The Ratio of C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Is an Independent Predictor of Malignant Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas

Prediction of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: A nomogram based on clinical information and radiological outcomes

OBJECTIVE

Clinical practitioners face a significant challenge in maintaining a healthy balance between overtreatment and missed diagnosis in the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). The current study aimed to identify significant risk factors of malignant IPMN from a series of clinical and radiological parameters that are widely available and noninvasive and develop a method to individually predict the risk of malignant IPMN to improve its management.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 168 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with IPMN after individualized pancreatic resection between June, 2012 and December, 2020. Independent predictors determined using both univariate and multivariate analyses to construct a predictive model. The discriminatory power of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Decision curve analysis was performed to demonstrate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Internal cross validation was performed to assess the validity of the predictive model.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, five significant independent risk factors were identified: increased serum CA19-9 level, low prognostic nutritional index (PNI), cyst size, enhancing mural nodule, and main pancreatic duct diameter. The nomogram based on the parameters mentioned above had outstanding performance in distinguishing malignancy, with an AUC of 0.907 (95% confidence interval: 0.859-0.956, p < 0.05), which remained 0.875 after internal cross-validation, and showed good clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSION

A novel nomogram for predicting malignant IPMN first introducing PNI was developed, which may aid in improving IPMN management. Nevertheless, external validation is required to confirm its efficacy.

The Role of Genetic, Metabolic, Inflammatory, and Immunologic Mediators in the Progression of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms to Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) have the potential to progress to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). As with any progression to malignancy, there are a variety of genetic and metabolic changes, as well as other disruptions to the cellular microenvironment including immune alterations and inflammation, that can contribute to tumorigenesis. Previous studies further characterized these alterations, revealing changes in lipid and glucose metabolism, and signaling pathways that mediate the progression of IPMN to PDAC. With the increased diagnosis of IPMNs and pancreatic cysts on imaging, the opportunity to attenuate risk with the removal of high-risk lesions is possible with the understanding of what factors accelerate malignant progression and how they can be clinically utilized to determine the level of dysplasia and stratify the risk of progression. Here, we reviewed the genetic, metabolic, inflammatory, and immunologic pathways regulating the progression of IPMN to PDAC.

Circulating cytokines allow for identification of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are the precursor lesions of pancreatic cancers, requiring active surgical intervention during cancer development. However, the current criteria for predicting malignant IPMNs remain challenging and limited. Hence, this study aimed to assess the discriminatory performance of circulating cytokines, including TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8, then build a novel predictive model to improve the diagnostic accuracy.

METHOD

A total of 131 retrospective (from March 2016 to December 2019) and 53 prospective (from March 2020 to January 2021) patients who were histologically confirmed as IPMNs were consecutively collected and analyzed.

RESULT

The circulating levels of TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 were significantly elevated in malignant IPMNs, and were verified as independent factors for malignant IPMNs (p < 0.05). Then, a novel score, the circulating cytokine score (CCS), was calculated and demonstrated as an independent predictive indicator with a higher area under the curve (AUC) than each cytokine alone (p < 0.001). Besides the CCS, two high-risk stigmata features, the presence of solid component (PSC), and main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilation ≥10 mm were also demonstrated as independent indicators for predicting malignant IPMNs. Finally, a novel nomogram incorporating the CCS and these two high-risk stigmata features presented a remarkable diagnostic performance, both in the training and validation cohorts with AUCs of 0.928 and 0.873, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The CCS can be considered a novel independent predictive indicator for malignant IPMNs. Additionally, the formulated nomogram model integrating the CCS, PSC, and MPD ≥10 mm can be a valuable and promising tool for predicting the malignant transformation of IPMNs during long-term follow-ups to assist in timely and accurate surgical decisions.

MRI-Based Pancreatic Atrophy Is Associated With Malignancy or Invasive Carcinoma in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

Background

Abrupt change in the caliber of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) with distal pancreatic atrophy (PA) was considered as one of worrisome features in the International Association of Pancreatology guideline and American College of Gastroenterology guideline for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). However, this feature was not included in other guidelines. Moreover, the association between PA alone and malignancy in IPMNs has not been fully evaluated. In the present study, we investigated the role of image-based PA in identifying malignant IPMNs or invasive carcinoma.

Methods

A total of 186 patients with IPMNs were included for analysis. The tumor size, location, MPD diameter, presence of a mural nodule (MN), and PA were evaluated using magnetic resonance imaging. Demographic information and serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels were also collected. IPMNs with high-grade dysplasia and associated invasive carcinoma were regarded as malignant IPMNs.

Results

PA was observed in 34 cases (18.3%). The occurrence of malignant IPMNs or invasive carcinoma in patients with PA were significantly higher than in those without PA (52.9% vs. 22.3%; 44.1% vs. 8.9%, all P < 0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that PA was an independently associated factor for malignant IPMNs [odds ratio (OR) = 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-6.78] or invasive carcinoma (OR = 7.78, 95%CI: 2.62-23.10) after modified with confounders. Subgroup analysis in MPD-involved IPMNs also indicated that PA was an independently associated factor for invasive carcinoma (OR = 9.72, 95%CI: 2.43-38.88). PA had a similar performance with MPD plus MN [the area under the curve (AUC) was both 0.71] in identifying malignancy. PA had a higher performance in identifying invasive carcinoma in MPD-involved IPMNs than MN (AUC = 0.71 vs. 0.65, P = 0.02).

Conclusion

Our data showed that imaging-based PA was associated with malignancy or invasive carcinoma regardless of abrupt change in the caliber of MPD in IPMNs. PA had an acceptable performance in identifying malignant IPMNs.

Humoral Predictors of Malignancy in IPMN: A Review of the Literature

Pancreatic cystic lesions are increasingly detected in cross-sectional imaging. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a mucin-producing subtype of the pancreatic cyst lesions arising from the pancreatic duct system. IPMN is a potential precursor of pancreatic cancer. The transformation of IPMN in pancreatic cancer is progressive and requires the occurrence of low-grade dysplasia, high-grade dysplasia, and ultimately invasive cancer. Jaundice, enhancing mural nodule >5 mm, main pancreatic duct diameter >10 mm, and positive cytology for high-grade dysplasia are considered high-risk stigmata of malignancy. While increased levels of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) (>37 U/mL), main pancreatic duct diameter 5-9.9 mm, cyst diameter >40 mm, enhancing mural nodules <5 mm, IPMN-induced acute pancreatitis, new onset of diabetes, cyst grow-rate >5 mm/year are considered worrisome features of malignancy. However, cross-sectional imaging is often inadequate in the prediction of high-grade dysplasia and invasive cancer. Several studies evaluated the role of humoral and intra-cystic biomarkers in the prediction of malignancy in IPMN. Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CA 19-9, intra-cystic CEA, intra-cystic glucose, and cystic fluid cytology are widely used in clinical practice to distinguish between mucinous and non-mucinous cysts and to predict the presence of invasive cancer. Other biomarkers such as cystic fluid DNA sequencing, microRNA (mi-RNA), circulating microvesicles, and liquid biopsy are the new options for the mini-invasive diagnosis of degenerated IPMN. The aim of this study is to review the literature to assess the role of humoral and intracystic biomarkers in the prediction of advanced IPMN with high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma.