Gray Forecast of Ecosystem Services Value and Its Driving Forces in Karst Areas of China: A Case Study in Guizhou Province, China

Understanding the intricate tradeoffs among ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration across spatiotemporal features

Revealing the intricate interactions between ecosystem services and their values is essential for the comprehensive management of diverse ecosystems. However, understanding tradeoffs among various ecosystem services and their influencing factors, especially at different spatial scales, remains challenging, primarily due to the difficulty in quantifying cultural services. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the ecosystem service value (ESV) at both grid and county scales in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020, considering the representation of different ecosystem services. Our investigation aimed to elucidate tradeoffs among ecosystem services and identify key natural-social-economic-climate drivers. The key findings are as follows: (1) Over the study period, the overall ESV in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration exhibited an upward trend, with regulation of waterflows, water body, and forest land making the largest contributions. (2) At the grid scale, there were 3 tradeoffs and 52 synergies among multiple ecosystem services in 2000, which increased to 18 tradeoffs in 2020, indicating a considerable degradation of numerous ecosystem services. Conversely, at the county scale, all ecosystem services exhibited a synergistic relationship. (3) The most significant synergistic effect was observed between regulation of waterflows and maintenance of soil fertility, while the most prominent tradeoff effect was identified between food production and waste treatment. (4) Social-economic factors exerted a more substantial influence on ESV, followed by climate factors, whereas the impact of natural factors was limited. GDP emerged as the primary single driver of total ESV, while farmland production potential played a crucial role in shaping the 11 ecosystem services. Notably, GDP-temperature and GDP-farmland production potential output were identified as the most influential dual factors. These findings underscore the importance of simultaneously enhancing economic development, controlling temperature rise, and improving food production as essential measures to enhance ESV.

Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of urban ecosystem service value based on CLUE-S and GM (1,1) compound model

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is a significant indicator related to regional ecological well-being. Evaluating ESV premised on continuous time series land benefit data can provide an accurate reference for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. Taking Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province as an example, the study analyzed land use changes based on the land use data of the continuous time series from 2000 to 2020 and introduced a socio-economic adjustment factor and biomass factor adjustment factor to construct a dynamic assessment model of ecosystem service value. The spatiotemporal changes of the ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang City were evaluated, and the dynamic prediction of the ecosystem service value was made using the CLUE-S model and the GM (1,1) model. (1) The changes in the overall ESV and spatial pattern in Shijiazhuang are strongly linked to the change in land use, and the contribution of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland to ecosystem service value exceeds 90%. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, the value of ecosystem services illustrated a dynamic change and gradually declined, with the total amount falling from 28.003 to 19.513 billion yuan. Among individual ecosystem services, the value of regulation services suffered the most serious loss. (3) CLUE-S and GM (1,1) perform well in the prediction of ESV. The prediction outcomes illustrate that the ecosystem service value of Shijiazhuang will continue to decline by 2025, and the ecosystem value will drop to 16.771 billion yuan. This research may offer a reference for the dynamic assessment of ESV of the continuous sequence and help to promote regional ecological protection and sustainable development.

Exploring the coupling and decoupling relationship of urbanization and carbon emissions in China

Burgeoning urbanization is a defining challenge for global carbon emissions mitigation in the coming decades. In this context, achieving low-carbon urbanization remains an urgent issue that demands prompt solutions. The coupling and decoupling relationships between urbanization and carbon emissions play an important role in the coordination of urbanization development and carbon emissions reduction, which has rarely been explored in existing studies, especially in China at the county level. To address this gap, the coupling and decoupling relationship between the urbanization level (UL) and carbon emissions density (CED) was explored using an improved coupling degree model and the Tapio decoupling method in China at the county level from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the UL and CED of China both exhibited increasing trends, and the spatial distribution was quite similar, with the UL increasing from 0.018 in 2000 to 0.028 in 2020 and the CED increasing from 95.163 ton/km2 in 2000 to 295.746 ton/km2 in 2020. The spatial distribution of hotspots in the UL change differed with time, whereas that in the CED change was relatively stable. However, both of them were concentrated in eastern China. The coupling degrees of the UL and CED in China were 0.348, 0.355, 0.369, 0.370, and 0.338 in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, respectively, with the moderately unbalanced type (>35%) being dominant at the county level and mainly scattered in eastern China. The changes in the spatial distribution patterns of the 10 subcategories were quite limited, with the systematically balanced type being dominant (89%). The decoupling types of the UL and CED during 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015 were weak decoupling, while those in 2015-2020 were expansive negative decoupling. At the county level, the most significant transition occurred between expansive negative decoupling, strong decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. The proportion of strong decoupling type counties peaked in 2015-2020 (70.86%), whereas that of the strong negative decoupling type counties remained high (17.55%), scattering the country. These findings can advance policy enlightenment of low-carbon urbanization and green development for China against the backdrop of "30·60 dual carbon" goal.

Refined revealing the chain path of multiple ecosystem services under diverse environmental factor gradients

A fragile karst ecosystem presents ecosystem services affected by the environment and interactions between ecosystem services. However, the ecosystem in the karst area is characterized by low environmental capacity and low resistance to force disturbance. Current research mainly focuses on the trade-off/synergy of ecosystem services in the karst area yet it lacks inductive analysis of the multiple chain path among ecosystem services. This paper quantitatively identified dominant factors influencing spatial differentiation of surface runoff, soil moisture, sediment yield, and net primary productivity (NPP) and determined the chain path. The chain paths of surface runoff-soil moisture-NPP and NPP-surface runoff-sediment yield were analyzed. The results showed that land use and soil type were the dominant factors, and chain effects of ecosystem services were diverse under the various dominant factor gradients. The mediation effects of paddy soil (97.21 %) and mountain meadow soil (55.56 %) were high, and surface runoff had a greater impact on NPP by affecting soil moisture. Among the diverse land use types, the mediation effect of surface runoff on NPP affecting sediment yield varied greatly (from 5 to 100 %). In addition, its variation trend was consistent with that of the soil moisture as the mediation variable. The mediation effect of surface runoff on construction land was the highest (99.43 %). This study provides the scientific basis for selecting more effective water and soil conservation measures by analyzing the chain relationships of multiple ecosystem services under different environmental factor gradients.

Construction of an Ecological Network Based on an Integrated Approach and Circuit Theory: A Case Study of Panzhou in Guizhou Province

Protecting ecological security has become the backbone of social and economic development since declines in ecological quality due to an increase in human dominance over the natural environment. The establishment of ecological networks is an effective, comprehensive spatial regulation means to ensure regional ecological security. Panzhou city, as a case study, is a typical karst county and has been confronted with the pressure of ecological degradation in recent decades. In this study, an integrated approach combining ecological quality (EQ), ecosystem function importance (EFI), and morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) was developed to determine the ecological sources. Ecological corridors, ecological pinch areas, and ecological barriers were extracted using circuit theory to identify the restored and conserved priority areas of ecological security patterns. The results showed that (1) the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and EFI exhibited typical geographical distributions, with the highest values concentrated in the northern and southern parts of the study area and the lowest values scattered in the middle part; (2) 26 patches with forestland, grassland, and waterbodies as the main land cover types were selected as the ecological sources; (3) 63 ecological corridors, composed of 45 key ecological corridors and 18 inactive ecological corridors, were extracted, accounting for 203.12 km and 163.31 km, respectively; (4) 82.76 km2 of pinch areas and 320.29 km2 of barriers were identified, both of which were distributed on key ecological corridors and played different roles in ecological security; and (5) 4 types of ecological security zones were established according to ecological sources, corridors, pinch areas, and barriers. This integrated approach provides a scientific method for the identification and implementation of ecological networks that can contribute to protecting regional ecological security. Our findings can serve as applicable and reasonable guidance to land administrators and policy-makers for adopting suitable territorial spatial planning, urban planning, green cities, etc.

Spatiotemporal Changes in Ecosystem Services Value and Its Driving Factors in the Karst Region of China

Over the last few decades, most regional ecosystem services (ESs) have significantly deteriorated, primarily driven by an increase in human dominance over the natural environment. Creating an assessment framework of ESs and identifying its driving factors at the regional scale is challenging for researchers, administrators, and policy-makers. In this study, we attempt to quantify the economic value of ESs (ESV) in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2018, one of the most prominent areas of karst landforms in China. We identified the major factors affecting ESs using the geographical detector (GD) model. Then, we conducted a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) analysis to examine the spatial differentiation of the causal effects of both natural and anthropogenic factors on ESs. Our results demonstrate the following: (1) the total ESV of Guizhou Province was approximately USD 81,764.32 million in 2000, USD 82,411.06 million in 2010, and USD 82,065.31 million in 2018, and the increase of USD 300.99 million from 2000 to 2018 was the result of the remarkable conversion from cultivated land to forestland; (2) significantly considerable differentiation existed in the spatial distribution of ESV at the county level, with a higher value in the eastern region and a lower value in the western region; (3) among the driving factors, population density had a more significant effect on the spatial differentiation of ESV than did natural factors; and (4) agricultural output value was the dominant factor influencing the ESV during the study period, with a significantly positive correlation, whereas per capita GDP and population density had significantly negative impacts on ESV, according to the effective performance of the MGWR model that evaluated the spatial heterogeneity in geospatial relationships between the driving factors of ESV. Our findings can provide notable guidance to land administrators and policy-makers for effective land resource conservation and management plans, thereby improving regional sustainability.