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Lambert P, Galloway K, Feely A, Bucher O, Czaykowski P, Hebbard P, Kim JO, Pitz M, Singh H, Thiessen M, Decker KM. Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis. JNCI Cancer Spectr 2024; 8:pkae001. [PMID: 38177077 PMCID: PMC10868396 DOI: 10.1093/jncics/pkae001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2023] [Revised: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Few studies have investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival. Those studies that have included pandemic vs prepandemic comparisons can mask differences during different periods of the pandemic such as COVID-19 waves. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis and to identify time points during the pandemic when observed survival deviated from expected survival. METHODS A retrospective population-based cohort study that included individuals diagnosed with cancer between January 2015 and September 2021 from Manitoba, Canada, was performed. Interrupted time series analyses with Royston-Parmar models as well as Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and delta restricted mean survival times at 1 year were used to compare survival rates for those diagnosed before and after the pandemic. Analyses were performed for 11 cancer types. RESULTS Survival at 1 year for most cancer types was not statistically different during the pandemic compared with prepandemic except for individuals aged 50-74 years who were diagnosed with lung cancer from April to June 2021 (delta restricted mean survival times = -31.6 days, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -58.3 to -7.2 days). CONCLUSIONS With the exception of individuals diagnosed with lung cancer, the COVID-19 pandemic did not impact overall 1-year survival in Manitoba. Additional research is needed to examine the impact of the pandemic on long-term cancer survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascal Lambert
- Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Katie Galloway
- Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Allison Feely
- Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Oliver Bucher
- Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Piotr Czaykowski
- Department of Community Health Sciences, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Internal Medicine, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Medical Oncology and Hematology, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Pamela Hebbard
- Department of Surgery, Section of General Surgery, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Julian O Kim
- Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Radiology, Section of Radiation Oncology, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Radiation Oncology, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Marshall Pitz
- Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Community Health Sciences, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Internal Medicine, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Medical Oncology and Hematology, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Harminder Singh
- Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Community Health Sciences, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Internal Medicine, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Maclean Thiessen
- Department of Internal Medicine, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Medical Oncology and Hematology, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Kathleen M Decker
- Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Community Health Sciences, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
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