Multiple Global Population Datasets: Differences and Spatial Distribution Characteristics

Analysis of spatial characteristics and influencing factors of the flow network of highly educated talents from national and local perspective

Based on dynamic monitoring data on China's population, by using complex networks, spatial analysis and mathematical measurement, this study reveals the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of the network of flows of highly educated talents in the Yangtze River Delta region from the national and local perspectives. In the two perspectives, the network has strong isomorphism and certain differences. The in-flow of highly educated talents from cities with high administrative levels and more developed economies to Shanghai constitutes the core of the entire network. From a national perspective, highly educated talents tend to converge to the Yangtze River Delta region. From a local perspective, it was found that these talents cluster towards a limited number of cities in the region. From both perspectives, the flow network has developed into a "core-periphery" progressive hierarchical structure, with Shanghai becoming the sole core city. There is little difference in the influencing factors of talent mobility from both macro and meso perspectives. Highly educated talents would frequently flow between cities with strong economic development levels, and cities with high education level, scientific and technological level, complete infrastructure, and good aesthetics. However, geographical distance still plays a hindering role in the flow of highly educated talents, and factors such as cultural identity, institutional, and social modality differences among regions also have a certain effect on the flow of these talents.

A 31-year (1990-2020) global gridded population dataset generated by cluster analysis and statistical learning

Continuously monitoring global population spatial dynamics is crucial for implementing effective policies related to sustainable development, including epidemiology, urban planning, and global inequality. However, existing global gridded population data products lack consistent population estimates, making them unsuitable for time-series analysis. To address this issue, this study designed a data fusion framework based on cluster analysis and statistical learning approaches, which led to the generation of a continuous global gridded population dataset (GlobPOP). The GlobPOP dataset was evaluated through two-tier spatial and temporal validation to demonstrate its accuracy and applicability. The spatial validation results show that the GlobPOP dataset is highly accurate. The temporal validation results also reveal that the GlobPOP dataset performs consistently well across eight representative countries and cities despite their unique population dynamics. With the availability of GlobPOP datasets in both population count and population density formats, researchers and policymakers can leverage the new dataset to conduct time-series analysis of the population and explore the spatial patterns of population development at global, national, and city levels.

Accurate classification of land use and land cover using a boundary-specific two-level learning approach augmented with auxiliary features in Google Earth Engine

Land use land cover (LULC) classification using remote sensing images is a valuable resource in various fields such as climate change, urban development, and land degradation monitoring. The city of Madurai in India is known for its diverse geographical elements and rich heritage, which includes the cultural sport of "Jallikattu": whose main competitor, the zebusare deeply affected by the conversion of their waterbodies and pastures into concrete jungles. Hence, monitoring land degradation is vital in preserving the geography and cultural heritage of the study area, Madurai. The "Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager tier_2 collection_2 Level_2 Surface Reflectance" image was taken for this study. The LULC classification is performed based on the following classes: forest, agriculture, urban, water bodies, uncultivated land, and bare land. The objective of the study is to incorporate auxiliary features to spectral and textural features along with a simple non-iterative clustering (SNIC) segmentation algorithm and implement a boundary-specific two-level learning approach based on support vector machines (SVM) and k nearest neighbors (kNN) classification algorithms. The overall accuracy (OA) of 95.78% and 0 .94 Kappa score (K) were obtained using a boundary-specific two-level model augmented with auxiliary feature and SNIC algorithm in comparison to PB, OB, and OBS, which achieve OA (K) of 81% (0.76), 91% (0.89), and 94.42% (0.92), respectively. The results demonstrate a notable enhancement in overall classification accuracy when augmenting the features and refining classification decisions using a boundary-specific two-level learning approach.

Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.

So2Sat POP - A Curated Benchmark Data Set for Population Estimation from Space on a Continental Scale

Obtaining a dynamic population distribution is key to many decision-making processes such as urban planning, disaster management and most importantly helping the government to better allocate socio-technical supply. For the aspiration of these objectives, good population data is essential. The traditional method of collecting population data through the census is expensive and tedious. In recent years, statistical and machine learning methods have been developed to estimate population distribution. Most of the methods use data sets that are either developed on a small scale or not publicly available yet. Thus, the development and evaluation of new methods become challenging. We fill this gap by providing a comprehensive data set for population estimation in 98 European cities. The data set comprises a digital elevation model, local climate zone, land use proportions, nighttime lights in combination with multi-spectral Sentinel-2 imagery, and data from the Open Street Map initiative. We anticipate that it would be a valuable addition to the research community for the development of sophisticated approaches in the field of population estimation.

The Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Cultivated Land Multifunction and Its Trade-Off/Synergy Relationship in the Two Lake Plains

The material foundation of sustainable agricultural development is cultivated land resources, and their sustainable use is critical to fostering agricultural sustainability and guaranteeing national food security. In this paper, the multifunctional evaluation framework of the cultivated land system based on the "GESEL" model at the grid scale (5 km × 5 km) is constructed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of a multifunctional cultivated land system in two lake plains and the trade-off and synergy between the functions. The five functions are all unstable in time scales, and their spatial distribution characteristics are also different. The trade-off and synergy between the multiple functions of the cultivated land system in the two lake plains from 2000 to 2019 showed significant spatial heterogeneity. Most of the functions were mainly collaborative, and a few were trade-offs. The two lake plains can be divided into four multi-functional cultivated land zones: a grain production leading zone, a distinctive agricultural planting zone, a high-efficiency agricultural development zone, and an ecological agricultural construction zone. This research puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources.

Empiric recommendations for population disaggregation under different data scenarios

High-resolution population mapping is of high relevance for developing and implementing tailored actions in several fields: From decision making in crisis management to urban planning. Earth Observation has considerably contributed to the development of methods for disaggregating population figures with higher resolution data into fine-grained population maps. However, which method is most suitable on the basis of the available data, and how the spatial units and accuracy metrics affect the validation process is not fully known. We aim to provide recommendations to researches that attempt to produce high-resolution population maps using remote sensing and geospatial information in heterogeneous urban landscapes. For this purpose, we performed a comprehensive experimental research on population disaggregation methods with thirty-six different scenarios. We combined five different top-down methods (from basic to complex, i.e., binary and categorical dasymetric, statistical, and binary and categorical hybrid approaches) on different subsets of data with diverse resolutions and degrees of availability (poor, average and rich). Then, the resulting population maps were systematically validated with a two-fold approach using six accuracy metrics. We found that when only using remotely sensed data the combination of statistical and dasymetric methods provide better results, while highly-resolved data require simpler methods. Besides, the use of at least three relative accuracy metrics is highly encouraged since the validation depends on level and method. We also analysed the behaviour of relative errors and how they are affected by the heterogeneity of the urban landscape. We hope that our recommendations save additional efforts and time in future population mapping.

High-Precision Population Spatialization in Metropolises Based on Ensemble Learning: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Accurate spatial population distribution information, especially for metropolises, is of significant value and is fundamental to many application areas such as public health, urban development planning and disaster assessment management. Random forest is the most widely used model in population spatialization studies. However, a reliable model for accurately mapping the spatial distribution of metropolitan populations is still lacking due to the inherent limitations of the random forest model and the complexity of the population spatialization problem. In this study, we integrate gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) and support vector regression (SVR) through ensemble-learning algorithm-stacking to construct a novel population-spatialization model we name GXLS-Stacking. We integrate socioeconomic data that enhance the characterization of the population’s spatial distribution (e.g., point-of-interest data, building outline data with height, artificial impervious surface data, etc.) and natural environmental data with a combination of census data to train the model to generate a high-precision gridded population density map with a 100 m spatial resolution for Beijing in 2020. Finally, the generated gridded population density map is validated at the pixel level using the highest resolution validation data (i.e., community household registration data) in the current study. The results show that the GXLS-Stacking model can predict the population’s spatial distribution with high precision (R2 = 0.8004, MAE = 34.67 persons/hectare, RMSE = 54.92 persons/hectare), and its overall performance is not only better than the four individual models but also better than the random forest model. Compared to the natural environmental features, a city’s socioeconomic features are more capable in characterizing the spatial distribution of the population and the intensity of human activities. In addition, the gridded population density map obtained by the GXLS-Stacking model can provide highly accurate information on the population’s spatial distribution and can be used to analyze the spatial patterns of metropolitan population density. Moreover, the GXLS-Stacking model has the ability to be generalized to metropolises with comprehensive and high-quality data, whether in China or in other countries. Furthermore, for small and medium-sized cities, our modeling process can still provide an effective reference for their population spatialization methods.

The Missing Millions in Maps: Exploring Causes of Uncertainties in Global Gridded Population Datasets

Gridded population datasets model the population at a relatively high spatial and temporal granularity by reallocating official population data from irregular administrative units to regular grids (e.g., 1 km grid cells). Such population data are vital for understanding human–environmental relationships and responding to many socioeconomic and environmental problems. We analyzed one very broadly used gridded population layer (GHS-POP) to assess its capacity to capture the distribution of population counts in several urban areas, spread across the major world regions. This analysis was performed to assess its suitability for global population modelling. We acquired the most detailed local population data available for several cities and compared this with the GHS-POP layer. Results showed diverse error rates and degrees depending on the geographic context. In general, cities in High-Income (HIC) and Upper-Middle-Income Countries (UMIC) had fewer model errors as compared to cities in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). On a global average, 75% of all urban spaces were wrongly estimated. Generally, in central mixed or non-residential areas, the population was overestimated, while in high-density residential areas (e.g., informal areas and high-rise areas), the population was underestimated. Moreover, high model uncertainties were found in low-density or sparsely populated outskirts of cities. These geographic patterns of errors should be well understood when using population models as an input for urban growth models, as they introduce geographic biases.

Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.

Which Gridded Population Data Product Is Better? Evidences from Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA)

The release of global gridded population datasets, including the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Global Human Settlement Population Grid (GHS-POP), WorldPop, and LandScan, have greatly facilitated cross-comparison for ongoing research related to anthropogenic impacts. However, little attention is paid to the consistency and discrepancy of these gridded products in the regions with rapid changes in local population, e.g., Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), where the countries have experienced fast population growth since the 1950s. This awkward situation is unsurprisingly aggravated because of national scarce demographics and incomplete census counts, which further limits their appropriate usage. Thus, comparative analyses of them become the priority of their better application. Here, the consistency and discrepancy of the four common global gridded population datasets were cross-compared by combing the 2015 provincial population statistics (census and yearbooks) via error-comparison based statistical methods. The results showed that: (1) the LandScan performs the best both in spatial accuracy and estimated errors, then followed by the WorldPop, GHS-POP, and GPW in MSEA. (2) Provincial differences in estimated errors indicated that the LandScan better reveals the spatial pattern of population density in Thailand and Vietnam, while the WorldPop performs slightly better in Myanmar and Laos, and both fit well in Cambodia. (3) Substantial errors among the four gridded datasets normally occur in the provincial units with larger population density (over 610 persons/km2) and a rapid population growth rate (greater than 1.54%), respectively. The new findings in MSEA indicated that future usage of these datasets should pay attention to the estimated population in the areas characterized by high population density and rapid population growth.

Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development^1,2. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods³. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization⁴, flood mitigation infrastructure⁵ and increasing settlements in floodplains⁶. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty^3,7-11. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255-290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58-86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates⁷. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.

Implications for Tracking SDG Indicator Metrics with Gridded Population Data

Achieving the seventeen United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires accurate, consistent, and accessible population data. Yet many low- and middle-income countries lack reliable or recent census data at the sufficiently fine spatial scales needed to monitor SDG progress. While the increasing abundance of Earth observation-derived gridded population products provides analysis-ready population estimates, end users lack clear use criteria to track SDGs indicators. In fact, recent comparisons of gridded population products identify wide variation across gridded population products. Here we present three case studies to illuminate how gridded population datasets compare in measuring and monitoring SDGs to advance the “fitness for use” guidance. Our focus is on SDG 11.5, which aims to reduce the number of people impacted by disasters. We use five gridded population datasets to measure and map hazard exposure for three case studies: the 2015 earthquake in Nepal; Cyclone Idai in Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe (MMZ) in 2019; and flash flood susceptibility in Ecuador. First, we map and quantify geographic patterns of agreement/disagreement across gridded population products for Nepal, MMZ, and Ecuador, including delineating urban and rural populations estimates. Second, we quantify the populations exposed to each hazard. Across hazards and geographic contexts, there were marked differences in population estimates across the gridded population datasets. As such, it is key that researchers, practitioners, and end users utilize multiple gridded population datasets—an ensemble approach—to capture uncertainty and/or provide range estimates when using gridded population products to track SDG indicators. To this end, we made available code and globally comprehensive datasets that allows for the intercomparison of gridded population products.