Predicting Breaststroke and Butterfly Stroke Results in Swimming Based on Olympics History

Dryland Performance Tests Are Not Good Predictors of World Aquatics Points in Elite Male and Female Swimmers

Background: Swim performance can be reliant on strength and power. Standardisation of swim performance in different events, distances, and sexes can be completed using World Aquatics points, allowing for ranking of swimmers. The aim of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to assess whether relationships between World Aquatics points and dryland markers of performance existed in male and female elite swimmers separately and combined. Methods: Dryland tests included Optojump® photoelectric cell countermovement jump, countermovement jump reach with a Vertec® system, standing broad jump using a tape measure, repetition maximum testing in the barbell back squat, barbell deadlift, and barbell bench press. Swim performance data and dryland test data on elite male (n = 38) and female (n = 20) Scottish swimmers from 2009-2017 were collected. Swim performance data were converted to World Aquatics federation points, and Bayesian linear regression analyses examined relationships between World Aquatics points and dryland performance tests: countermovement jump height (cm) using an Optojump® photoelectric cells system, countermovement jump height (cm) using a Vertec® device, standing broad jump distance (cm), relative strength (load lifted (kg) per kg of body mass) in the barbell bench press (kg/kg), barbell back squat (kg/kg), barbell deadlift (kg/kg). Results: The Bayesian estimates of change of World Aquatics points for a unit change in jump-based measures were: Optojump®-men = 0.6, women = 0.6, combined = 0.4; Vertec®-men = 4.3, women = -1.6, combined = 2.4; standing broad jump-men = 0, women = 0, combined = 0.4. Strength-based measures were: barbell back squat-men = 2.3, women = 22, combined = -2.5; barbell deadlift-men = -5; barbell bench press-men = 41.8. Conclusions: Dryland performance tests are not good predictors of World Aquatics points and should rather be used for assessing training quality and monitoring injury risks.

Prediction and Analysis of Tokyo Olympic Games Swimming Results: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Swimmers' Performance

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2019-2020 season, swimming competitions and training have been limited leading to a setback in performances. The study analyzed if, during the subsequent season, swimmers' have been able to regain the lost performance. Swimming time trends were analyzed comparing Tokyo with Rio Olympics and with mathematically predicted results. The gap between the gold medalist and the last finalist, and the differences between men and women have also been considered. Swimming competition results of females and males, in 100 m and 200 m Freestyle and Backstroke, were collected from the Olympics' official website. Results showed that at Tokyo Olympics almost all swimmers' times improved as compared to Rio's. Analysis of performance trends highlighted that performance progression does not proceed in a linear fashion and that is best predicted by more recent results. Women's progression was higher than men's and the gap between the first and last finalist constantly decreased, except for the Tokyo Olympics. In conclusion, the unprecedented Tokyo Olympic Games and qualification year seems not to have disrupted all Olympic swimmers' performance, suggesting that stakeholders support and athlete's coping ability might safeguard the subsistence of performance.

Erratum: Hołub et al. Predicting Breaststroke and Butterfly Stroke Results in Swimming Based on Olympics History. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 6621

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