Long-Term Changes of the Wildland–Urban Interface in the Polish Carpathians

The global wildland-urban interface

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle1,2. It is where human-environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases3. However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area4 and wildland vegetation5. We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003-2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions6, there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Geospatial Modeling Approaches to Historical Settlement and Landscape Analysis

Landscapes and human settlements evolve over long periods of time. Land change, as one of the drivers of the ecological crisis in the Anthropocene, therefore, needs to be studied with a long-term perspective. Over the past decades, a substantial body of research has accumulated in the field of land change science. The quantitative geospatial analysis of land change, however, still faces many challenges; be that methodological or data accessibility related. This editorial introduces several scientific contributions to an open-access Special Issue on historical settlement and landscape analysis. The featured articles cover all phases of the analysis process in this field: from the exploration and geocoding of data sources and the acquisition and processing of data to the adequate visualization and application of the retrieved historical geoinformation for knowledge generation. The data used in this research include archival maps, cadastral and master plans, crowdsourced data, airborne LiDAR and satellite-based data products. From a geographical perspective, the issue covers urban and rural regions in Central Europe and North America as well as regions subject to highly dynamic urbanization in East Asia. In the view of global environmental challenges, both the need for long-term studies on land change within Earth system research and the current advancement in AI methods for the retrieval, processing and integration of historical geoinformation will further fuel this field of research.

Impact of the Cartographer’s Position and Topographic Accessibility on the Accuracy of Historical Land Use Information: Case of the Second Military Survey Maps of the Habsburg Empire

Historical maps are critical for long-term land use reconstructions; however, quantifying the uncertainty involved in comparing historical maps with recent data remains a considerable challenge. To date, many works have focused on the technical aspects of comparing historical and contemporary materials, but the potential sources of uncertainty inherent in historical data remain poorly understood. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of the topographic accessibility and cartographer’s field position on the content quality of historical Austrian second military survey maps by referring to independent census data. Our results show that the topographic accessibility and visibility from the cartographer’s surveying table points had very little impact on the map content quality and that the surveying table point locations were uniformly distributed throughout the area, regardless of the landscape conditions. These findings demonstrate that the second military survey maps can be seen as valuable and consistent historical data sources, making them especially useful for long-term land use research in Central Europe.

Impact of Future Land Use Change on Large Carnivores Connectivity in the Polish Carpathians

The Polish Carpathians, like many mountain areas in Europe, are currently facing dynamic land use changes that will shape their future landscapes. As there are many different possible scenarios of potential change, we compared three different land use scenarios up until the year 2060 and assessed their impact on the potential habitat connectivity of two large carnivores—wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx). We first analysed the main directions of change within and outside the pan-European wildlife corridor located in the western part of the Polish Carpathians. Then we calculated and compared least-cost paths among randomly selected points for each land use scenario separately. Our results showed that the main direction of change—forest cover increase—may positively influence habitat connectivity for both wolf and lynx. However, due to the future spread of settlements, this positive impact might be locally limited. Therefore, to realise the potential conservation opportunities resulting from on-going land use changes, adequate orientation of spatial planning towards habitat connectivity is crucial.