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Xu L, Zhang N, Zhang Y, Luo D, Lu H, Wang Y, Zheng Y, Li Q. A dynamic online nomogram for predicts delayed postoperative bleeding after colorectal polyp surgery. Sci Rep 2024; 14:19728. [PMID: 39183349 PMCID: PMC11345411 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-70635-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2024] [Accepted: 08/20/2024] [Indexed: 08/27/2024] Open
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the risk factors associated with delayed postoperative bleeding (DPPB) following colorectal polyp surgery, develop a dynamic nomogram and evaluate the model efficacy, provide a reference for clinicians to identify the patients at high risk of DPPB. Retrospective study was done on patients who underwent endoscopic colorectal polypectomy at the First Hospital of Lanzhou University from January 2020 to March 2023. Differences between the group with and without DPPB were compared, and independent risk factors for DPPB occurrence were identified through univariate analysis and combination LASSO and logistic regression. A dynamic nomogram was constructed based on multiple logistic regression to predict DPPB following colorectal polyp surgery. Model evaluation included receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Calibration curve, Decision curve analysis (DCA). DPPB occurred in 38 of the 1544 patients included. multivariate analysis showed that direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), polyp location in the right hemi colon, polyp diameter, drink, and prophylactic hemoclips were the independent risk factors for DPPB and dynamic nomogram were established. Model validation indicated area under the ROC curve values of 0.936, 0.796, and 0.865 for the training set, validation set, and full set, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated a strong alignment between the predictions of the column-line diagram model and actual observations. The decision curve analysis (DCA) displayed a significant net clinical benefit across the threshold probability range of 0-100%. The dynamic nomogram aids clinicians in identifying high-risk patients, enabling personalized diagnosis and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liting Xu
- The First Clinical Medicine, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Gansu Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Na Zhang
- The First Clinical Medicine, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Gansu Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Yongxia Zhang
- The First Clinical Medicine, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Gansu Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Di Luo
- Department of Urology, Tianjin Institute of Urology, The Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, 300000, China
| | - Hong Lu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Gansu Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Yimin Wang
- Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Ya Zheng
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
- Gansu Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Qiang Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China.
- Gansu Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China.
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Xiao Q, Eckardt M, Mohamed A, Ernst H, Behrens A, Homann N, Hielscher T, Kähler G, Ebert M, Belle S, Zhan T. Onset Time and Characteristics of Postprocedural Bleeding after Endoscopic Resection of Colorectal Lesions: A Multicenter Retrospective Study. Dig Dis 2023; 42:78-86. [PMID: 37812925 DOI: 10.1159/000534109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Postprocedural bleeding is a major adverse event after endoscopic resection of colorectal lesions, but the optimal surveillance time after endoscopy is unclear. In this study, we determined onset time and characteristics of postprocedural bleeding events. METHODS We retrospectively screened patients who underwent endoscopic resection of colorectal lesions at three German hospitals between 2010 and 2019 for postprocedural bleeding events using billing codes. Only patients who required re-endoscopy were included for analysis. For identified patients, we collected demographic data, clinical courses, characteristics of colorectal lesions, and procedure-related variables. Factors associated with late-onset bleeding were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS From a total of 6,820 patients with eligible billing codes, we identified 113 cases with postprocedural bleeding after endoscopic mucosal (61.9%) or snare resection (38.1%) that required re-endoscopy. The median size of the culprit lesion was 20 mm (interquartile range 14-30 mm). The median onset time of postprocedural bleeding was day 3 (interquartile range: 1-6.5 days), with 48.7% of events occurring within 48 h. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrates that a continued intake of antiplatelet drugs (OR: 3.98, 95% CI: 0.89-10.12, p = 0.025) and a flat morphology of the colorectal lesion (OR: 2.98, 95% CI: 1.08-8.01, p = 0.031) were associated with an increased risk for late postprocedural bleeding (>48 h), whereas intraprocedural bleeding was associated with a decreased risk (OR: 0.12, 95% CI: 0.04-0.50, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION Significant postprocedural bleeding can occur up to 18 days after endoscopic resection of colorectal lesions, but was predominantly observed within 48 h. Continued intake of antiplatelet drugs and a flat polyp morphology are associated with risk for late postprocedural bleeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiyun Xiao
- Department of Medicine II, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Maximilian Eckardt
- Department of Medicine II, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Awsan Mohamed
- Department of Medicine IV, Carl-Thiem-Hospital Cottbus, Cottbus, Germany
| | - Helmut Ernst
- Department of Medicine IV, Carl-Thiem-Hospital Cottbus, Cottbus, Germany
| | - Alexander Behrens
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Academic Teaching Hospital Wolfsburg, Wolfsburg, Germany
| | - Nils Homann
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Academic Teaching Hospital Wolfsburg, Wolfsburg, Germany
| | - Thomas Hielscher
- Department of Biostatistics, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Georg Kähler
- Central Interdisciplinary Endoscopy, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Matthias Ebert
- Department of Medicine II, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- Mannheim Cancer Center, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Sebastian Belle
- Department of Medicine II, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- Central Interdisciplinary Endoscopy, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Tianzuo Zhan
- Department of Medicine II, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- Mannheim Cancer Center, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
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Bendall O, James J, Pawlak KM, Ishaq S, Tau JA, Suzuki N, Bollipo S, Siau K. Delayed Bleeding After Endoscopic Resection of Colorectal Polyps: Identifying High-Risk Patients. Clin Exp Gastroenterol 2022; 14:477-492. [PMID: 34992406 PMCID: PMC8714413 DOI: 10.2147/ceg.s282699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2021] [Accepted: 12/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Delayed post-polypectomy bleeding (DPPB) is a potentially severe complication of therapeutic colonoscopy which can result in hospital readmission and re-intervention. Over the last decade, rates of DPPB reported in the literature have fallen from over 2% to 0.3–1.2%, largely due to improvements in resection technique, a shift towards cold snare polypectomy, better training, adherence to guidelines on periprocedural antithrombotic management, and the use of antithrombotics with more favourable bleeding profiles. However, as the complexity of polypectomy undertaken worldwide increases, so does the importance of identifying patients at increased risk of DPPB. Risk factors can be categorised according to patient, polyp and personnel related factors, and their integration together to provide an individualised risk score is an evolving field. Strategies to reduce DPPB include safe practices relevant to all patients undergoing colonoscopy, as well as specific considerations for patients identified to be high risk. This narrative review sets out an evidence-based summary of factors that contribute to the risk of DPPB before discussing pragmatic interventions to mitigate their risk and improve patient safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Bendall
- Department of Gastroenterology, Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust, Truro, UK
| | - Joel James
- Department of Gastroenterology, Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust, Truro, UK
| | - Katarzyna M Pawlak
- Endoscopy Unit, Department of Gastroenterology, Ministry of Interior and Administration, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Sauid Ishaq
- Department of Gastroenterology, Dudley Group Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Dudley, UK.,Medicine, Birmingham City Hospital, Birmingham, UK
| | - J Andy Tau
- Austin Gastroenterology, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Noriko Suzuki
- Wolfson Unit for Endoscopy, St. Mark's Hospital, London, UK
| | - Steven Bollipo
- School of Medicine & Public Health, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia.,Department of Gastroenterology, John Hunter Hospital, New Lambton Heights, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Keith Siau
- Department of Gastroenterology, Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust, Truro, UK
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