Child-Pugh Score, MELD Score and Glasgow Blatchford Score to Predict the In-Hospital Outcome of Portal Hypertensive Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: An Experience from Tertiary Healthcare System

Scoring systems for risk stratification in upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding

Several scoring systems have been developed for both upper and lower GI bleeding to predict the bleeding severity and discriminate between low-risk patients, who may be suitable for outpatient management, and those who would likely need hospital-based interventions and are at high risk for adverse outcomes. Risk scores created to identify low-risk patients (namely the Glasgow Blatchford Score and the Oakland score) showed very good discriminative performances and their implementation has proven to be effective in reducing hospital admissions and healthcare burden. Conversely, the performances of risk scores in identifying specific adverse events to define high-risk patients are less accurate, and whether their integration into routine clinical practice has a tangible impact on patient management remains unproven. This review describes the existing risk score systems for GI bleeding, emphasizes key research findings, elucidates the circumstances in which their utilization can be beneficial, examines their constraints when considering routine clinical application, and discuss future development.

A Predictive Model for Identifying Low Medication Adherence Among Patients with Cirrhosis

Purpose

This study aims to identify the novel risk predictors of low medication adherence of cirrhosis patients in a large cohort and construct an applicable predictive model to provide clinicians with a simple and precise personalized prediction tool.

Patients and Methods

Patients with cirrhosis were recruited from the inpatient populations at the Department of Infectious Diseases of Tangdu Hospital. Patients who did not meet the inclusion criteria were excluded. The primary outcome was medication adherence, which was analyzed by the medication possession ratio (MPR). Potential predictive factors, including demographics, the severity of cirrhosis, knowledge of disease and medical treatment, social support, self-care agency and pill burdens, were collected by questionnaires. Predictive factors were selected by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Then, a nomogram was constructed. The decision curve analysis (DCA), clinical application curve analysis, ROC curve analysis, Brier score and mean squared error (MSE) score were utilized to assess the performance of the model. In addition, the bootstrapping method was used for internal validation.

Results

Among the enrolled patients (460), most had good or moderate (344, 74.78%) medical adherence. The main risk factors for non-adherence include young age (≤50 years), low education level, low income, short duration of disease (<10 years), low Child-Plush class, poor knowledge of disease and medical treatment, poor social support, low self-care agency and high pill burden. The nomogram comprised these factors showed good calibration and good discrimination (AUC = 0.938, 95% CI = 0.918-0.956; Brier score = 0.14). In addition, the MSE value was 0.03, indicating no overfitting.

Conclusion

This study identified predictive factors regarding low medication adherence among patients with cirrhosis, and a predictive nomogram was constructed. This model could help clinicians identify patients with a high risk of low medication adherence and intervention measures can be taken in time.

Targeting the A3 adenosine receptor to treat hepatocellular carcinoma: anti-cancer and hepatoprotective effects

The A3 adenosine receptor (A3AR) is over-expressed in human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cells. Namodenoson, an A3AR agonist, induces de-regulation of the Wnt and NF-kB signaling pathways resulting in apoptosis of HCC cells. In a phase I healthy volunteer study and in a phase I/II study in patients with advanced HCC, namodenoson was safe and well tolerated. Preliminary evidence of antitumor activity was observed in the phase I/II trial in a subset of patients with advanced disease, namely patients with Child-Pugh B (CPB) hepatic dysfunction, whose median overall survival (OS) on namodenoson was 8.1 months. A phase II blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled trial was subsequently conducted in patients with advanced HCC and CPB cirrhosis. The primary endpoint of OS superiority over placebo was not met. However, subgroup analysis of CPB7 patients (34 namodenoson-treated, 22 placebo-treated) showed nonsignificant differences in OS/progression-free survival and a significant difference in 12-month OS (44% vs 18%, p = 0.028). Partial response was achieved in 9% of namodenoson-treated patients vs 0% in placebo-treated patients. Based on the positive efficacy signal in HCC CPB7 patients and the favorable safety profile of namodenoson, a phase III study is underway.

Associations of gallbladder and gallstone parameters with clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis

Background

Morphologic changes in the gallbladder and gallstones are common in cirrhotic patients, but their associations with outcomes of cirrhotic patients are unclear.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 206 cirrhotic patients and measured their gallbladder length and width, gallbladder wall thickness, presence of gallstones, and gallstones’ length and width in axial contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images. X-tile software was utilized to calculate the optimal cutoff values of these parameters for evaluating survival and hepatic decompensation events in the cirrhosis group. Their associations with survival were explored by Cox regression analyses and Kaplan–Meier curve analyses. Their associations with hepatic decompensation events were evaluated by competing risk analyses and Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curve analyses where death was a competing event.

Results

Cirrhotic patients with gallbladder length < 72 mm had a significantly higher cumulative survival rate than those with a length of ≥ 72 mm (P = 0.049 by log-rank test), but gallbladder width, gallbladder wall thickness, presence of gallstones, and gallstones’ length and width were not significantly associated with survival (P = 0.10, P = 0.14, P = 0.97, P = 0.73, and P = 0.73 by log-rank tests, respectively). Cirrhotic patients with gallbladder wall thickness < 3.4 mm had a significantly lower cumulative rate of hepatic decompensation events than those with a wall thickness of ≥ 3.4 mm (P = 0.02 by Gray’s test), but gallbladder length and width, presence of gallstones, and gallstones’ length and width were not significantly associated with hepatic decompensation events (P = 0.15, P = 0.15, P = 0.54, P = 0.76, and P = 0.54 by Gray’s tests, respectively).

Conclusion

Changes in gallbladder length and gallbladder wall thickness, rather than gallstone parameters, may be in parallel with the long-term outcomes of cirrhotic patients.