in priority conservation and controlled development zones enhance ES trade-offs. An increase in cultural services is compatible with carbon sequestration services in the ecological buffer zone. This changes the relationship between ES, from having a weak trade-off to having a weak synergy. Creating a compatible ES is a spatial trade-off process; these synergies and trade-offs should be considered in spatial planning. An appropriate proportion of ES should be allocated to each zone, to increase the coordinated management of the urban-rural ecology.

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use Impacts on Habitat Quality in Tianjin Based on the PLUS Model Coupled with the InVEST Model

Land use change is an important cause of habitat quality change. In order to reveal the impact of urban land use change on habitat quality, and to explore sustainable development planning, this paper uses the city of Tianjin, China, as a case study. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was first used to predict land use in 2030 under three scenarios, and the InVEST model was then used to assess habitat quality from 2000 to 2030. This study showed that habitat quality was highly correlated with land use change. The rapid expansion of construction land was the main reason for the year-by-year decline in habitat quality. From 2000 to 2030, habitat quality in Tianjin declined year-by-year according to the average habitat quality values for 2030 for the three scenarios: the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS) > Natural Development Scenario (NPS) > Economic Construction Scenario (ECS). In the EPS, habitat quality will deteriorate and improve. It would be ecologically beneficial to continue to work on the revegetation of the Jizhou area. In the ECS, habitat quality will decline sharply. In Tianjin, urbanization will continue to accelerate. This is a threat to the sustainable development of the city.

Impact of Cereal Production Displacement from Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Service Values in China: Based on Three Cropland Supplement Strategies

The acceleration of global urban expansion constantly occupies high-quality cropland and affects regional food security. The implementation of cropland protection policies has alleviated the pressure of cropland loss worldwide, and thus keeping a dynamic balance of cereal production. Such a displacement of cereal production from the lost cropland to the supplemented cropland has resulted in the massive losses of natural habitats (such as forests, grasslands, and wetlands) as well as ecosystem service values. However, the impact of cereal production displacement caused by different cropland supplement strategies has not been concerned. Therefore, taking China (mainland) as a case, this study used the LANDSCAPE model to simulate cereal production displacement caused by urban expansion and cropland supplement between 2020 and 2040, based on three scales of the Chinese administration system (i.e., the national level, the provincial level, and the municipal level). The natural habitat loss and corresponding ecosystem service value (ESV) loss were assessed. The results show that the national-scale cereal displacement will lead to a large reclamation of cropland in North China, causing the most natural habitat loss (5090 km2), and the least ESV loss (46.53 billion yuan). Cereal production displacement at the provincial and municipal scales will lead to fewer natural habitat losses (4696 km2 and 4954 km2, respectively), but more ESV losses (54.16 billion yuan and 54.02 billion yuan, respectively). Based on the national food security and ecological conservation in China, this study discussed the reasons for the ecological effects of cereal production displacement, direct and indirect natural habitat loss of urban expansion, and cropland protection policies in China. We suggest that China's cropland protection policy should emphasize avoiding large-scale cropland displacement and occupation of natural habitat with high ESV for cropland supplement.

Spatial and Temporal Variation, Simulation and Prediction of Land Use in Ecological Conservation Area of Western Beijing

Exploring land use change is crucial to planning land space scientifically in a region. Taking the ecological conservation area (ECA) in western Beijing as the study area, we employ ArcGIS 10.2, landscape pattern index and multiple mathematical statistics to explore the temporal and spatial variation of land use from 2000 to 2020. Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Markov models were used to simulate and predict the current land use in 2020. The models were evaluated for accuracy, and the more accurate PLUS model was selected and used to simulate and predict the potential land use in the study area in 2030 under two management scenarios. The main findings of this research are: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the construction land increased constantly, and the area of cultivated land and grassland decreased significantly. (2) For predicting the spatial distribution of land use in the study area, the PLUS model was more accurate than the FLUS model. (3) The land-use prediction of the study area in 2030 shows that the area of grassland, forest and water is approximately equal to their corresponding value in 2020, but the construction land increased constantly by occupying the surrounding cultivated land. According to this research, the continuous decrease of cultivated land in favor of increasing construction land will cause losses to the ecological service function of the ECA, which is not beneficial to the sustainable development of the region. Relevant departments should take corresponding measures to reduce this practice and promote sustainable development, particularly in the southern and western areas of the ECA where there is less construction land.

Evolution of Habitat Quality and Its Topographic Gradient Effect in Northwest Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020 Based on the InVEST Model

Regional land use change and ecological security are important fields and have been popular issues in global change research in recent years. Regional habitat quality is also an important embodiment of the service function and health of ecosystems. Taking Shiyan City of Hubei Province as an example, the spatiotemporal differences in habitat quality in Shiyan City were evaluated using the habitat quality module of the InVEST model and GIS spatial analysis method based on DEM and land use data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. According to the habitat quality index values, the habitats were divided into four levels indicating habitat quality: I (very bad), II (bad), III (good), and IV (excellent), and the topographic gradient effect of habitat quality was studied using the topographic position index. The results show the following. (1) The habitat quality of Shiyan City showed relatively high and obvious spatial heterogeneity overall and, more specifically, was high in the northwest and southwest, moderate in the center, and low in the northeast. The higher quality habitats (levels III, IV) were mainly distributed in mountain and hill areas and water areas, while those with lower quality habitats (levels I, II) were mainly distributed in agricultural urban areas. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the overall average habitat quality of Shiyan City first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. Additionally, the habitat area increased with an improvement in the level. There was a trend in habitat transformation moving from low to high quality level, showing a spatial pattern of “rising in the southwest and falling in the northeast”. (3) The habitat quality in the water area and woodland area was the highest, followed by grassland, and that of cultivated land was the lowest. From 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland decreased slightly, while the habitat quality of water increased significantly. (4) The higher the level of the topographic position index, the smaller the change range of land use types with time. The terrain gradient effect of habitat quality was significant. With the increase in terrain level, the average habitat quality correspondingly improved, but the increasing range became smaller and smaller. These results are helpful in revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality caused by land use changes in Shiyan City and can provide a scientific basis for the optimization of regional ecosystem patterns and land use planning and management, and they are of great significance for planning the rational and sustainable use of land resources and the construction of an ecological civilization.