A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm to Automatically Predict Visual Outcomes in Intravitreal Ranibizumab-Treated Patients with Diabetic Macular Edema

Prediction of Long-Term Treatment Outcomes for Diabetic Macular Edema Using a Generative Adversarial Network

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to analyze optical coherence tomography (OCT) images of generative adversarial networks (GANs) for the prediction of diabetic macular edema after long-term treatment.

Methods

Diabetic macular edema (DME) eyes (n = 327) underwent anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatments every 4 weeks for 52 weeks from a randomized controlled trial (CRTH258B2305, KINGFISHER) were included. OCT B-scan images through the foveal center at weeks 0, 4, 12, and 52, fundus photography, and retinal thickness (RT) maps were collected. GAN models were trained to generate probable OCT images after treatment. Input for each model were comprised of either the baseline B-scan alone or combined with additional OCT, thickness map, or fundus images. Generated OCT B-scan images were compared with real week 52 images.

Results

For 30 test images, 28, 29, 15, and 30 gradable OCT images were generated by CycleGAN, UNIT, Pix2PixHD, and RegGAN, respectively. In comparison with the real week 52, these GAN models showed positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, specificity, and kappa for residual fluid ranging from 0.500 to 0.889, 0.455 to 1.000, 0.357 to 0.857, and 0.537 to 0.929, respectively. For hard exudate (HE), they were ranging from 0.500 to 1.000, 0.545 to 0.900, 0.600 to 1.000, and 0.642 to 0.894, respectively. Models trained with week 4 and 12 B-scans as additional inputs to the baseline B-scan showed improved performance.

Conclusions

GAN models could predict residual fluid and HE after long-term anti-VEGF treatment of DME.

Translational Relevance

The implementation of this tool may help identify potential nonresponders after long-term treatment, thereby facilitating management planning for these eyes.

Aflibercept or ranibizumab for diabetic macular edema

Background

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is the primary substance involved in retinal barrier breach. VEGF overexpression may cause diabetic macular edema (DME). Laser photocoagulation of the macula is the standard treatment for DME; however, recently, intravitreal anti-VEGF injections have surpassed laser treatment. Our aim was to evaluate the efficacy of intravitreal injections of aflibercept or ranibizumab for managing treatment-naive DME.

Methods

This single-center, retrospective, interventional, comparative study included eyes with visual impairment due to treatment-naive DME that underwent intravitreal injection of either aflibercept 2 mg/0.05 mL or ranibizumab 0.5 mg/0.05 mL at Al-Azhar University Hospitals, Egypt between March 2023 and January 2024. Demographic data and full ophthalmological examination results at baseline and 1, 3, and 6 months post-injection were collected, including the best-corrected distance visual acuity (BCDVA) in logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) notation, slit-lamp biomicroscopy, dilated fundoscopy, and central subfield thickness (CST) measured using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

Results

Overall, the 96 eyes of 96 patients with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 57 (10) (range: 20-74) years and a male-to-female ratio of 1:2.7 were allocated to one of two groups with comparable age, sex, diabetes mellitus duration, and presence of other comorbidities (all P >0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in baseline diabetic retinopathy status or DME type between groups (both P >0.05). In both groups, the median (IQR) BCDVA significantly improved from 0.7 (0.8) logMAR at baseline to 0.4 (0.1) logMAR at 6 months post-injection (both P = 0.001), with no statistically significant difference between groups at all follow-up visits (all P >0.05). The median (IQR) CST significantly decreased in the aflibercept group from 347 (166) µm at baseline to 180 (233) µm at 6 months post-injection, and it decreased in the ranibizumab group from 360 (180) µm at baseline to 190 (224) µm at 6 months post-injection (both P = 0.001), with no statistically significant differences between groups at all follow-up visits (all P >0.05). No serious adverse effects were documented in either group.

Conclusions

Ranibizumab and aflibercept were equally effective in achieving the desired anatomical and functional results in patients with treatment-naïve DME in short-term follow-up without significant differences in injection counts between both drugs. Larger prospective, randomized, double-blinded trials with longer follow-up periods are needed to confirm our preliminary results.

Prediction of postoperative visual acuity in patients with age-related cataracts using macular optical coherence tomography-based deep learning method

Background

To predict postoperative visual acuity (VA) in patients with age-related cataracts using macular optical coherence tomography-based deep learning method.

Methods

A total of 2,051 eyes from 2,051 patients with age-related cataracts were included. Preoperative optical coherence tomography (OCT) images and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) were collected. Five novel models (I, II, III, IV, and V) were proposed to predict postoperative BCVA. The dataset was randomly divided into a training (n = 1,231), validation (n = 410), and test set (n = 410). The performance of the models in predicting exact postoperative BCVA was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The performance of the models in predicting whether postoperative BCVA was improved by at least two lines in the visual chart (0.2LogMAR) was evaluated using precision, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 and area under curve (AUC).

Results

Model V containing preoperative OCT images with horizontal and vertical B-scans, macular morphological feature indices, and preoperative BCVA had a better performance in predicting postoperative VA, with the lowest MAE (0.1250 and 0.1194LogMAR) and RMSE (0.2284 and 0.2362LogMAR), and the highest precision (90.7% and 91.7%), sensitivity (93.4% and 93.8%), accuracy (88% and 89%), F1 (92% and 92.7%) and AUCs (0.856 and 0.854) in the validation and test datasets, respectively.

Conclusion

The model had a good performance in predicting postoperative VA, when the input information contained preoperative OCT scans, macular morphological feature indices, and preoperative BCVA. The preoperative BCVA and macular OCT indices were of great significance in predicting postoperative VA in patients with age-related cataracts.

Predictors of limited early response to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy in neovascular age-related macular degeneration with machine learning feature importance

PURPOSE

Patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) have varying responses to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections. Limited early response (LER) after three monthly loading doses is associated with poor long-term vision outcomes. This study predicts LER in nAMD and uses feature importance analysis to explain how baseline variables influence predicted LER risk.

METHODS

Baseline age, best visual acuity (BVA), central subfield thickness (CST), and baseline and 3 months intraretinal fluid (IRF) and subretinal fluid (SRF) for 286 eyes were collected in a retrospective clinical chart review. At month 3, LER was defined as the presence of fluid, while early response (ER) was the absence thereof. Decision tree classification and feature importance methods determined the influence of baseline age, BVA, CST, IRF, and SRF, on predicted LER risk.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-seven eyes were LERs and 119 were ERs. The algorithm achieved area under the curve = 0.66 in predicting LER. Baseline SRF was most important for predicting LER while age, BVA, CST, and IRF were somewhat less important. Nonlinear trends were observed between baseline variables and predicted LER risk. Zones of increased predicted LER risk were identified, including age <74 years, and CST <290 or >350 μm, IRF >750 nL, and SRF >150 nL.

CONCLUSION

These findings explain baseline variable importance for predicting LER and show SRF to be the most important. The nonlinear impact of baseline variables on predicted risk is shown, increasing understanding of LER and aiding clinicians in assessing personalized LER risk.

Binary dose level classification of tumour microvascular response to radiotherapy using artificial intelligence analysis of optical coherence tomography images

The dominant consequence of irradiating biological systems is cellular damage, yet microvascular damage begins to assume an increasingly important role as the radiation dose levels increase. This is currently becoming more relevant in radiation medicine with its pivot towards higher-dose-per-fraction/fewer fractions treatment paradigm (e.g., stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT)). We have thus developed a 3D preclinical imaging platform based on speckle-variance optical coherence tomography (svOCT) for longitudinal monitoring of tumour microvascular radiation responses in vivo. Here we present an artificial intelligence (AI) approach to analyze the resultant microvascular data. In this initial study, we show that AI can successfully classify SBRT-relevant clinical radiation dose levels at multiple timepoints (t = 2–4 weeks) following irradiation (10 Gy and 30 Gy cohorts) based on induced changes in the detected microvascular networks. Practicality of the obtained results, challenges associated with modest number of animals, their successful mitigation via augmented data approaches, and advantages of using 3D deep learning methodologies, are discussed. Extension of this encouraging initial study to longitudinal AI-based time-series analysis for treatment outcome predictions at finer dose level gradations is envisioned.

Prediction of Visual Acuity after anti-VEGF Therapy in Diabetic Macular Edema by Machine Learning

PURPOSE

To predict visual acuity (VA) 1 month after anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME) by using machine learning.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 281 eyes with DME receiving intravitreal anti-VEGF treatment from January 1, 2019, to April 1, 2021. Eighteen features from electronic medical records and measurements data from OCT images were extracted. The data obtained from January 1, 2019, to November 1, 2020, were used as the training set; the data obtained from November 1, 2020, to April 1, 2021, were used as the validation set. Six different machine learning algorithms were used to predict VA in patients after anti-VEGF therapy. After the initial detailed investigation, we designed an optimization model for convenient application. The VA predicted by machine learning was compared with the ground truth.

RESULTS

The ensemble algorithm (linear regression + random forest regressor) performed best in VA and VA variance predictions. In the validation set, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) of VA predictions were 0.137-0.153 logMAR (within 7-8 letters), and the mean square errors (MSEs) were 0.033-0.045 logMAR (within 2-3 letters) for the 1-month VA predictions, respectively. For the prediction of VA variance at 1 month, the MAEs were 0.164-0.169 logMAR (within 9 letters), and the MSEs were 0.056-0.059 logMAR (within 3 letters), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our machine learning models could accurately predict VA and VA variance in DME patients receiving anti-VEGF therapy 1 month after, which would be much valuable to guide precise individualized interventions and manage expectations in clinical practice.

Narrative review of artificial intelligence in diabetic macular edema: Diagnosis and predicting treatment response using optical coherence tomography

Diabetic macular edema (DME), being a frequent manifestation of DR, disrupts the retinal symmetry. This event is particularly triggered by vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGF). Intravitreal injections of anti-VEGFs have been the most practiced treatment but an expensive option. A major challenge associated with this treatment is determining an optimal treatment regimen and differentiating patients who do not respond to anti-VEGF. As it has a significant burden for both the patient and the health care providers if the patient is not responding, any clinically acceptable method to predict the treatment outcomes holds huge value in the efficient management of DME. In such situations, artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML)-based algorithms come useful as they can analyze past clinical details of the patients and help clinicians to predict the patient's response to an anti-VEGF agent. The work presented here attempts to review the literature that is available from the peer research community to discuss solutions provided by AI/ML methodologies to tackle challenges in DME management. Lastly, a possibility for using two different types of data has been proposed, which is believed to be the key differentiators as compared to the similar and recent contributions from the peer research community.

An Optical Coherence Tomography-Based Deep Learning Algorithm for Visual Acuity Prediction of Highly Myopic Eyes After Cataract Surgery

Background

Due to complicated and variable fundus status of highly myopic eyes, their visual benefit from cataract surgery remains hard to be determined preoperatively. We therefore aimed to develop an optical coherence tomography (OCT)-based deep learning algorithms to predict the postoperative visual acuity of highly myopic eyes after cataract surgery.

Materials and Methods

The internal dataset consisted of 1,415 highly myopic eyes having cataract surgeries in our hospital. Another external dataset consisted of 161 highly myopic eyes from Heping Eye Hospital. Preoperative macular OCT images were set as the only feature. The best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 4 weeks after surgery was set as the ground truth. Five different deep learning algorithms, namely ResNet-18, ResNet-34, ResNet-50, ResNet-101, and Inception-v3, were used to develop the model aiming at predicting the postoperative BCVA, and an ensemble learning was further developed. The model was further evaluated in the internal and external test datasets.

Results

The ensemble learning showed the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1566 logMAR and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.2433 logMAR in the validation dataset. Promising outcomes in the internal and external test datasets were revealed with MAEs of 0.1524 and 0.1602 logMAR and RMSEs of 0.2612 and 0.2020 logMAR, respectively. Considerable sensitivity and precision were achieved in the BCVA < 0.30 logMAR group, with 90.32 and 75.34% in the internal test dataset and 81.75 and 89.60% in the external test dataset, respectively. The percentages of the prediction errors within ± 0.30 logMAR were 89.01% in the internal and 88.82% in the external test dataset.

Conclusion

Promising prediction outcomes of postoperative BCVA were achieved by the novel OCT-trained deep learning model, which will be helpful for the surgical planning of highly myopic cataract patients.

Machine learning-based prediction of anatomical outcome after idiopathic macular hole surgery

Background

To develop a machine learning (ML) model for the prediction of the idiopathic macular hole (IMH) status at 1 month after vitrectomy and internal limiting membrane peeling (VILMP) surgery.

Methods

A total of 288 IMH eyes from four ophthalmic centers were enrolled. All eyes underwent optical coherence tomography (OCT) examinations upon admission and one month after VILMP. First, 1,792 preoperative macular OCT parameters and 768 clinical variables of 256 eyes from two ophthalmic centers were used to train and internally validate ML models. Second, 224 preoperative macular OCT parameters and 96 clinical variables of 32 eyes from the other two centers were utilized for external validation. To fulfill the purpose of predicting postoperative IMH status (i.e., closed or open), five ML algorithms were trained and internally validated by the ten-fold cross-validation method, while the best-performing algorithm was further tested by an external validation set.

Results

In the internal validation, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the five ML algorithms were 0.882-0.951. The AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the best-performing algorithm (i.e., random forest, RF) were 0.951, 0.892, 0.973, and 0.904, respectively. In the external validation, the AUC of RF was 0.940, with an accuracy of 0.875, a specificity of 0.875, and a sensitivity of 0.958.

Conclusions

Based on the preoperative OCT parameters and clinical variables, our ML model achieved remarkable accuracy in predicting IMH status after VILMP. Therefore, ML models may help optimize surgical planning for IMH patients in the future.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Retinal Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT)

Ophthalmology has been at the forefront of medical specialties adopting artificial intelligence. This is primarily due to the "image-centric" nature of the field. Thanks to the abundance of patients' OCT scans, analysis of OCT imaging has greatly benefited from artificial intelligence to expand patient screening and facilitate clinical decision-making.In this review, we define the concepts of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning and how different artificial intelligence algorithms have been applied in OCT image analysis for disease screening, diagnosis, management, and prognosis.Finally, we address some of the challenges and limitations that might affect the incorporation of artificial intelligence in ophthalmology. These limitations mainly revolve around the quality and accuracy of datasets used in the algorithms and their generalizability, false negatives, and the cultural challenges around the adoption of the technology.

Comparison of Diagnosis Accuracy between a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Model and Linear Regression in Digestive Disease Patients: an Empirical Research

Introduction

A Noninvasive diagnosis model for digestive diseases is the vital issue for the current clinical research. Our systematic review is aimed at demonstrating diagnosis accuracy between the BP-ANN algorithm and linear regression in digestive disease patients, including their activation function and data structure.

Methods

We reported the systematic review according to the PRISMA guidelines. We searched related articles from seven electronic scholarly databases for comparison of the diagnosis accuracy focusing on BP-ANN and linear regression. The characteristics, patient number, input/output marker, diagnosis accuracy, and results/conclusions related to comparison were extracted independently based on inclusion criteria.

Results

Nine articles met all the criteria and were enrolled in our review. Of those enrolled articles, the publishing year ranged from 1991 to 2017. The sample size ranged from 42 to 3222 digestive disease patients, and all of the patients showed comparable biomarkers between the BP-ANN algorithm and linear regression. According to our study, 8 literature demonstrated that the BP-ANN model is superior to linear regression in predicting the disease outcome based on AUROC results. One literature reported linear regression to be superior to BP-ANN for the early diagnosis of colorectal cancer.

Conclusion

The BP-ANN algorithm and linear regression both had high capacity in fitting the diagnostic model and BP-ANN displayed more prediction accuracy for the noninvasive diagnosis model of digestive diseases. We compared the activation functions and data structure between BP-ANN and linear regression for fitting the diagnosis model, and the data suggested that BP-ANN was a comprehensive recommendation algorithm.

Automatic prediction of treatment outcomes in patients with diabetic macular edema using ensemble machine learning

Background

This study aimed to predict the treatment outcomes in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME) after 3 monthly anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) injections using machine learning (ML) based on pretreatment optical coherence tomography (OCT) images and clinical variables.

Methods

An ensemble ML system consisting of four deep learning (DL) models and five classical machine learning (CML) models was developed to predict the posttreatment central foveal thickness (CFT) and the best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA). A total of 363 OCT images and 7,587 clinical data records from 363 eyes were included in the training set (304 eyes) and external validation set (59 eyes). The DL models were trained using the OCT images, and the CML models were trained using the OCT images features and clinical variables. The predictive posttreatment CFT and BCVA values were compared with true outcomes obtained from the medical records.

Results

For CFT prediction, the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and R² of the best-performing model in the training set was 66.59, 93.73, and 0.71, respectively, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.90 for distinguishing the eyes with good anatomical response. The MAE, RMSE, and R² was 68.08, 97.63, and 0.74, respectively, with an AUC of 0.94 in the external validation set. For BCVA prediction, the MAE, RMSE, and R² of the best-performing model in the training set was 0.19, 0.29, and 0.60, respectively, with an AUC of 0.80 for distinguishing eyes with a good functional response. The external validation achieved a MAE, RMSE, and R² of 0.13, 0.20, and 0.68, respectively, with an AUC of 0.81.

Conclusions

Our ensemble ML system accurately predicted posttreatment CFT and BCVA after anti-VEGF injections in DME patients, and can be used to prospectively assess the efficacy of anti-VEGF therapy in DME patients.

Applications of Artificial Intelligence for the Detection, Management, and Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy

Rates of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and diabetic macular edema (DME), a common ocular complication of diabetes mellitus, are increasing worldwide. There is a substantial burden concerning the detection and management of this condition, particularly in low-resource settings, due to limitations such as the time, cost, and labor associated with current screening and treatment methods. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a modality of pattern recognition that has the potential to combat these limitations in a reliable and cost-effective way. This review explores the various applications of AI on the screening, management, and treatment of DR and DME. AI applications for detecting referable DR and DME have been the most thoroughly researched applications for this condition. While some studies exist using AI to stratify DR patients based on the risk of progression, predict treatment outcomes to anti-VEGF therapy, and explore the utilization of AI for clinical trials to develop new treatments for DR, further validation studies on larger datasets are warranted.