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Xu M, Sun Y, Wang H, Qi P, Peng Z, Wu Y, Zhang G. Altitude characteristics in the response of rain-on-snow flood risk to future climate change in a high-latitude water tower. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 369:122292. [PMID: 39232328 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2024] [Revised: 07/31/2024] [Accepted: 08/24/2024] [Indexed: 09/06/2024]
Abstract
Global warming is profoundly impacting snowmelt runoff processes in seasonal freeze-thaw zones, thereby altering the risk of rain-on-snow (ROS) floods. These changes not only affect the frequency of floods but also alter the allocation of water resources, which has implications for agriculture and other key economic sectors. While these risks present a significant threat to our lives and economies, the risk of ROS floods triggered by climate change has not received the attention it deserves. Therefore, we chose Changbai Mountain, a water tower in a high-latitude cold zone, as a typical study area. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT is coupled with CMIP6 meteorological data, and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) are selected after bias correction, thus quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Changbai Mountain region as well as future evolution of the ROS flood risk. The results indicate that: (1) Under future climate change scenarios, snowmelt in most areas of the Changbai Mountains decreases. The annual average snowmelt under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 is projected to be 148.65 mm, 135.63 mm, 123.44 mm, and 116.5 mm, respectively. The onset of snowmelt is projected to advance in the future. Specifically, in the Songhua River (SR) and Yalu River (YR) regions, the start of snowmelt is expected to advance by 1-11 days. Spatially, significant reductions in snowmelt were observed in both the central part of the watershed and the lower reaches of the river under SSP585 scenario. (2) In 2021-2060, the frequency of ROS floods decreases sequentially for different scenarios, with SSP 126 > SSP 245 > SSP 370 > SSP 585. The frequency increments of ROS floods in the source area for the four scenarios were 0.12 days/year, 0.1 d/yr, 0.13 days/year, and 0.15 days/year, respectively. The frequency of high-elevation ROS events increases in the YR in the low emission scenario. Conversely, in high emission scenarios, YR high-elevation ROS events will only increase in 2061-2100. This phenomenon is more pronounced in the Tumen River (TR), where floods become more frequent with increasing elevation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moran Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun, 130102, China; Institute of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin, 150080, China
| | - Yingna Sun
- Institute of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin, 150080, China
| | - Haiqing Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun, 130102, China; Institute of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin, 150080, China
| | - Peng Qi
- State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun, 130102, China.
| | - Zhaohui Peng
- Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources in Jilin Province, Changchun, 130022, China
| | - Yao Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun, 130102, China
| | - Guangxin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun, 130102, China
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Chi H, Wu Y, Zheng H, Zhang B, Sun Z, Yan J, Ren Y, Guo L. Spatial patterns of climate change and associated climate hazards in Northwest China. Sci Rep 2023; 13:10418. [PMID: 37369846 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-37349-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Northwest China (NWC) is experiencing noticeable climate change accompanied with increasing impacts of climate hazards induced by changes in climate extremes. Towards developing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative climatic impacts on both the ecosystem and socioeconomic system of the region, this study investigates systematically the spatial patterns of climate change and the associated climate hazards across NWC based on high resolution reanalysis climate dataset for the period 1979 to 2018. We find that NWC overall is under a warming and wetting transition in climate with change rate of temperature and precipitation around 0.49 °C/10a and 22.8 mm/10a respectively. Characteristics of climate change over the NWC however vary considerably in space. According to significance of long-term trends in both temperature and aridity index for each 0.1° × 0.1° grids, five types of climate change are identified across NWC, including warm-wetting, warm-drying, warm without wetting, wetting without warming and unchanging. The warm-wetting zone accounts for the largest proportion of the region (41%) and mainly locates in the arid or semi-arid northwestern NWC. Our findings show most region of NWC is under impacts of intensifying heatwave and rainstorm due to significant increases in high temperature extremes and precipitation extremes. The warming but without wetting zone is found under a more severe impact of heatwave, particularly for areas near northern Mount. Qinling and northern Loess Plateau. Areas with stronger wetting trend is suffering more from rainstorm.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haojing Chi
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China
- International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing, 100094, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Yanhong Wu
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China.
- International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing, 100094, China.
| | | | - Bing Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China
- International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing, 100094, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Zhonghua Sun
- Network and Information Center of Changjiang River Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, 430010, Hubei, China
| | - Jiaheng Yan
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China
- International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing, 100094, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Yongkang Ren
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China
- International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing, 100094, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Linan Guo
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China
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Wang X, Zhao Z, Zhang Z, Ren M, Sagris T. Design Rainfall Change of Rainwater Source Control Facility to Meet Future Scenarios in Beijing. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4355. [PMID: 36901378 PMCID: PMC10001905 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Revised: 02/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Rainwater source control facilities are essential to sponge city construction in China. Their size is determined based on historical rainfall data. However, with global warming and rapid urban development, rainfall characteristics have also changed, potentially leading to the failure of rainwater source- control facilities to manage surface water in the future. In this study, the design rainfall's change and spatial distribution are analyzed using historical (1961-2014) observation rainfall data and future (2020-2100) projection data of three CMIP6 climate models. The results show that EC-Earth3 and GFDL-ESM4 project that future design rainfall will increase. EC-Earth3 projects a significant increase, while MPI-ESM1-2 projects that the design rainfall will decrease significantly. From the perspective of space, the design rainfall isoline in Beijing has always increased from northwest to southeast. In the historical period, the difference in design rainfall in different regions has reached 19 mm, and this regional heterogeneity shows an increasing trend in the future projection of EC-Earth3 and GFDL-ESM4. The difference in design rainfall in different regions is 26.2 mm and 21.7 mm, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to consider future rainfall changes in the design of rainwater source control facilities. The relationship curve between the volume capture ratio (VCR) of annual rainfall and design rainfall based on the rainfall data of the project site or region should be analyzed to determine the design rainfall of the rainwater source control facilities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuerao Wang
- Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China
| | - Zhiyong Zhao
- Arup International Consultants (Shanghai) Company Limited, Shanghai 200031, China
| | - Zhiming Zhang
- Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China
| | - Meifang Ren
- China Academy of Urban Planning & Design, Beijing 100044, China
| | - Thomas Sagris
- Arup International Consultants (Shanghai) Company Limited, Shanghai 200031, China
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