The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China

This study utilized the platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, biomod2, to predict and quantitatively analyze the distribution changes of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) based on climate and land-use data. This study evaluated the geographic range changes in future distribution areas and the results indicated that, under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the distribution area of Zelkova schneideriana would be reduced, showing a trend towards migration to higher latitudes and elevations. Particularly, in the more extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario, the contraction of the distribution area was more pronounced, accompanied by more significant migration characteristics. Furthermore, the ecological structure within the distribution area of Zelkova schneideriana also experienced significant changes, with an increasing degree of fragmentation. The variables of Bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range), Bio15 (precipitation seasonality), and elevation exhibited important influences on the distribution of Zelkova schneideriana, with temperature being particularly significant. Changes in land use, especially the conversion of cropland, had a significant impact on the species' habitat. These research findings highlight the distributional pressures faced by Zelkova schneideriana in the future, emphasizing the crucial need for targeted conservation measures to protect this species and similar organisms.

Potential changes in the distribution of Delphinium bolosii and related taxa of the series Fissa from the Iberian Peninsula under future climate change scenarios

A particular threat posed by climate change for biodiversity conservation, one which has scarcely been studied, is the overlap of the potential distribution areas in phylogenetically closely related species. In this study, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to investigate the potential changes in the distribution of Delphinium bolosii and D. fissum subsp. sordidum under future climatic scenarios. These two closely related and endangered endemic species from the Iberian Peninsula do not have complete reproductive barriers between them. The two models selected different predictors with a similar effect in the biological cycle. Both taxa need low winter temperatures to break seed dormancy and sufficient rainfall to complete the flowering and fruiting stages. The current potential distribution areas of both taxa do not currently overlap. However, the results showed that potential changes may take place in the species’ distribution range under future climate scenarios. The models predict a reduction of the potential distribution area of D. bolosii while, conversely, the potential distribution area of D. fissum subsp. sordidum increased. In both cases, the predicted contraction in range is very high, and loss of habitat suitability in some current localities is worrying. Notwithstanding, the models do not predict overlaps of potential areas under climate change scenarios. Our findings can be used to define areas and populations of high priority for conservation or to take action against the impacts of climate change on these endangered species.