Cost-Effective Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Agriculture of Aragon, Spain

Water quality management could halve future water scarcity cost-effectively in the Pearl River Basin

Reducing water scarcity requires both mitigation of the increasing water pollution and adaptation to the changing availability and demand of water resources under global change. However, state-of-the-art water scarcity modeling efforts often ignore water quality and associated biogeochemical processes in the design of water scarcity reduction measures. Here, we identify cost-effective options for reducing future water scarcity by accounting for water quantity and quality in the highly water stressed and polluted Pearl River Basin in China under various socio-economic and climatic change scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our modeling approach integrates a nutrient model (MARINA-Nutrients) with a cost-optimization procedure, considering biogeochemistry and human activities on land in a spatially explicit way. Results indicate that future water scarcity is expected to increase by a factor of four in most parts of the Pearl River Basin by 2050 under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. Results also show that water quality management options could half future water scarcity in a cost-effective way. Our analysis could serve as an example of water scarcity assessment for other highly water stressed and polluted river basins around the world and inform the design of cost-effective measures to reduce water scarcity.

Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility

Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO₂ greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40-58%), carbon budget (±120 Gt CO₂) and policy costs (±16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.

GHGs Emission from the Agricultural Sector within EU-28: A Multivariate Analysis Approach

Climate mitigation and adaptation planning (CMAP) has recently been implemented across the EU-28 to reduce GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O). Thus, the aim of this study was to provide an overview of GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in the EU-28 from 1990 to 2019, and cluster the EU-28 countries regarding their total GHG emissions. The results emphasize the positive impact of CMAP through a negative trend of the total GHG emissions (−2653.01 thousand tons/year, p < 0.05). Despite the positive and not significant trend of the total CO2 emissions, both CH4 and N2O exhibited a negative and significant trend. At the country scale, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands showed the highest reduction in total GHG emissions, by −282.61thousand tons/year (p < 0.05), −266.40 thousand tons/year (p < 0.05), and −262.91 thousand tons/year (p < 0.05), respectively. The output of the multivariate analysis approach indicates changes in the pattern of GHG emissions between 1990 and 2019, where CO2 emissions decreased in the case of Poland and Czechia. The output of this study highlights the positive impact of CMAP, adopted by EU countries, in minimizing GHG emissions. Despite some fluctuations in CO2 emissions, strategies for attaining carbon neutrality in the agricultural sector, across the European Union, should be pursued.

Pollution Haven Hypothesis of Global CO2, SO2, NOx-Evidence from 43 Economies and 56 Sectors

With the development of trade liberalization, the pollutants emissions embodied in global trade are increasing. The pollution haven hypothesis caused by trade has aroused wide attention. The fragmentation of international production has reshaped trade patterns. The proportion of intermediate product trade in global trade is increasing. However, little has been done to study the pollution haven of different pollutants under different trade patterns. In this paper, major environmental pollutants CO₂ (carbon dioxide), SO₂ (sulfur dioxide), and NO_x (nitrogen oxides) are selected as the research objects. This study investigated the global pollution haven phenomenon in 43 countries and 56 major industries from 2000 to 2014. Based on the MRIO model, the trade mode is divided into three specific patterns: final product trade, intermediate product trade in the last stage of production, and the trade related to the global value chain. The results show that trade liberalization could reduce global CO₂, SO₂, and NOx emissions, and intermediate product trade has a more significant emission reduction effect than final product trade. Trade’s impacts on each country are various, and the main drivers are also different. For example, the European Union avoids becoming a pollution haven mainly through the trade related to the global value chain. The suppressed emissions under this trade pattern are 71.8 Mt CO₂, 2.2 Mt SO₂, 2.2 Mt NO_x. India avoids most pollutants emissions through intermediate product trade. China has become the most serious pollution haven through final product trade. The trade pattern could increase China 829.4 Mt CO₂, 4.5 Mt SO₂, 2.6 Mt NO_x emissions in 2014.