Simulating the Effect of Mixed Subsidy Policies on Urban Low-Value Recyclable Waste in China: A System Dynamics Approach

Design and simulation of a cross-regional collaborative recycling system for secondary resources: A case of lead-acid batteries

In emerging economies, a significant amount of secondary resources are recycled by the informal sector, which can seriously harm the environment. However, some previous studies of industry management policy design ignored geographical factors. This paper introduces Geographic Information Systems into an agent-based cross-regional recycling model, and employs lead-acid batteries as an example. The model quantitatively displays the evolution of recycling markets in 31 provinces in Mainland China. Results show that: (1) High subsidies can significantly increase the number of formal enterprises in the short term, but their effectiveness decreases when the proportion of government funds in subsidies is above 80% in the long run; (2) The number of illegal recycling enterprises increases by 294% in eight inland provinces (e.g., Ningxia, Xinjiang) when all funds are invested in supervision, but this number is quite small in subsidy policy scenarios; (3) In four eastern regions, including Beijing and Tianjin, the number of illegal recycling enterprises decreases by 84% if supervision is more favored than subsidy; (4) In the optimal case where spatiotemporal factors are considered in all 31 regions, illegal recycling enterprises and waste lead emissions can be reduced by 95.59% and 45.85% nationwide. Our proposed recycling model offers a detailed simulation of multiple regions and diverse stakeholders, and serves as a useful reference for targeted recovery policies. Governments in inland regions like Ningxia and Xinjiang should implement subsidy policies, while supervision policies should be implemented in developed regions like Beijing and Tianjin.

The Generation and Effects for Recyclable Waste from Households in a Megapolis: A Case Study in Shanghai

Shanghai is one of the world-leading megapolises facing the challenge of ecological sustainable development. The recyclable waste from households (RWH) generated in Shanghai has increased rapidly since the implementation of garbage classification in 2019. However, there are no rigorous data on the generation and collection of RWH, and the corresponding countermeasures are required to be studied. This paper attempted to investigate RWH generation and identify the effects of RWH recycling in Shanghai. We used questionnaires combined with a field survey to investigate the competent authorities and leading recycling enterprises to analyze the characteristics of RWH generation. We conducted a monthly survey of 52 leading recycling enterprises in 11 typical districts for 2020. We also identified the main influencing factors of RWH generation using a multiple linear regression model. In addition, we popularized the model to estimate Shanghai’s RWH generation rate. Results show that data from leading recycling enterprises surveys were more accurate and reached a maximum of 82,104.77 kg/cap/month in November 2020. Higher RWH generation was found in suburban districts at 36,396.20 kg/cap/month. Shanghai’s RWH generation rate was 6253.60 t/d through model calculation. The educational level of household managers, regional economic condition, resident population, and disposable income impact RWH generation. Based on the abovementioned results, the implications for RWH management were discussed. We propose to promote the combination of theoretical simulation and information data platform construction. Meanwhile, it is also necessary to improve the capacity of the collection and transport system and accelerate the construction of pre-treatment bases in Shanghai.

Analysis of the Dilemma of Promoting Circular Logistics Packaging in China: A Stochastic Evolutionary Game-Based Approach

The environmental pollution caused by logistics packaging in China has attracted increasing attention in recent years, and circular packaging is considered an effective means to solve the aforementioned problem. Therefore, this study considers the uncertainty of the external environment; constructs a stochastic game model of circular logistics-packaging promotion, which consists of environmental regulators, logistics enterprises, and consumers; collects data related to logistics packaging in China to describe the current circular-packaging promotion dilemma; and conducts a parameter-sensitivity analysis. The results show that (1) after a short period of fluctuation, the environmental regulator will lock in the "strong regulation" strategy, whereas logistics enterprises and consumers will quickly lock in the "no promotion" and "negative use" strategies. (2) The change in the initial probability will affect the rate of strategy evolution of the gaming system. (3) The "strong regulatory" strategy of environmental regulators and the increase in the number of circular-packaging cycles can help establish a logistics-recycling-packaging system. (4) The increase in recycling incentives can cause consumers to shift toward "active use" strategies, but this has accelerated the rate at which logistics companies lock into "no promotion" strategies. (5) The increase in the intensity of random interference will raise the fluctuation of the evolution of the game subject. For logistics enterprises, moderate random interference helps them evolve toward the "promotion" strategy.