The Dynamic Evolution of Global Energy Security and Geopolitical Games: 1995~2019

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, soaring international energy prices, and implications for global economic policies

This study examines the economic impact of soaring international energy prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict from February 23, 2022, to May 31, 2022. Notably, by applying a CGE model, this study offers insights into energy policies at both macroeconomic and industrial levels, emphasizing the model's utility in analyzing complex economic interactions under geopolitical stress. Findings indicate that: (1) Russia, a critical energy-producing country, faced severe economic setbacks due to sanctions, with its GDP contracting by 5.5 %, household income decreasing by 4 %, and consumer spending dropping by 3.5 %. This was accompanied by a significant reduction in domestic investment by 6 %, a decline in output by 5 %, and a decrease in societal welfare indicators. (2) Other energy-producing countries or regions, such as the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, experienced economic benefits from the global energy market's "crowding-out effect." These regions saw an increase in GDP ranging from 2 % to 4.5 %, output growth by 3 %-6 %, and household income and consumption improvements by approximately 3 %-5 %. However, these benefits were tempered by a 1 %-2.5 % decline in domestic investment due to rising local energy costs. (3) Developed and developing regions, suffered adverse impacts, including the US, UK, EU, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle Eastern non-oil-producing countries, and Africa. These regions reported a decrease in GDP by 0.5 %-3 %, a decline in household income by 2 %-4 %, and lower consumption rates by 1.5 %-3.5 %. The economic strain was further exacerbated by an inflation increase of up to 2 % across these economies. This research offers valuable insights for governments and policymakers globally to address the challenges posed by the Ukraine crisis-induced energy crisis, underscoring the need for strategic energy policy adjustments and economic resilience planning.

Towards energy sustainability: Exploring the nexus between global value chain participation and energy security in developing and developed countries

International trade has a significant impact on global environmental quality and sustainable economic development. Global value chains (GVCs) have become a crucial component of international trade and development policy. The global production structure has become more complicated with the inclusion of domestic markets in GVC, putting significant pressure on world energy resources and environmental sustainability. Therefore, traditional trade measures no longer accurately reflect how global trade affects the energy security of developing and developed countries. Thus, this study is the first to use a panel-corrected standard error method to look at the relationship between GVC participation and energy security by using a global sample of 35 developed and 27 developing nations from 1995 to 2018. A feasible generalized least squares model was also applied to confirm the robustness of the model. Six indicators-foreign direct investment, industrialization level, capital formation, human capital index, political stability, and GVC-were used in this research to look at their impact on the four fundamental pillars of energy security (availability, applicability, sustainability, and affordability) for sustainable economic development. For developed countries, it was confirmed that there is a non-linear relationship between GVC participation and energy intensity, renewable energy consumption, and non-fossil fuel use. In the case of developing countries, the non-linear relationship in terms of all aspects of energy security was also confirmed. The findings also indicated that GVC's involvement benefits all four dimensions of energy security in both developing and developed countries once it reaches a certain threshold. Our findings further support the impacts of long-term cointegration between GVC and energy security for sustainable economic development. Therefore, the nations must promote technology transfer and capacity building within GVCs for inclusive energy security. Similarly, they may foster sustainable practices through collaborative governance for a stable global energy network by acknowledging the positive impact of income levels on energy security.

The significance of clean energy development for China's energy security from 2010 to 2019

Energy security is a matter of economic security and national security. This paper examines the influencing mechanism of clean energy on China's energy security from 2010 to 2019, by using the entropy method and spatial econometric model. The results show that (1) from 2010 to 2019, China's energy security index shows an overall decreasing trend. The western region has the highest energy security index, followed by the central, northeastern, and eastern regions; (2) there is an inverted u-shaped relationship between clean energy and energy security; (3) in the short term, clean energy will have a negative effect on industrial structure upgrading. But with the expansion of its scale, clean energy development will promote the industrial structure upgrading, and then improve energy security; and (4) the development of clean energy has a positive effect on the adjustment of energy structure.