Coastal Vulnerability: A Brief Review on Integrated Assessment in Southeast Asia

Examining sea levels forecasting using autoregressive and prophet models

Global climate change in recent years has resulted in significant changes in sea levels at both global and local scales. Various oceanic and climatic factors play direct and indirect roles in influencing sea level changes, such as temperature, ocean heat, and Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This study examined time series analysis models, specifically Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Facebook's prophet, in forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL). Additionally, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was utilized to investigate the influence of selected oceanic and climatic factors contributing to sea level rise, including ocean heat, air temperature, and GHG emissions. Moreover, the models were applied to regional sea level data from the Arabian Gulf, which experienced higher fluctuations compared to GMSL. Results showed the capability of autoregressive models in long-term forecasting, while the Prophet model excelled in capturing trends and patterns in the time series over extended periods of time.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability using integrated fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and geospatial technology for effective coastal management

The vulnerability of coastal regions to climate change is a growing global concern, particularly in Bangladesh, which is vulnerable to flooding and storm surges due to its low-lying coastal areas. In this study, we used the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) method to assess the physical and social vulnerability of the entire coastal areas of Bangladesh, using 10 critical factors to evaluate the coastal vulnerability model (CVM). Our analysis indicates that a significant portion of the coastal regions of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We found that one-third of the study area, encompassing around 13,000 km², was classified as having high or very high coastal vulnerability. Districts in the central delta region, such as Barguna, Bhola, Noakhali, Patuakhali, and Pirojpur, were found to have high to very high physical vulnerability. Meanwhile, the southern parts of the study area were identified as highly socially vulnerable. Our findings also showed that the coastal areas of Patuakhali, Bhola, Barguna, Satkhira, and Bagerhat were particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The coastal vulnerability map we developed using the FAHP method showed satisfactory modeling, with an AUC of 0.875. By addressing the physical and social vulnerability factors identified in our study, policymakers can take proactive steps to ensure the safety and wellbeing of coastal residents in the face of climate change.

Towards Sustainable Aquaculture: A Brief Look into Management Issues

Aquaculture’s role has expanded over the past two decades, with the industry contributing to nearly 50% of the overall fish production. Aquaculture production in Asia and Africa contributes a significant share of total global aquaculture output growth. Aquaculture supports livelihoods and income improvement in a number of states, despite the fact that economic situations have indeed been unfavourable and environmental concerns remain undeniable. To meet the growing demand for fish, aquaculture must expand. However, this expansion will not be sustainable unless management and planning are significantly improved. Local, national, and international management are needed to address the social, economic, and environmental problems. These provide the foundation to proper aquaculture management strategies. In considering the involved ecology, water quality, and genetics, aquaculture can have a detrimental impact on the environmental sustainability. This paper highlights the review on site selection with capacity evaluation, analysis of threats and risks, as well as certification and standards, which are all important considerations in achieving a sustainable aquaculture industry.