Progression-Free Survival Prediction in Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy: Machine Learning vs. Traditional Statistics

Machine learning-derived prognostic signature for progression-free survival in non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Early detection of high-risk nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) recurrence is essential. We created a machine learning-derived prognostic signature (MLDPS) by combining three machine learning (ML) models to predict progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with non-metastatic NPC.

METHODS

A cohort of 653 patients with non-metastatic NPC was divided into a training (n = 457) and validation (n = 196) dataset (7:3 ratio). The study included clinicopathological characteristics, hematologic markers, and MRI findings in three machine learning models-random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-to predict progression-free survival (PFS). A Venn diagram identified the overlapping signatures from the three ML algorithms. Cox proportional hazard analysis determined the MLDPS for PFS.

RESULTS

The RF, XGBoost, and LASSO algorithms identified six consensus factors from the 33 signatures. Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that the MLDPS includes age, lymphocyte count, number of positive lymph nodes, and regional lymph node density. Additionally, MLDPS effectively stratified prognosis, with low-risk individuals showing better PFS than high-risk individuals (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

MLDPS, based on clinicopathological characteristics, hematologic markers, and MRI findings, is crucial for guiding clinical management and personalizing treatments for patients with non-metastatic NPC.

Prognosing post-treatment outcomes of head and neck cancer using structured data and machine learning: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) models in predicting post-treatment survival and disease progression outcomes, including recurrence and metastasis, in head and neck cancer (HNC) using clinicopathological structured data.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across the Medline, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases. The methodological characteristics and performance metrics of studies that developed and validated ML models were assessed. The risk of bias was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

Out of 5,560 unique records, 34 articles were included. For survival outcome, the ML model outperformed the Cox proportional hazards model in time-to-event analyses for HNC, with a concordance index of 0.70-0.79 vs. 0.66-0.76, and for all sub-sites including oral cavity (0.73-0.89 vs. 0.69-0.77) and larynx (0.71-0.85 vs. 0.57-0.74). In binary classification analysis, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of ML models ranged from 0.75-0.97, with an F1-score of 0.65-0.89 for HNC; AUROC of 0.61-0.91 and F1-score of 0.58-0.86 for the oral cavity; and AUROC of 0.76-0.97 and F1-score of 0.63-0.92 for the larynx. Disease-specific survival outcomes showed higher performance than overall survival outcomes, but the performance of ML models did not differ between three- and five-year follow-up durations. For disease progression outcomes, no time-to-event metrics were reported for ML models. For binary classification of the oral cavity, the only evaluated subsite, the AUROC ranged from 0.67 to 0.97, with F1-scores between 0.53 and 0.89.

CONCLUSIONS

ML models have demonstrated considerable potential in predicting post-treatment survival and disease progression, consistently outperforming traditional linear models and their derived nomograms. Future research should incorporate more comprehensive treatment features, emphasize disease progression outcomes, and establish model generalizability through external validations and the use of multicenter datasets.

Machine learning methods for accurately predicting survival and guiding treatment in stage I and II hepatocellular carcinoma

Accurately predicting survival in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is essential for making informed decisions about treatment and prognosis. Herein, we have developed a machine learning (ML) model that can predict patient survival and guide treatment decisions. We obtained patient demographic information, tumor characteristics, and treatment details from the SEER database. To analyze the data, we employed a Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model as well as 3 ML algorithms: neural network multitask logistic regression (N-MLTR), DeepSurv, and random survival forest (RSF). Our evaluation relied on the concordance index (C-index) and Integrated Brier Score (IBS). Additionally, we provided personalized treatment recommendations regarding surgery and chemotherapy choices and validated models' efficacy. A total of 1136 patients with early-stage (I, II) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent liver resection or transplantation were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 3:7. Feature selection was conducted using Cox regression analyses. The ML models (NMLTR: C-index = 0.6793; DeepSurv: C-index = 0.7028; RSF: C-index = 0.6890) showed better discrimination in predicting survival than the standard CoxPH model (C-index = 0.6696). Patients who received recommended treatments had higher survival rates than those who received unrecommended treatments. ML-based surgery treatment recommendations yielded higher hazard ratios (HRs): NMTLR HR = 0.36 (95% CI: 0.25-0.51, P < .001), DeepSurv HR = 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24-0.49, P < .001), and RSF HR = 0.37 (95% CI: 0.26-0.52, P = <.001). Chemotherapy treatment recommendations were associated with significantly improved survival for DeepSurv (HR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.4-0.82, P = .002) and RSF (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.46-0.94, P = .020). The ML survival model has the potential to benefit prognostic evaluation and treatment of HCC. This novel analytical approach could provide reliable information on individual survival and treatment recommendations.

Machine learning explainability in nasopharyngeal cancer survival using LIME and SHAP

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) has a unique histopathology compared with other head and neck cancers. Individual NPC patients may attain different outcomes. This study aims to build a prognostic system by combining a highly accurate machine learning model (ML) model with explainable artificial intelligence to stratify NPC patients into low and high chance of survival groups. Explainability is provided using Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) techniques. A total of 1094 NPC patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for model training and internal validation. We combined five different ML algorithms to form a uniquely stacked algorithm. The predictive performance of the stacked algorithm was compared with a state-of-the-art algorithm-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to stratify the NPC patients into chance of survival groups. We validated our model with temporal validation (n = 547) and geographic external validation (Helsinki University Hospital NPC cohort, n = 60). The developed stacked predictive ML model showed an accuracy of 85.9% while the XGBoost had 84.5% after the training and testing phases. This demonstrated that both XGBoost and the stacked model showed comparable performance. External geographic validation of XGBoost model showed a c-index of 0.74, accuracy of 76.7%, and area under curve of 0.76. The SHAP technique revealed that age of the patient at diagnosis, T-stage, ethnicity, M-stage, marital status, and grade were among the prominent input variables in decreasing order of significance for the overall survival of NPC patients. LIME showed the degree of reliability of the prediction made by the model. In addition, both techniques showed how each feature contributed to the prediction made by the model. LIME and SHAP techniques provided personalized protective and risk factors for each NPC patient and unraveled some novel non-linear relationships between input features and survival chance. The examined ML approach showed the ability to predict the chance of overall survival of NPC patients. This is important for effective treatment planning care and informed clinical decisions. To enhance outcome results, including survival in NPC, ML may aid in planning individualized therapy for this patient population.

Predicting the survival of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms using deep learning: A study based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database

BACKGROUND

The study aims to evaluate the performance of three advanced machine learning algorithms and a traditional Cox proportional hazard (CoxPH) model in predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (PNENs).

METHOD

The clinicopathological dataset obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was randomly assigned to the training set and testing set at a ratio of 7:3. The concordance index (C-index) and integrated Brier score (IBS) were used to compare the predictive performance of the models. The accuracy of the model in predicting the 5-year and 10-year survival rates was compared using the receiver operating characteristic curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve.

RESULTS

This study included 3239 patients with PNENs in total. The DeepSurv model had the highest C-index of 0.7882 in the testing set and training set and the lowest IBS of 0.1278 in the testing set compared with the CoxPH, neural multitask logistic and random survival forest models (C-index = 0.7501, 0.7616, and 0.7612, respectively; IBS = 0.1397, 0.1418, and 0.1432, respectively). Moreover, the DeepSurv model had the highest accuracy in predicting 5- and 10-year OS rates (area under the curve: 0.87 and 0.90). DCA showed that the DeepSurv model had high potential for clinical decisions in 5- and 10-year OS models. Finally, we developed an online application based on the DeepSurv model for clinical use (https://whuh-ml-neuroendocrinetumor-app-predict-oyw5km.streamlit.app/).

CONCLUSIONS

All four models analyzed above can predict the prognosis of PNENs well, among which the DeepSurv model has the best prediction performance.

Survival rate prediction of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients based on MRI and gene expression using a deep neural network

To achieve a better treatment regimen and follow-up assessment design for intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT)-treated nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients, an accurate progression-free survival (PFS) time prediction algorithm is needed. We propose developing a PFS prediction model of NPC patients after IMRT treatment using a deep learning method and comparing that with the traditional texture analysis method. One hundred and fifty-one NPC patients were included in this retrospective study. T1-weighted, proton density and dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) images were acquired. The expression level of five genes (HIF-1α, EGFR, PTEN, Ki-67, and VEGF) and infection of Epstein-Barr (EB) virus were tested. A residual network was trained to predict PFS from MR images. The output as well as patient characteristics were combined using a linear regression model to provide a final PFS prediction. The prediction accuracy was compared with that of the traditional texture analysis method. A regression model combining the deep learning output with HIF-1α expression and Epstein-Barr infection provides the best PFS prediction accuracy (Spearman correlation R²  = 0.53; Harrell's C-index = 0.82; receiver operative curve [ROC] analysis area under the curve [AUC] = 0.88; log-rank test hazard ratio [HR] = 8.45), higher than a regression model combining texture analysis with HIF-1α expression (Spearman correlation R²  = 0.14; Harrell's C-index =0.68; ROC analysis AUC = 0.76; log-rank test HR = 2.85). The deep learning method does not require a manually drawn tumor region of interest. MR image processing using deep learning combined with patient characteristics can provide accurate PFS prediction for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients and does not rely on specific kernels or tumor regions of interest, which is needed for the texture analysis method.

Roundabout Guidance Receptor 1 Is an Emerging Prognostic Biomarker for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Background:

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a malignant tumor originating from the nasopharynx with high morbidity and mortality in Southeast Asia and south of China. Roundabout guidance receptor 1 (ROBO1) can regulate axonogenesis (axon-like protrusion), which may play an important role in migration. However, the roles of ROBO1 in NPC have not been clarified.

Methods:

A comparative analysis employing the NPC transcriptome (GSE12452) and the axonogenesis-related genes (GO: 0050772) was performed. In total, 124 tissue blocks from patients primarily diagnosed as NPC (1993-2002) were examined using immunohistochemical staining. The connections between clinicopathological variables and protein immunoexpression were analyzed by Pearson’s chi-square test. The Kaplan–Meier method with a log-rank test was employed to plot survival curves. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent prognostic biomarker.

Results:

According to transcriptome analysis, we found that ROBO1 is significantly highly expressed in NPC tissues compared with normal tissues. The immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining showed that high expression of ROBO1 was significantly related to primary tumor (T1T2 and T3T4) ( P = .024), nodal metastasis status (N0N1 and N2N3) ( P = .030), stage (I-II and III-IV) ( P = .019), and histological grade (keratinizing, non-keratinizing, and undifferentiated) ( P = .065). Importantly, NPC patients with high ROBO1 expression had poorer disease-specific survival (DSS) ( P = .0001), distal metastasis-free survival (DMeFS) ( P < .0001), and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) ( P = .0001) compared with NPC patients with low ROBO1 expression through the uni-/multivariate and the Kaplan–Meier survival analyses.

Conclusion:

Our report indicates that ROBO1 might be a potential prognostic biomarker for NPC.