Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Predict Survival in Kidney Transplantation: A Review

Predicting kidney allograft survival with explainable machine learning

INTRODUCTION

Despite significant progress over the last decades in the survival of kidney allografts, several risk factors remain contributing to worsening kidney function or even loss of transplants. We aimed to evaluate a new machine learning method to identify these variables which may predict the early graft loss in kidney transplant patients and to assess their usefulness for improving clinical decisions.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was carried out with 627 kidney transplant patients followed at least three months. All these data were pre-processed, and their selected features were used to develop an automatically working a machine learning algorithm; this algorithm was then applied for training and parameterization of the model; and finally, the tested model was then used for the analysis of patients' features that were the most impactful for the prediction of clinical outcomes. Our models were evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm was used to interpret its predictions.

RESULTS

The final selected model achieved a precision of 0.81, a sensitivity of 0.61, a specificity of 0.89, and an AUC value of 0.84. In our model, serum creatinine levels of kidney transplant patients, evaluated at the hospital discharge, proved to be the most important factor in the decision-making for the allograft loss. Patients with a weight equivalent to a BMI closer to the normal range prior to a kidney transplant are less likely to experience graft loss compared to patients with a BMI below the normal range. The age of patients at transplantation and Polyomavirus (BKPyV) infection had significant impact on clinical outcomes in our model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our algorithm suggests that the main characteristics that impacted early allograft loss were serum creatinine levels at the hospital discharge, as well as the pre-transplant values such as body weight, age of patients, and their BKPyV infection. We propose that machine learning tools can be developed to effectively assist medical decision-making in kidney transplantation.

Stratification of Kidney Transplant Recipients Into Five Subgroups Based on Temporal Disease Trajectories

Background

Kidney transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients with end-stage renal disease. Considerable clinical research has focused on improving graft survival and an increasing number of kidney recipients die with a functioning graft. There is a need to improve patient survival and to better understand the individualized risk of comorbidities and complications. Here, we developed a method to stratify recipients into similar subgroups based on previous comorbidities and subsequently identify complications and for a subpopulation, laboratory test values associated with survival.

Methods

First, we identified significant disease patterns based on all hospital diagnoses from the Danish National Patient Registry for 5752 kidney transplant recipients from 1977 to 2018. Using hierarchical clustering, these longitudinal patterns of diseases segregate into 3 main clusters of glomerulonephritis, hypertension, and diabetes. As some recipients are diagnosed with diseases from >1 cluster, recipients are further stratified into 5 more fine-grained trajectory subgroups for which survival, stratified complication patterns as well as laboratory test values are analyzed.

Results

The study replicated known associations indicating that diabetes and low levels of albumin are associated with worse survival when investigating all recipients. However, stratification of recipients by trajectory subgroup showed additional associations. For recipients with glomerulonephritis, higher levels of basophils are significantly associated with poor survival, and these patients are more often diagnosed with bacterial infections. Additional associations were also found.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that disease trajectories can confirm known comorbidities and furthermore stratify kidney transplant recipients into clinical subgroups in which we can characterize stratified risk factors. We hope to motivate future studies to stratify recipients into more fine-grained, homogenous subgroups to better discover associations relevant for the individual patient and thereby enable more personalized disease-management and improve long-term outcomes and survival.

Maximizing utility of nondirected living liver donor grafts using machine learning

Objective

There is an unmet need for optimizing hepatic allograft allocation from nondirected living liver donors (ND-LLD).

Materials and method

Using OPTN living donor liver transplant (LDLT) data (1/1/2000-12/31/2019), we identified 6328 LDLTs (4621 right, 644 left, 1063 left-lateral grafts). Random forest survival models were constructed to predict 10-year graft survival for each of the 3 graft types.

Results

Donor-to-recipient body surface area ratio was an important predictor in all 3 models. Other predictors in all 3 models were: malignant diagnosis, medical location at LDLT (inpatient/ICU), and moderate ascites. Biliary atresia was important in left and left-lateral graft models. Re-transplant was important in right graft models. C-index for 10-year graft survival predictions for the 3 models were: 0.70 (left-lateral); 0.63 (left); 0.61 (right). Similar C-indices were found for 1-, 3-, and 5-year graft survivals. Comparison of model predictions to actual 10-year graft survivals demonstrated that the predicted upper quartile survival group in each model had significantly better actual 10-year graft survival compared to the lower quartiles (p<0.005).

Conclusion

When applied in clinical context, our models assist with the identification and stratification of potential recipients for hepatic grafts from ND-LLD based on predicted graft survivals, while accounting for complex donor-recipient interactions. These analyses highlight the unmet need for granular data collection and machine learning modeling to identify potential recipients who have the best predicted transplant outcomes with ND-LLD grafts.

A new approach to predicting mortality in dialysis patients using sociodemographic features based on artificial intelligence

One of the main problems that affect patients in dialysis therapy who are on the waiting list to receive a kidney transplant is predicting their survival time if they do not receive a transplant. This paper proposes a new approach to survival prediction based on artificial intelligence techniques combined with statistical methods to study the association between sociodemographic factors and patient survival on the waiting list if they do not receive a kidney transplant. This new approach consists of a first stage that uses the clustering techniques that are best suited to the data structure (K-Means, Mini Batch K-Means, Agglomerative Clustering and K-Modes) used to identify the risk profile of dialysis patients. Later, a new method called False Clustering Discovery Reduction is performed to determine the minimum number of populations to be studied, and whose mortality risk is statistically differentiable. This approach was applied to the OPTN medical dataset (n = 44,663). The procedure started from 11 initial clusters obtained with the Agglomerative technique, and was reduced to eight final risk populations, for which their Kaplan-Meier survival curves were provided. With this result, it is possible to make predictions regarding the survival time of a new patient who enters the waiting list if the sociodemographic profile of the patient is known. To do so, the predictive algorithm XGBoost is used, which allows the cluster to which it belongs to be predicted and the corresponding Kaplan-Meier curve to be associated with it. This prediction process is achieved with an overall Multi-class AUC of 99.08 %.

Development and validation of survival prediction model for gastric adenocarcinoma patients using deep learning: A SEER-based study

Background

The currently available prediction models, such as the Cox model, were too simplistic to correctly predict the outcome of gastric adenocarcinoma patients. This study aimed to develop and validate survival prediction models for gastric adenocarcinoma patients using the deep learning survival neural network.

Methods

A total of 14,177 patients with gastric adenocarcinoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in the study and randomly divided into the training and testing group with a 7:3 ratio. Two algorithms were chosen to build the prediction models, and both algorithms include random survival forest (RSF) and a deep learning based-survival prediction algorithm (DeepSurv). Also, a traditional Cox proportional hazard (CoxPH) model was constructed for comparison. The consistency index (C-index), Brier score, and integrated Brier score (IBS) were used to evaluate the model's predictive performance. The accuracy of predicting survival at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years was also assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), calibration curves, and area under the ROC curve (AUC).

Results

Gastric adenocarcinoma patients were randomized into a training group (n = 9923) and a testing group (n = 4254). DeepSurv showed the best performance among the three models (c-index: 0.772, IBS: 0.1421), which was superior to that of the traditional CoxPH model (c-index: 0.755, IBS: 0.1506) and the RSF with 3-year survival prediction model (c-index: 0.766, IBS: 0.1502). The DeepSurv model produced superior accuracy and calibrated survival estimates predicting 1-, 3- 5- and 10-year survival (AUC: 0.825-0.871).

Conclusions

A deep learning algorithm was developed to predict more accurate prognostic information for gastric cancer patients. The DeepSurv model has advantages over the CoxPH and RSF models and performs well in discriminative performance and calibration.

A novel dynamic Bayesian network approach for data mining and survival data analysis

Background

Censorship is the primary challenge in survival modeling, especially in human health studies. The classical methods have been limited by applications like Kaplan–Meier or restricted assumptions like the Cox regression model. On the other hand, Machine learning algorithms commonly rely on the high dimensionality of data and ignore the censorship attribute. In addition, these algorithms are more sophisticated to understand and utilize. We propose a novel approach based on the Bayesian network to address these issues.

Methods

We proposed a two-slice temporal Bayesian network model for the survival data, introducing the survival and censorship status in each observed time as the dynamic states. A score-based algorithm learned the structure of the directed acyclic graph. The likelihood approach conducted parameter learning. We conducted a simulation study to assess the performance of our model in comparison with the Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression. We defined various scenarios according to the sample size, censoring rate, and shapes of survival and censoring distributions across time. Finally, we fit the model on a real-world dataset that includes 760 post gastrectomy surgery due to gastric cancer. The validation of the model was explored using the hold-out technique based on the posterior classification error. Our survival model performance results were compared using the Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazard models.

Results

The simulation study shows the superiority of DBN in bias reduction for many scenarios compared with Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier, especially in the late survival times. In the real-world data, the structure of the dynamic Bayesian network model satisfied the finding from Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression classical approaches. The posterior classification error found from the validation technique did not exceed 0.04, representing that our network predicted the state variables with more than 96% accuracy.

Conclusions

Our proposed dynamic Bayesian network model could be used as a data mining technique in the context of survival data analysis. The advantages of this approach are feature selection ability, straightforward interpretation, handling of high-dimensional data, and few assumptions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-02000-7.

Exfoliated Kidney Cells from Urine for Early Diagnosis and Prognostication of CKD: The Way of the Future?

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health issue, affecting more than 10% of the worldwide population. The current approach for formal diagnosis and prognostication of CKD typically relies on non-invasive serum and urine biomarkers such as serum creatinine and albuminuria. However, histological evidence of tubulointerstitial fibrosis is the 'gold standard' marker of the likelihood of disease progression. The development of novel biomedical technologies to evaluate exfoliated kidney cells from urine for non-invasive diagnosis and prognostication of CKD presents opportunities to avoid kidney biopsy for the purpose of prognostication. Efforts to apply these technologies more widely in clinical practice are encouraged, given their potential as a cost-effective approach, and no risk of post-biopsy complications such as bleeding, pain and hospitalization. The identification of biomarkers in exfoliated kidney cells from urine via western blotting, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), immunofluorescence techniques, measurement of cell and protein-specific messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)/micro-RNA and other techniques have been reported. Recent innovations such as multispectral autofluorescence imaging and single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) have brought additional dimensions to the clinical application of exfoliated kidney cells from urine. In this review, we discuss the current evidence regarding the utility of exfoliated proximal tubule cells (PTC), podocytes, mesangial cells, extracellular vesicles and stem/progenitor cells as surrogate markers for the early diagnosis and prognostication of CKD. Future directions for development within this research area are also identified.

Augmenting the Transplant Team With Artificial Intelligence: Toward Meaningful AI Use in Solid Organ Transplant

Advances in systems immunology, such as new biomarkers, offer the potential for highly personalized immunosuppression regimens that could improve patient outcomes. In the future, integrating all of this information with other patient history data will likely have to rely on artificial intelligence (AI). AI agents can help augment transplant decision making by discovering patterns and making predictions for specific patients that are not covered in the literature or in ways that are impossible for humans to anticipate by integrating vast amounts of data (e.g. trending across numerous biomarkers). Similar to other clinical decision support systems, AI may help overcome human biases or judgment errors. However, AI is not widely utilized in transplant to date. In this rapid review, we survey the methods employed in recent research in transplant-related AI applications and identify concerns related to implementing these tools. We identify three key challenges (bias/accuracy, clinical decision process/AI explainability, AI acceptability criteria) holding back AI in transplant. We also identify steps that can be taken in the near term to help advance meaningful use of AI in transplant (forming a Transplant AI Team at each center, establishing clinical and ethical acceptability criteria, and incorporating AI into the Shared Decision Making Model).

Artificial intelligence with kidney disease: A scoping review with bibliometric analysis, PRISMA-ScR

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI) has had a significant impact on our lives and plays many roles in various fields. By analyzing the past 30 years of AI trends in the field of nephrology, using a bibliography, we wanted to know the areas of interest and future direction of AI in research related to the kidney.

METHODS

Using the Institute for Scientific Information Web of Knowledge database, we searched for articles published from 1990 to 2019 in January 2020 using the keywords AI; deep learning; machine learning; and kidney (or renal). The selected articles were reviewed manually at the points of citation analysis.

RESULTS

From 218 related articles, we selected the top fifty with 1188 citations in total. The most-cited article was cited 84 times and the least-cited one was cited 12 times. These articles were published in 40 journals. Expert Systems with Applications (three articles) and Kidney International (three articles) were the most cited journals. Forty articles were published in the 2010s, and seven articles were published in the 2000s. The top-fifty most cited articles originated from 17 countries; the USA contributed 16 articles, followed by Turkey with four articles. The main topics in the top fifty consisted of tumors (11), acute kidney injury (10), dialysis-related (5), kidney-transplant related (4), nephrotoxicity (4), glomerular disease (4), chronic kidney disease (3), polycystic kidney disease (2), kidney stone (2), kidney image (2), renal pathology (2), and glomerular filtration rate measure (1).

CONCLUSIONS

After 2010, the interest in AI and its achievements increased enormously. To date, AIs have been investigated using data that are relatively easy to access, for example, radiologic images and laboratory results in the fields of tumor and acute kidney injury. In the near future, a deeper and wider range of information, such as genetic and personalized database, will help enrich nephrology fields with AI technology.

Toward Advancing Long-Term Outcomes of Kidney Transplantation with Artificial Intelligence

After decades of pioneering advances and improvements, kidney transplantation is now the renal replacement therapy of choice for most patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Despite this success, the high risk of premature death and frequent occurrence of graft failure remain important clinical and research challenges. The current burst of studies and other innovative initiatives using artificial intelligence (AI) for a wide range of analytical and practical applications in biomedical areas seems to correlate with the same trend observed in publications in the kidney transplantation field, and points toward the potential of such novel approaches to address the aforementioned aim of improving long-term outcomes of kidney transplant recipients (KTR). However, at the same time, this trend underscores now more than ever the old methodological challenges and potential threats that the research and clinical community needs to be aware of and actively look after with regard to AI-driven evidence. The purpose of this narrative mini-review is to explore challenges for obtaining applicable and adequate kidney transplant data for analyses using AI techniques to develop prediction models, and to propose next steps in the field. We make a call to act toward establishing the strong collaborations needed to bring innovative synergies further augmented by AI, which have the potential to impact the long-term care of KTR. We encourage researchers and clinicians to submit their invaluable research, including original clinical and imaging studies, database studies from registries, meta-analyses, and AI research in the kidney transplantation field.

Kidney Transplantation and Diagnostic Imaging: The Early Days and Future Advancements of Transplant Surgery

The first steps for modern organ transplantation were taken by Emerich Ullmann (Vienne, Austria) in 1902, with a dog-to-dog kidney transplant, and ultimate success was achieved by Joseph Murray in 1954, with the Boston twin brothers. In the same time period, the ground-breaking work of Wilhelm C. Röntgen (1895) and Maria Sklodowska-Curie (1903), on X-rays and radioactivity, enabled the introduction of diagnostic imaging. In the years thereafter, kidney transplantation and diagnostic imaging followed a synergistic path for their development, with key discoveries in transplant rejection pathways, immunosuppressive therapies, and the integration of diagnostic imaging in transplant programs. The first image of a transplanted kidney, a urogram with intravenous contrast, was shown to the public in 1956, and the first recommendations for transplantation diagnostic imaging were published in 1958. Transplant surgeons were eager to use innovative diagnostic modalities, with renal scintigraphy in the 1960s, as well as ultrasound and computed tomography in the 1970s. The use of innovative diagnostic modalities has had a great impact on the reduction of post-operative complications in kidney transplantation, making it one of the key factors for successful transplantation. For the new generation of transplant surgeons, the historical alignment between transplant surgery and diagnostic imaging can be a motivator for future innovations.

Promises of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in Nephrology and Transplantation

Kidney diseases form part of the major health burdens experienced all over the world. Kidney diseases are linked to high economic burden, deaths, and morbidity rates. The great importance of collecting a large quantity of health-related data among human cohorts, what scholars refer to as “big data”, has increasingly been identified, with the establishment of a large group of cohorts and the usage of electronic health records (EHRs) in nephrology and transplantation. These data are valuable, and can potentially be utilized by researchers to advance knowledge in the field. Furthermore, progress in big data is stimulating the flourishing of artificial intelligence (AI), which is an excellent tool for handling, and subsequently processing, a great amount of data and may be applied to highlight more information on the effectiveness of medicine in kidney-related complications for the purpose of more precise phenotype and outcome prediction. In this article, we discuss the advances and challenges in big data, the use of EHRs and AI, with great emphasis on the usage of nephrology and transplantation.