Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study

Risk factors of 180-day rebleeding after management of blunt splenic injury without surgery and embolization: a national database study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to identify risk factors for rebleeding within 180 days post-discharge in blunt splenic injury patients managed without splenectomy or embolization.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Adult patients aged ≥ 18 years with blunt splenic injury (ICD-9-CM codes 865.01-865.09) from 2000 to 2012 were included. Patients who died, underwent splenectomy (ICD-9-OP codes 41.5, 41.42,41.43, and 41.95) or transcatheter arterial embolization (TAE) (ICD-9-OP codes 39.79 and 99.29) on the first admission were excluded. The primary endpoint was rebleeding, which was identified if patients underwent splenectomy or TAE at 180 days after discharge. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors, which were validated in a separate cohort.

RESULTS

Of 6,140 patients, 80 (1.302%) experienced rebleeding within 180 days. Five significant risk factors were identified: age < 54 years (aOR 3.129, p = 0.014), male sex (aOR 2.691, p = 0.010), non-traffic accident-induced injury (aOR 2.459, p = 0.006), ISS ≥ 16 (aOR 2.130, p = 0.021), and congestive heart failure (aOR 6.014, p = 0.006). We generate Delayed Splenic Bleeding System (DSBS). Patients with > 2 points had significantly higher rebleeding rates (risk-identifying cohort: 2.2% vs. 0.6%, OR 3.790, p < 0.001; validation cohort: 2.6% vs. 0.8%, OR 3.129, p = 0.022).

CONCLUSIONS

Age < 54 years, male, non-traffic accident-induced injury, ISS ≥ 16, and congestive heart failure are risk factors of rebleeding within 180 days after discharge from treating blunt splenic injury without splenectomy or embolization. Despite limitations, this study underscores large-scale data's role in identifying risks which can aid clinicians in prioritizing additional interventions during NOM.

Predictive model for contralateral inguinal hernia repair within three years of primary repair: a nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Limited reports have discussed the risk factors for contralateral inguinal hernia (CIH) repair. We generated a risk factor scoring system to predict CIH within 3 years after unilateral inguinal hernia repair.

METHODS

We extracted the admission data of patients aged ≥ 18 years who underwent primary unilateral inguinal hernia repair without any other operation from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients were randomly divided into 80% and 20% validation cohorts. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression model was used to generate the scoring system, which was used in the validation group.

RESULTS

Overall, 170,492 adult men were included, with a median follow-up of 87 months. The scoring system ranged from 0-5 points, composited with age (< 45 years, 0 points; 45-65 years, 2 points; 65-80 years, 3 points; > 80 years, 2 points) and two comorbidities (cirrhosis and prostate disease: 1 point each). The areas under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.606 and 0.551 for the derivation and validation groups, respectively. The rates and adjusted odds ratios (OR) of CIH repair in the derivation group were 3.0% at 0-2 points, 5.5% (1.854, p < 0.001) at 3, 6.7% (2.279, p < 0.001) at 4, and 6.9% (2.348, p < 0.001) at 5, with similar results in the validation group [2.3% at 0-2 points, 3.8% (1.668, p < 0.001) at 3, 5.4% (2.386, p < 0.001) at 4, and 6.8% (3.033, p < 0.001) at 5].

CONCLUSIONS

The CIH scoring system effectively predicted CIH repair within three years of primary unilateral inguinal hernia repair. Surgeons could perform laparoscopic surgery with CIH scores > 2 points which enables easier contralateral exploration and repair during the same surgery, without additional incisions, to minimize the need for future surgeries. However, further prospective validation of this scoring system is required.

Assessing risk of recurrent small bowel obstruction after non-operative management in patients with history of intra-abdominal surgery: a population-based comprehensive analysis in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Despite a significant 30% ten-year readmission rate for SBO patients, investigations into recurrent risk factors after non-operative management are scarce. The study aims to generate a risk factor scoring system, the 'Small Bowel Obstruction Recurrence Score' (SBORS), predicting 6-month recurrence of small bowel obstruction (SBO) after successful non-surgical management in patients who have history of intra-abdominal surgery.

METHODS

We analyzed data from patients aged ≥ 18 with a history of intra-abdominal surgery and diagnosed with SBO (ICD-9 code: 560, 568) and were successful treated non-surgically between 2004 and 2008. Participants were divided into model-derivation (80%) and validation (20%) group.

RESULTS

We analyzed 23,901 patients and developed the SBORS based on factors including the length of hospital stay > 4 days, previous operations > once, hemiplegia, extra-abdominal and intra-abdominal malignancy, esophagogastric surgery and intestino-colonic surgery. Scores > 2 indicated higher rates and risks of recurrence within 6 months (12.96% vs. 7.27%, OR 1.898, p < 0.001 in model-derivation group, 12.60% vs. 7.05%, OR 1.901, p < 0.001 in validation group) with a significantly increased risk of mortality and operative events for recurrent episodes. The SBORS model demonstrated good calibration and acceptable discrimination, with an area under curve values of 0.607 and 0.599 for the score generation and validation group, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We established the effective 'SBORS' to predict 6-month SBO recurrence risk in patients who have history of intra-abdominal surgery and have been successfully managed non-surgically for the initial obstruction event. Those with scores > 2 face higher recurrence rates and operative risks after successful non-surgical management.

Predicting in-hospital mortality risk for perforated peptic ulcer surgery: the PPUMS scoring system and the benefit of laparoscopic surgery: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The major treatment for perforated peptic ulcers (PPU) is surgery. It remains unclear which patient may not get benefit from surgery due to comorbidity. This study aimed to generate a scoring system by predicting mortality for patients with PPU who received non-operative management (NOM) and surgical treatment.

METHOD

We extracted the admission data of adult (≥ 18 years) patients with PPU disease from the NHIRD database. We randomly divided patients into 80% model derivation and 20% validation cohorts. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression model was applied to generate the scoring system, PPUMS. We then apply the scoring system to the validation group.

RESULT

The PPUMS score ranged from 0 to 8 points, composite with age (< 45: 0 points, 45-65: 1 point, 65-80: 2 points, > 80: 3 points), and five comorbidities (congestive heart failure, severe liver disease, renal disease, history of malignancy, and obesity: 1 point each). The areas under ROC curve were 0.785 and 0.787 in the derivation and validation groups. The in-hospital mortality rates in the derivation group were 0.6% (0 points), 3.4% (1 point), 9.0% (2 points), 19.0% (3 points), 30.2% (4 points), and 45.9% when PPUMS > 4 point. Patients with PPUMS > 4 had a similar in-hospital mortality risk between the surgery group [laparotomy: odds ratio (OR) = 0.729, p = 0.320, laparoscopy: OR = 0.772, p = 0.697] and the non-surgery group. We identified similar results in the validation group.

CONCLUSION

PPUMS scoring system effectively predicts in-hospital mortality for perforated peptic ulcer patients. It factors in age and specific comorbidities is highly predictive and well-calibrated with a reliable AUC of 0.785-0.787. Surgery, no matter laparotomy or laparoscope, significantly reduced mortality for scores <  = 4. However, patients with a score > 4 did not show this difference, calling for tailored approaches to treatment based on risk assessment. Further prospective validation is suggested.