Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec

Risky business: human-related data is lacking from Lyme disease risk models

Used as a communicative tool for risk management, risk maps provide a service to the public, conveying information that can raise risk awareness and encourage mitigation. Several studies have utilized risk maps to determine risks associated with the distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causal agent of Lyme disease in North America and Europe, as this zoonotic disease can lead to severe symptoms. This literature review focused on the use of risk maps to model distributions of B. burgdorferi and its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), in North America to compare variables used to predict these spatial models. Data were compiled from the existing literature to determine which ecological, environmental, and anthropic (i.e., human focused) variables past research has considered influential to the risk level for Lyme disease. The frequency of these variables was examined and analyzed via a non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis to compare different map elements that may categorize the risk models performed. Environmental variables were found to be the most frequently used in risk spatial models, particularly temperature. It was found that there was a significantly dissimilar distribution of variables used within map elements across studies: Map Type, Map Distributions, and Map Scale. Within these map elements, few anthropic variables were considered, particularly in studies that modeled future risk, despite the objective of these models directly or indirectly focusing on public health intervention. Without including human-related factors considering these variables within risk map models, it is difficult to determine how reliable these risk maps truly are. Future researchers may be persuaded to improve disease risk models by taking this into consideration.

Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia

Background

Colombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.

Methodology/Principal findings

We analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week. The trajectory and velocity of spread was studied using trend surface analysis, and spatio-temporal high-risk clusters for each disease in separate and for the three diseases simultaneously (multivariate) were identified using Kulldorff’s scan statistics. During the study period, there were 366,628, 77,345 and 74,793 cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively, in Colombia. The spread patterns for chikungunya and Zika were similar, although Zika’s spread was accelerated. Both chikungunya and Zika mainly spread from the regions on the Atlantic coast and the south-west to the rest of the country. We identified 21, 16, and 13 spatio-temporal clusters of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, respectively, and, from the multivariate analysis, 20 spatio-temporal clusters, among which 7 were simultaneous for the three diseases. For all disease-specific analyses and the multivariate analysis, the most-likely cluster was identified in the south-western region of Colombia, including the Valle del Cauca department.

Conclusions/Significance

The results further our understanding of emerging Aedes-borne diseases in Colombia by providing useful evidence on their potential site of entry and spread trajectory within the country, and identifying spatio-temporal disease-specific and multivariate high-risk clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, information that can be used to target interventions.

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are diseases transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. Between 2014 and 2016 chikungunya and Zika viruses started causing outbreaks in Colombia, one of the countries historically most affected by dengue. We used case counts of the diseases by municipality and week to study the spread trajectory of chikungunya and Zika within Colombia’s territory, and to identify space-time high-risk clusters, i.e., the areas and time periods that dengue, chikungunya, and Zika were more present. Chikungunya and Zika spread similarly in Colombia, but Zika spread faster. The Atlantic coast, a famous touristic destination in the country, was likely the place of entry of chikungunya and Zika in Colombia. The south-western region was identified as a high-risk cluster for all three diseases in separate and simultaneously. This region has a favorable climate for the Aedes mosquitoes and other characteristics that facilitate the diseases’ transmission, such as social deprivation and high population mobility. Our results provide useful information on the locations that should be prioritized for interventions to prevent the entry of new diseases transmitted by Aedes and to reduce the burden of dengue, chikungunya and Zika where they are established.