The Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in China

Which SDM Model, CLIMEX vs. MaxEnt, Best Forecasts Aeolesthes sarta Distribution at a Global Scale under Climate Change Scenarios?

A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species' distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.

Ecological forecasts of insect range dynamics: a broad range of taxa includes winners and losers under future climate

Species distribution models are the primary tools to project future species' distributions, but this complex task is influenced by data limitations and evolving best practices. The majority of the 53 studies we examined utilized correlative models and did not follow current best practices for validating retrospective or future environmental data layers. Despite this, a summary of results is largely unsurprising: shifts toward cooler regions, but otherwise mixed dynamics emphasizing winners and losers. Harmful insects were more likely to show positive outcomes compared with beneficial species. Our restricted ability to consider mechanisms complicates interpretation of any single study. To improve this area of modeling, more classic field and lab studies to uncover basic ecology and physiology are crucial.

Electrophysiological and Behavioral Responses of Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) Females to Aldehyde Volatiles from Dried Fruits

Plodia interpunctella (Lepidoptera: Pyraloidea) is a notorious pest of stored grain globally. The dried fruits (Ziziphus jujuba, Malus pumila, and Fragaria ananassa) can strongly attract P. interpunctella. However, specific volatile compounds responsible for such effects have not been identified. Volatiles were analyzed by using headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) and chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCMS) techniques. Five aldehyde compounds were selected for electroantennogram (EAG), single sensillum recording (SSR), and behavioral response assays. The three chemicals that elicited the strongest EAG responses to mated females at 100 μg/μL include hexanal (1.13 mV), heptanal (0.92 mV), and octanal (0.73 mV). In SSR experiments, the basiconic sensilla of the antennae responded to these aldehyde compounds. The results of behavioral responses showed that all aldehydes exhibited dose-dependent responses, with hexanal having the highest attractant rate of 74.56%. These compounds have the potential to be used for monitoring P. interpunctella and its integrated management program.

Comprehensive metabolomic variations of hawthorn before and after insect infestation based on the combination analysis of 1H NMR and UPLC-MS

Hawthorn, the sliced and dried ripe fruits of Crataegus pinnatifida Bge. Var. Major N. E. Br. (Rosaceae), is an edible and medicinal substance with a variety of health-promoting benefits. Hawthorn needs to be stored in warehouses after harvesting to meet people's perennial demand. However, it is easily infested by insects of Plodia interpunctella and Tribolium castaneum during storage, which inevitably leads to poor quality and causes adverse effects on people's health. So far, there has been no report on insect-infested hawthorn. In this study, we analyzed the changes of metabolites in hawthorn before and after insect infestation and screened out potential biomarkers to effectively and quickly detect the occurrence of insect infestation. A combination analysis of 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS) was used to identify the primary and secondary metabolites. By the comparison of hawthorn and insect-infested hawthorn samples, it was found that the differences were mainly manifested in the content of metabolites. The metabolites of 32 and 1463 were identified by 1H NMR and UPLC-MS analysis, respectively. According to the parameters of VIP >1 and P < 0.05, 10 differential metabolites were screened from 1H NMR analysis. Based on the parameters of VIP >1.0, P < 0.05, and (FC) > 1 or < 1, 47 differential metabolites were screened from UPLC-MS analysis. Therefore, a total of 57 differential metabolites were considered as differential biomarkers. The heat map analysis showed that the content of some differential biomarkers with significant pharmacological activities decreased after insect infestation. Through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessment, 52 differential biomarkers (6 of 1H NMR analysis and 46 of UPLC-MS analysis) were screened to distinguish whether insect infestation occurred in hawthorn. This is the first report on the changes of metabolites between hawthorn and insect-infested hawthorn and on the screening of differential biomarkers for monitoring insects. These results contributed to evaluate quality of hawthorn and ensure food safety for consumers. It also laid a foundation for further research on the infestation mechanism and safe storage monitoring in hawthorn.