States Transitions Inference of Postpartum Depression Based on Multi-State Markov Model

An Evaluation of the Health Economics of Postnatal Depression Prevention and Treatment Strategies in China: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The primary objectives of this study are to assess the cost-effectiveness of early postnatal screening and prenatal psychological interventions for the prevention and treatment of postpartum depression (PPD) among Chinese pregnant women. Additionally, we aim to explore the most cost-effective prevention and treatment strategies for PPD in China.

METHODS

We used TreeAge 2019 to construct a decision tree model, with the model assuming a simulated queue size of 10,000 people. The model employed Monte Carlo simulation to assess the cost-effectiveness of PPD prevention and treatment strategies. Transfer probabilities were derived from published studies and meta-analyses. Cost and effectiveness data were obtained from published sources and relevant studies. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were used to describe the results, with willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds set at China's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

RESULTS

Compared to the usual care group, the cost per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for the early postnatal screening group and the prenatal psychological interventions is USD 6840.28 and USD 3720.74, respectively. The cure rate of mixed treatments for PPD has the greatest impact on the model, while patient participation in treatment has a minor impact on the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment strategies.

CONCLUSION

Both early postnatal screening and prenatal psychological interventions are found to be highly cost-effective strategies for preventing and treating PPD in China. Prenatal psychological interventions for pregnant women are the most cost-effective prevention and treatment strategy. As such, from the perspective of national payers, we recommend that maternal screening for PPD be implemented in China to identify high-risk groups early on and to facilitate effective intervention.

Wife-Mother Role Conflict at the Critical Child-Rearing Stage: A Machine-Learning Approach to Identify What and How Matters in Maternal Depression Symptoms in China

Maternal depression (MD) was one of the most prevalent psychiatric problems worldwide. However, it easily remains untreated and misses the best time to prevent the emergence or worsening of major depressive symptoms due to under-observed stigma and the lack of effective screening tools. Thus, this study aims to develop and validate a machine learning-based MD symptoms prediction model integrating more observable and objective factors to early detect and monitor MD risk. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 10 community vaccination centers in Wenzhou, China, and a total of 1099 mothers were surveyed by using purposive sampling. A questionnaire containing questions regarding socio-demographic variables, psychophysiological variables, wife role-related variables, and mother role-related variables was used to collect data. A framework of data preprocessing, feature selection, and model evaluation was implemented to develop an optimal risk prediction model. Results demonstrated that the XG-Boost algorithm provided robust performance with the highest AUC and well-balanced sensitivity and specificity (AUC = 0.90, sensitivity = 0.74, specificity = 0.90). Furthermore, the causal mediation analysis indicated that wife-mother role conflict positively predicted MD symptoms, and it also exerted influence on mothers suffering through the mediation of anxiety and insomnia. Findings from the present study may help guide the development of MD screening tools to early detect and provide the modifiable risk factor information for timely tailored prevention.

Estimating Bidirectional Transitions and Identifying Predictors of Mild Cognitive Impairment

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Various resources exist for treating mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia separately as terminal events or for focusing solely on a 1-way path from MCI to dementia without taking into account heterogeneous transitions. Little is known about the trajectory of reversion from MCI to normal cognition (NC) or near-NC and patterns of postreversion, which refers to cognitive trajectories of patients who have reversed from MCI to NC. Our objectives were to (1) quantitatively predict bidirectional transitions of MCI (reversion and progression), (2) explore patterns of future cognitive trajectories for postreversion, and (3) estimate the effects of demographic characteristics, APOE, cognition, daily activity ability, depression, and neuropsychiatric symptoms on transition probabilities.

METHODS

We constructed a retrospective cohort by reviewing patients with an MCI diagnosis at study entry and at least 2 follow-up visits between June 2005 and February 2021. Defining NC or near-NC and MCI as transient states and dementia as an absorbing state, we used continuous-time multistate Markov models to estimate instantaneous transition intensity between states, transition probabilities from one state to another at any given time during follow-up, and hazard ratios of reversion-related variables.

RESULTS

Among 24,220 observations from 6,651 participants, there were 2,729 transitions to dementia and 1,785 reversions. As for postreversion, there were 630 and 73 transitions of progression to MCI and dementia, respectively. The transition intensity of progression to MCI for postreversion was 0.317 (2.48-fold greater than that for MCI progression or reversion). For postreversion participants, the probability of progressing to dementia increased by 2% yearly. Participants who progressed to MCI were likely to reverse again (probability of 40% over 15 years). Age, independence level, APOE, cognition, daily activity ability, depression, and neuropsychiatric symptoms were significant predictors of bidirectional transitions.

DISCUSSION

The nature of bidirectional transitions cannot be ignored in multidimensional MCI research. We found that postreversion participants remained at an increased risk of progression to MCI or dementia over the longer term and experienced recurrent reversions. Our findings may serve as a valuable reference for future research and enable health care professionals to better develop proactive management plans and targeted interventions.

Group-Based Trajectory Analysis for Postpartum Depression Symptoms among Chinese Primiparous Women

Background: Subgroups of individuals sharing similar patterns of postpartum depression (PPD) among Chinese women are unknown thus far. Using a group-based trajectory model, this study aimed to explore the subgroups of Chinese primiparous women that share similar patterns of PPD and to explore the predictors of PPD trajectory membership over the course of the first six months postpartum. Methods: In total, 674 first-time Chinese mothers were recruited, and their depression status was assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) at four time points. Findings: Around 18.0% of participants belonging to Group 1 labeled as “few or no symptoms” remained stable, with an EPDS score of less than 5 during a six-month postpartum period. Almost one-third of subjects fell within the second trajectory, labeled “subclinical but present symptoms”, and peaked into the range of mild PPD but mostly stayed in the minimal range and had few or no PPD symptoms. Group 3 included 31.2% of women labeled “minor PPD status”, and their mean EPDS scores increased to a peak of 14.66 at six weeks postpartum. Group 4, with “major PPD status”, comprised 19.2% of the population, and the mean EPDS scores dramatically increased, reaching a peak of 19.59 at 12 weeks postpartum. Fewer types of support and not attending parenting training were associated with membership in the minor and major PPD status trajectories. Conclusions: Almost half of the Chinese new mothers in the study were found to fall into the two groups with minor or major PPD status trajectories, who should be given more attention and awareness from health professionals and researchers. Understanding predictors of group membership could help health providers to identify folks to prioritize getting connected to care as well as forming targeted interventions. Less degree of received support and not attending parenting training were identified to predict PPD trajectory membership. The regular, routine screening of PPD should be conducted at least 12 weeks postpartum, especially for new mothers in the major PPD status trajectory.