Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II

Classification of the Urgency of the Procedure and Outcome of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection

Surgery for type A aortic dissection (TAAD) is associated with a high risk of early mortality. The prognostic impact of a new classification of the urgency of the procedure was evaluated in this multicenter cohort study. Data on consecutive patients who underwent surgery for acute TAAD were retrospectively collected in the multicenter, retrospective European Registry of TAAD (ERTAAD). The rates of in-hospital mortality of 3,902 consecutive patients increased along with the ERTAAD procedure urgency grades: urgent procedure 10.0%, emergency procedure grade 1 13.3%, emergency procedure grade 2 22.1%, salvage procedure grade 1 45.6%, and salvage procedure grade 2 57.1% (p <0.0001). Preoperative arterial lactate correlated with the urgency grades. Inclusion of the ERTAAD procedure urgency classification significantly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of the regression model and the integrated discrimination indexes and the net reclassification indexes. The risk of postoperative stroke/global brain ischemia, mesenteric ischemia, lower limb ischemia, dialysis, and acute heart failure increased along with the urgency grades. In conclusion, the urgency of surgical repair of acute TAAD, which seems to have a significant impact on the risk of in-hospital mortality, may be useful to improve the stratification of the operative risk of these critically ill patients. This study showed that salvage surgery for TAAD is justified because half of the patients may survive to discharge.

Baseline risk factors of in-hospital mortality after surgery for acute type A aortic dissection: an ERTAAD study

Background

Surgery for type A aortic dissection (TAAD) is associated with high risk of mortality. Current risk scoring methods have a limited predictive accuracy.

Methods

Subjects were patients who underwent surgery for acute TAAD at 18 European centers of cardiac surgery from the European Registry of Type A Aortic Dissection (ERTAAD).

Results

Out of 3,902 patients included in the ERTAAD, 2,477 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the validation dataset (2,229 patients), the rate of in-hospital mortality was 18.4%. The rate of composite outcome (in-hospital death, stroke/global ischemia, dialysis, and/or acute heart failure) was 41.2%, and 10-year mortality rate was 47.0%. Logistic regression identified the following patient-related variables associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality [area under the curve (AUC), 0.755, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.729-0.780; Brier score 0.128]: age; estimated glomerular filtration rate; arterial lactate; iatrogenic dissection; left ventricular ejection fraction ≤50%; invasive mechanical ventilation; cardiopulmonary resuscitation immediately before surgery; and cerebral, mesenteric, and peripheral malperfusion. The estimated risk score was associated with an increased risk of composite outcome (AUC, 0.689, 95% CI, 0.667-0.711) and of late mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 1.035, 95% CI, 1.031-1.038; Harrell's C 0.702; Somer's D 0.403]. In the validation dataset (248 patients), the in-hospital mortality rate was 16.1%, the composite outcome rate was 41.5%, and the 10-year mortality rate was 49.1%. The estimated risk score was predictive of in-hospital mortality (AUC, 0.703, 95% CI, 0.613-0.793; Brier score 0.121; slope 0.905) and of composite outcome (AUC, 0.682, 95% CI, 0.614-0.749). The estimated risk score was predictive of late mortality (HR, 1.035, 95% CI, 1.031-1.038; Harrell's C 0.702; Somer's D 0.403), also when hospital deaths were excluded from the analysis (HR, 1.024, 95% CI, 1.018-1.031; Harrell's C 0.630; Somer's D 0.261).

Conclusions

The present analysis identified several baseline clinical risk factors, along with preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate and arterial lactate, which are predictive of in-hospital mortality and major postoperative adverse events after surgical repair of acute TAAD. These risk factors may be valuable components for risk adjustment in the evaluation of surgical and anesthesiological strategies aiming to improve the results of surgery for TAAD.

Clinical Trial Registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT04831073.