Spatial Variability of Rainfall Trends in Sri Lanka from 1989 to 2019 as an Indication of Climate Change

Assessing the extent and impacts of linear infrastructure on Sri Lanka's natural and protected areas: Implications for future development planning

Linear infrastructure (LI) has varying effects on landscapes depending on different ecosystems' sensitivity and threat levels. Economically developing tropical countries are particularly at risk from LI. Therefore, understanding a country's current LI network and planning future developments to avoid further fragmentation and disturbance is crucial. This study aimed to assess the extent of Sri Lanka's LI network (i.e., roads, railroads, and powerlines), given that it is both a biodiversity hotspot and an economically developing country in the tropics. First, we calculated the average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) indices and examined their spatial autocorrelation per divisional secretariat division. Then a multivariate cluster analysis was used to determine clusters of natural and protected areas that may receive similar impacts from different LI and their combinations. Results indicated that roads are the most widespread LI type in Sri Lanka, followed by powerlines and railroads. Over 80% of Sri Lanka's total land area falls within 1 km of either a national or a provincial/local road. Areas with high NDVI were primarily manmade habitats, with less than 20% contribution from protected areas. Over 50% of the total protected area of Sri Lanka is being impacted by all three types of LI. Powerlines were the most common LI type in protected areas in proportion to their total network lengths. To minimize environmental impact while achieving development goals, future LI development activities should use a landscape approach to identify development needs and strategies informed by these findings.

Impact of climatic factors on temporal variability of sand fly abundance in Sri Lanka: Longitudinal study (2018 to 2020) with two-stage hierarchical analysis

Background

Phlebotomine sand flies serve as vectors for leishmaniasis, a major health concern, but a neglected tropical disease. The risk of vector activity is governed by climatic factors that vary in different geographic zones in the country. Thus, we aimed to quantify the effect of climatic variables on sand fly vector activity in ten sentinel sites across Sri Lanka.

Methods

Mean rainfall, ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, soil temperature, evaporation, sunshine hours, and vector densities were recorded at monthly intervals in each location from March 2018 to February 2020. The association between weather variables and sand fly densities was analysed using a two-staged hierarchical procedure; Distributed Lag Non-Linear (DLNM) modelling framework and the DLNM method implemented in the R package dlnm (version number 2.4.6).

Results

Moderate rainfall values up to 120 mm per month and increasing RH up to 82 at lag of 0 months along with increasing soil temperature and evaporation rate at lag of 2 months were associated with statistically significant increase in the sand fly activity. These associations were heterogeneous across study settings. Whereas increasing ambient and soil temperature, sunshine hours, evaporation rate appeared to reduce the sand fly activity homogeneously at lag of 0 month in all the study settings.

Conclusions

The abundance of sand fly vectors varied in relation to selected climatic variables, either in real-time or with a time lag. This information can be utilized for predicting sand fly densities and for the development of effective strategies to prevent leishmaniasis transmission in specific settings.

Analysis of potential nature-based solutions for the Mun River Basin, Thailand

Despite the growth in research and applications of nature-based solutions (NBS) within the literature, there are limited applications in South East Asia, moreover studies which quantitatively assess the impacts of NBS could have on hazard reduction are scarce. This paper addresses this gap by developing and validating MCDA-GIS analysis to map how potential nature strategies could mitigate flood hazard if applied within the Mun River Basin, Thailand. Through a literature review, the top three solutions for flood and drought hazards were found: wetlands, re/afforestation, and changing crop types. These strategies were reviewed and validated with a MCDA-GIS methodology, through land use change (LUC) maps to depict different future scenarios. The results found that flood hazard did decrease when NBS were implemented in the catchment, especially for A/Reforestation, and to a greater extent when a combination of NBS were applied. This article provides specific insights into the current gaps of NBS publications, specifically considering the case of the Mun River Basin, Thailand.

Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics

Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.

Statistical Evaluation and Trend Analysis of ANN Based Satellite Products (PERSIANN) for the Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka

Satellite-based precipitation products, (SbPPs) have piqued the interest of a number of researchers as a reliable replacement for observed rainfall data which often have limited time spans and missing days. The SbPPs possess certain uncertainties, thus, they cannot be directly used without comparing against observed rainfall data prior to use. The Kelani river basin is Sri Lanka’s fourth longest river and the main source of water for almost 5 million people. Therefore, this research study aims to identify the potential of using SbPPs as a different method to measure rain besides using a rain gauge. Furthermore, the aim of the work is to examine the trends in precipitation products in the Kelani river basin. Three SbPPs, precipitation estimation using remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks (PERSIANN), PERSIANN-cloud classification system (CCS), and PERSIANN-climate data record (CDR) and ground observed rain gauge daily rainfall data at nine locations were used for the analysis. Four continuous evaluation indices, namely, root mean square error (RMSE), (percent bias) PBias, correlation coefficient (CC), and Nash‒Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used to determine the accuracy by comparing against observed rainfall data. Four categorical indices including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), critical success index (CSI), and proportional constant (PC) were used to evaluate the rainfall detection capability of SbPPs. Mann‒Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to identifying whether a trend was present while the magnitudes of these were calculated by Sen’s slope. PERSIANN-CDR performed well by showing better performance in both POD and CSI. When compared to observed rainfall data, the PERSIANN product had the lowest RMSE value, while all products indicated underestimations. The CC and NSE of all three products with observed rainfall data were also low. Mixed results were obtained for the trend analysis as well. The overall results showed that all three products are not a better choice for the chosen study area.

Effects of Climate Change on Corn Yields: Spatiotemporal Evidence from Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model

Food security has been one of the greatest global concerns facing the current complicated situation. Among these, the impact of climate change on agricultural production is dynamic over time and space, making it a major challenge to food security. Taking the U.S. Corn Belt as an example, we introduce a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model that can handle both temporal and spatial non-stationarity in the relationship between corn yield and meteorological variables. With a high fitting performance (adjusted R2 at 0.79), the GTWR model generates spatiotemporally varying coefficients to effectively capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity without requiring completion of the unbalanced data. This model makes it possible to retain original data to the maximum possible extent and to estimate the results more reliably and realistically. Our regression results showed that climate change had a positive effect on corn yield over the past 40 years, from 1981 to 2020, with temperature having a stronger effect than precipitation. Furthermore, a fuzzy c-means algorithm was used to cluster regions based on spatiotemporally changing trends. We found that the production potential of regions at high latitudes was higher than that of regions at low latitudes, suggesting that the center of productive regions may migrate northward in the future.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall Trends in Response to Climate Change—A Case Study: Syria

Recent climate changes have prompted changes in the hydrological cycle at a global scale, creating instability when predicting future climate conditions and related changes. Perturbations in global climate models have created the need to concentrate consequent changes in hydro climatic factors to comprehend the regional and territorial impacts of climate and environmental changes. Syria, as a Middle East country, is exposed to extreme climate events such as drought and flood. The aim of this study is to analyze rainfall trends in Syria in response to the likely climate change. The analysis was conducted for rainfall data collected from 71 stations distributed all over the country for the period (1991–2009). The trend analysis was performed in monthly and seasonal scales using Mann–Kendall non-parametric statistical tests. The results attained from Mann–Kendall trend analysis revealed decreasing trends at most of the stations. Additionally, rainfall analysis was conducted for the stations with significant trends for wet and dry periods, which also revealed decreasing trends at almost all the stations. From the analysis of the results, it is obvious that slight increasing trends in rainfall in Syria occurred in the fall period. However, in the winter and spring periods, significant decreasing trends have been observed at almost all the stations. This reveals that the country will suffer from shortage of water, because most rainfall occurs in the winter and spring, infrequently in fall and rarely in summer. The results are consistent with the IPCC’s fifth report that predicted a decrease in rainfall in the Mediterranean and southern Asia. The results of this paper could help the management of water resources in Syria considering future climate changes.

Water quality characteristics of breeding habitats in relation to the density of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in domestic settings in Gampaha district of Sri Lanka

In spite of the unavailability of measures to target dengue control in human populations, the promising way of combating the disease is by controlling vector mosquito larvae and their breeding habitats. Water quality characteristics of the breeding habitats of dengue vectors are among the crucial parameters that determine the female mosquito's oviposition and breeding. Therefore, a cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate the habitat characteristics of dengue vector mosquitoes by assessing the water quality of positive breeding habitats using the weighted arithmetic water quality index (WQI). The present study was conducted in domestic areas of the selected medical officer of health areas of the Gampaha district, Sri Lanka, from 2017 to 2019. Water quality characteristics of breeding habituations were measured and analyzed. The relationship between water quality parameters in breeding habitats with the occurrence of mosquito species was assessed using Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance, followed by pairwise comparison using Dunn's test and Mann-Whitney U test at a 5% level of significance. This study revealed that the temperature of Aedes mosquito breeding water ranged between 25.3 and 39.8 °C, and bred at temperatures as high as 39.8 °C in discarded receptacles. The results indicated that Ae. aegypti was prominent in alkaline water ranging between 7.5 and 8.5 pH, whereas Ae. albopictus was abundant in water with a pH range of 6.5-7.5. Both species of Aedes inhabited waters of low turbidity and TDS level. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus immatures were prominent in water where TDS levels ranged between 250 and 350 ppm. The mean conductivity in the mosquito breeding water was recorded as 228.3 ± 63.9 µs/cm. The study revealed that Aedes mosquitoes could breed in water with a mean dissolved oxygen level of 6.9 ± 0.7 mg/L, ranging between 6.35 ± 1.09 mg/L and 7.28 ± 0.26 mg/L. The water quality indices were calculated for the eight previously identified breeding habitat categories of Aedes mosquitoes.

Bionomic aspects of dengue vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus at domestic settings in urban, suburban and rural areas in Gampaha District, Western Province of Sri Lanka

Background

The lack of information on behavioural patterns of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus has become a significant limitation in vector control and disease management programmes. Therefore, the current study was focused on determining some bionomics aspects: breeding, resting, host-seeking and feeding preferences of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Sri Lanka.

Methods

Larval and adult surveys were conducted from April 2017 to April 2019 monthly in six selected Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in Gampaha Distinct, Western province, Sri Lanka, representing urban, suburban and rural settings. Resting preferences of adult mosquitoes were observed from indoor and outdoor places using a Prockopack aspirator. The information on resting height, surface, material and locality was recorded. Human-baited double-net traps were used to determine the host-seeking time of Aedes mosquitoes. Statistical differences in the spatial distribution of mosquitoes in selected MOH areas and prevalence of vectors were analysed using general linear model (GLM). A chi-square test was used to analyse the resting behaviour.

Results

Total of 19,835 potential breeding sites were examined at 13,563 premises, and 18.5% (n = 1856) were positive for Aedes larvae. Distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was statistically significant at species level (df = 1; F = 137.134; P < 0.05 GLM) and study setting (df = 2; F = 8.125; P < 0.05). Aedes aegypti breeding was found mainly in temporary removals (18.8%; n = 34), discarded non-degradables (12.15%; n = 22) and tyres (9.95%; n = 18). Natural (14.7%; n = 246) and temporary removals (13.6%; n = 227) and discarded non-reusable items were the key ovipositing sites for Ae. albopictus. In the adult mosquito survey, the majority was comprised of Ae. albopictus (54.5%; n = 999), which denoted exophilic nature (90.8%; n = 758), and 45.5% (n = 835) represented by Ae. aegypti mosquitoes who were mainly endophilic (84.3%; n = 842). Aedes aegypti rested on cloth hangings and curtains, followed by the furniture, while Aedes albopictus was predominant in outdoor vegetation. In both vectors, biting patterns denoted a typical diurnal pattern with two peaks of host-seeking and biting activity in the morning and afternoon.

Conclusions

The majority (80%) of the larval habitats were artificial containers. The use of larvicides for vector control as the prominent measure is questionable since applying these chemicals may target only 20% of the total breeding grounds, which are permanent. The resting places of adult mosquitoes are mainly indoors. Therefore, using thermal space spraying of insecticide may not be appropriate, and indoor residual spraying is recommended as a suitable intervention to target adult mosquitoes. This study warrants a holistic vector control approach for all medically important mosquitoes and insects, ensuring the rational use of finance and resources.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05261-3.

Characterization of Physicochemical and Mechanical Properties of Dumped Municipal Solid Waste in Sri Lanka as Affected by the Climate Zone and Dumping Age

Due to the rapid increase in population and urbanization, municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is increasing. Sri Lanka, in particular, faces serious difficulties in finding new sites for MSW disposal, due to the lack of available space; therefore, the rehabilitation of existing MSW dumping sites and the extension of their services are required to achieve sustainable urban development. To examine suitable rehabilitation techniques, it is essential to identify the physicochemical and mechanical properties of dumped MSW, fully considering climatic conditions, waste composition, and the time since the waste was dumped. In this study, therefore, the physicochemical and mechanical properties of dumped MSW were investigated; the dumped MSW was taken from existing MSW dumping sites in three climate zones in Sri Lanka, namely the Karadiyana site in the wet zone, Udapalatha in the intermediate zone, and Hambantota in the dry zone, and it was taken at different times after being dumped. The results showed that the waste composition and biodegradation of organic materials affected the physicochemical and mechanical properties of the dumped waste. The measured compaction parameters of the “old” sites at Udapalatha and Hambantota were higher compared to the “new” sites. Compaction parameters at the Karadiyana site, on the other hand, were low, at even >20 years since being dumped, probably due to the high amount of scarcely compacted materials. In direct shear tests, both strain hardening and softening of the waste samples were observed, depending on the difference in vertical stress. Based on the Pearson correlations among measured physicochemical and mechanical parameters, it was found that the loss on ignition (LOI) would be a good indicator to quickly assess the mechanical parameters of “new” and “old” waste materials, due to the small sensitivities to waste age and climate conditions in Sri Lanka. In particular, LOI correlated well to measured specific gravity and compaction properties, and the r2 values of correlations exceeded |0.80|.

Evaluation of Future Streamflow in the Upper Part of the Nilwala River Basin (Sri Lanka) under Climate Change

Climate change is a serious and complex crisis that impacts humankind in different ways. It affects the availability of water resources, especially in the tropical regions of South Asia to a greater extent. However, the impact of climate change on water resources in Sri Lanka has been the least explored. Noteworthy, this is the first study in Sri Lanka that attempts to evaluate the impact of climate change in streamflow in a watershed located in the southern coastal belt of the island. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the climate change impact on streamflow of the Upper Nilwala River Basin (UNRB), Sri Lanka. In this study, the bias-corrected rainfall data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were fed into the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to obtain future streamflow. Bias correction of future rainfall data in the Nilwala River Basin (NRB) was conducted using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM). Future precipitation was projected under three timelines: 2020s (2021–2047), 2050s (2048–2073), and 2080s (2074–2099) and was compared against the baseline period from 1980 to 2020. The ensemble mean annual precipitation in the NRB is expected to rise by 3.63%, 16.49%, and 12.82% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, and 4.26%, 8.94%, and 18.04% under RCP 8.5 emission scenario during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The future annual streamflow of the UNRB is projected to increase by 59.30% and 65.79% under the ensemble RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, when compared to the baseline scenario. In addition, the seasonal flows are also expected to increase for both RCPs for all seasons with an exception during the southwest monsoon season in the 2015–2042 period under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In general, the results of the present study demonstrate that climate and streamflow of the NRB are expected to experience changes when compared to current climatic conditions. The results of the present study will be of major importance for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of future changes in climate.

Barriers in Participative Water Governance: A Critical Analysis of Community Development Approaches

Participatory approaches within development programs involving common-pool resources are intended to revive a community’s role in managing these resources. Certainly, to ensure the successful and equitable use of such resources, community participation is essential. However, in many cases, attempts at applying a participatory approach often fail to genuinely engage all subgroups within a community due to assumptions of homogeneity and a lack of understanding of the deep socio-political divisions between people. As a result, development programs can be plagued by these pre-existing power relations, potentially resulting in tokenistic community participation and the continuation of elite capture of natural resources to the same extent or worse than before a development program has begun. This in turn can negatively impact good governance and the fair distribution of a common pool resource. This paper explores the use of participatory approaches in water projects, assessing to what degree power relationships impact water management programs. Using a qualitative approach, the paper identifies key challenges of participatory water governance through case studies from Turkey, India, and Sri Lanka, exploring: lack of social trust, elite capture of participatory processes, power heterogeneity and imbalances at the micro-level, and a lack of inclusive participation in decision-making. Based on the analysis of these case studies, this paper argues that it is essential for participatory development interventions to understand socio-political power relations within a community—an inherently complex and contested space. The so-called “exist-strategies” of a community project play a key role to decide the project sustainability that grants the “community ownership” of the project. Such an understanding can bring about greater success in development interventions attempting to address water-related issues.

Rainfall Variability and Trends over the African Continent Using TAMSAT Data (1983–2020): Towards Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation

This study reveals rainfall variability and trends in the African continent using TAMSAT data from 1983 to 2020. In the study, a Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to analyze rainfall trends and their magnitude, respectively, under monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes as an indication of climate change using different natural and geographical contexts (i.e., sub-regions, climate zones, major river basins, and countries). The study finds that the highest annual rainfall trends were recorded in Rwanda (11.97 mm/year), the Gulf of Guinea (river basin 8.71 mm/year), the tropical rainforest climate zone (8.21 mm/year), and the Central African region (6.84 mm/year), while Mozambique (−0.437 mm/year), the subtropical northern desert (0.80 mm/year), the west coast river basin of South Africa (−0.360 mm/year), and the Northern Africa region (1.07 mm/year) show the lowest annual rainfall trends. There is a statistically significant increase in the rainfall in the countries of Africa’s northern and central regions, while there is no statistically significant change in the countries of the southern and eastern regions. In terms of climate zones, in the tropical northern desert climates, tropical northern peninsulas, and tropical grasslands, there is a significant increase in rainfall over the entire timeframe of the month, season, and year. This implies that increased rainfall will have a positive effect on the food security of the countries in those climatic zones. Since a large percentage of Africa’s agriculture is based only on rainfall (i.e., rain-fed agriculture), increasing trends in rainfall can assist climate resilience and adaptation, while declining rainfall trends can badly affect it. This information can be crucial for decision-makers concerned with effective crop planning and water resource management. The rainfall variability and trend analysis of this study provide important information to decision-makers that need to effectively mitigate drought and flood risk.

Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Extreme Events over Kosi River Basin in India

Analysis of spatial and temporal changes of long-term precipitation and extreme precipitation distribution at a local scale is very important for the prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters. In the present study, we have analyzed the long-term trend of 116 years (1901–2016) of precipitation and distribution of extreme precipitation index over the Kosi River Basin (KRB), which is one of the frequent flooding rivers of India, using the 0.25° × 0.25° resolution gridded precipitation datasets obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test together with Sen’s slope estimator was employed to determine the trend and the magnitude of the trend of the precipitation time series. The annual and monsoon seasons revealed decreasing trends with Sen’s slope values of −1.88 and −0.408, respectively. For the extreme indices viz. R10 and R20 days, a decreasing trend from the northeastern to the southwest part of the basin can be observed, whereas, in the case of highest one-day precipitation (RX1 day), no clear trend was found. The information provided through this study can be useful for policymakers and may play an important role in flood management, runoff, and understanding related to the hydrological process of the basin. This will contribute to a better understanding of the potential risk of changing rainfall patterns, especially the extreme rainfall events due to climatic variations.

Satellite-Based Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Monitoring for Agricultural Sustainability in Sri Lanka

For Sri Lanka, as an agricultural country, a methodical drought monitoring mechanism, including spatial and temporal variations, may significantly contribute to its agricultural sustainability. Investigating long-term meteorological and agricultural drought occurrences in Sri Lanka and assessing drought hazard at the district level are the main objectives of the study. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were used as drought indicators to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of agriculture and meteorological droughts. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data from 1989 to 2019 was used to calculate SPI and RAI. MOD13A1 and MOD11A2 data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2001 to 2019, were used to generate the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI). Agricultural drought monitoring was done using VHI and generated using the spatial integration of VCI and TCI. Thus, various spatial data analysis techniques were extensively employed for vector and raster data integration and analysis. A methodology has been developed for the drought declaration of the country using the VHI-derived drought area percentage. Accordingly, for a particular year, if the country-wide annual extreme and severe drought area percentage based on VHI drought classes is ≥30%, it can be declared as a drought year. Moreover, administrative districts of Sri Lanka were classified into four hazard classes, No drought, Low drought, Moderate drought, and High drought, using the natural-beak classification scheme for both agricultural and meteorological droughts. The findings of this study can be used effectively by the relevant decision-makers for drought risk management (DRM), resilience, sustainable agriculture, and policymaking.