Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics in Relation to Shifting Inundation and Fire Regimes: Disentangling Environmental Variability from Land Management Decisions in a Southern African Transboundary Watershed

National-scale spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation fire occurrences using MODIS satellite data

As the risk of climate change increases, robust fire monitoring methods become critical for fire management purposes. National-scale spatiotemporal patterns of the fires and how they relate to vegetation and environmental conditions are not well understood in Zimbabwe. This paper presents a spatially explicit method combining satellite data and spatial statistics in detecting spatiotemporal patterns of fires in Zimbabwe. The Emerging Hot Spot Analysis method was utilized to detect statistically significant spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence between the years 2002 and 2021. Statistical analysis was done to determine the association between the spatiotemporal patterns and some environmental variables such as topography, land cover, land use, ecoregions and precipitation. The highest number of fires occurred in September, coinciding with Zimbabwe's observed fire season. The number of fires significantly varied among seasons, with the hot and dry season (August to October) recording the highest fire counts. Additionally, although June, July and November are not part of the official fire season in Zimbabwe, the fire counts recorded for these months were relatively high. This new information has therefore shown the need for revision of the fire season in Zimbabwe. The northern regions were characterized by persistent, oscillating, diminishing and historical spatiotemporal fire hotspots. Agroecological regions IIa and IIb and the Southern Miombo bushveld ecoregion were the most fire-prone areas. The research findings also revealed new critical information about the spatiotemporal fire patterns in various terrestrial ecoregions, land cover, land use, precipitation and topography and highlighted potential areas for effective fire management strategies.

Using Very-High-Resolution Multispectral Classification to Estimate Savanna Fractional Vegetation Components

Characterizing compositional and structural aspects of vegetation is critical to effectively assessing land function. When priorities are placed on ecological integrity, remotely sensed estimates of fractional vegetation components (FVCs) are useful for measuring landscape-level habitat structure and function. In this study, we address whether FVC estimates, stratified by dominant vegetation type, vary with different classification approaches applied to very-high-resolution small unoccupied aerial system (UAS)-derived imagery. Using Parrot Sequoia imagery, flown on a DJI Mavic Pro micro-quadcopter, we compare pixel- and segment-based random forest classifiers alongside a vegetation height-threshold model for characterizing the FVC in a southern African dryland savanna. Results show differences in agreement between each classification method, with the most disagreement in shrub-dominated sites. When compared to vegetation classes chosen by visual identification, the pixel-based random forest classifier had the highest overall agreement and was the only classifier not to differ significantly from the hand-delineated FVC estimation. However, when separating out woody biomass components of tree and shrub, the vegetation height-threshold performed better than both random-forest approaches. These findings underscore the utility and challenges represented by very-high-resolution multispectral UAS-derived data (~10 cm ground resolution) and their uses to estimate FVC. Semi-automated approaches statistically differ from by-hand estimation in most cases; however, we present insights for approaches that are applicable across varying vegetation types and structural conditions. Importantly, characterization of savanna land function cannot rely only on a “greenness” measure but also requires a structural vegetation component. Underscoring these insights is that the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation structure on the landscape broadly informs land management, from land allocation, wildlife habitat use, natural resource collection, and as an indicator of overall ecosystem function.

Quantifying Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Satellite Remote Sensing: The Trends and Drivers between 1985 and 2014

The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) is a significant resource for five states within East Africa, which faces major land use land cover changes that threaten ecosystem integrity and ecosystem services derived from the basin’s resources. To assess land use land cover changes between 1985 and 2014, and subsequently determine the trends and drivers of these changes, we used a series of Landsat images and field data obtained from the LVB. Landsat image pre-processing and band combinations were done in ENVI 5.1. A supervised classification was applied on 118 Landsat scenes using the maximum likelihood classifier in ENVI 5.1. The overall accuracy of classified images was computed for the 2014 images using 124 reference data points collected through stratified random sampling. Computations of area under various land cover classes were calculated between the 1985 and 2014 images. We also correlated the area from natural vegetation classes to farmlands and settlements (urban areas) to explore relationships between land use land cover conversions among these classes. Based on our land cover classifications, we obtained overall accuracy of 71% and a moderate Kappa statistic of 0.56. Our results indicate that the LVB has undergone drastic changes in land use land cover, mainly driven by human activities that led to the conversion of forests, woodlands, grasslands, and wetlands to either farmlands or settlements. We conclude that information from this work is useful not only for basin-scale assessments and monitoring of land cover changes but also for targeting, prioritizing, and monitoring of small scale, community led efforts to restore degraded and fragmented areas in the basin. Such efforts could mitigate the loss of ecosystem services previously derived from large contiguous land covers which are no longer tenable to restore. We recommend adoption of a basin scale, operational, Earth observation-based, land use change monitoring framework. Such a framework can facilitate rapid and frequent assessments of gains and losses in specific land cover classes and thus focus strategic interventions in areas experiencing major losses, through mitigation and compensatory approaches.

Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Namibia: A District-Based Analysis

Southern Africa is one of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable regions with severe barriers to its sustainable development. We strived to understand here the patterns and drivers of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Namibia, which is the most arid sub-Saharan country with large social inequalities. We used a total of 12 indicators that characterized social, economic and demographic settings of the 14 districts in the country. Further, we evaluated the countrywide pattern of most relevant natural hazards, including wildfires, floods and drought. We identified the main factors driving social vulnerability in the districts, and we evaluated how the socio-economic fitness of populations coincided with the distribution of high-hazard areas. We found that populations with the poorest socio-economic performance were mostly distributed in the country’s northern districts, which are also exposed to the highest frequency and severity of natural hazards, particularly to floods and wildfires. This coincidence of highly sensitive populations with high exposure to hazards renders these populations particularly vulnerable. That the frequency of natural hazards increases with climate change, and implementation of programs enhancing the social resilience is insufficient, underscores the urgency of actions targeted at the priority areas identified herein.

Integrated Landscape Change Analysis of Protected Areas and their Surrounding Landscapes: Application in the Brazilian Cerrado

Remote sensing tools have been long used to monitor landscape dynamics inside and around protected areas. Hereto, scientists have largely relied on land use and land cover (LULC) data to derive indicators for monitoring these dynamics, but these metrics do not capture changes in the state of vegetation surfaces that may compromise the ecological integrity of conservation areas’ landscapes. Here, we introduce a methodology that combines LULC change estimates with three Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-based proxy indicators of vegetation productivity, phenology, and structural change. We illustrate the utility of this methodology through a regional and local analysis of the landscape dynamics in the Cerrado Biome in Brazil in 2001 and 2016. Despite relatively little natural vegetation loss inside core protected areas and their legal buffer zones, the different indicators revealed significant LULC conversions from natural vegetation to farming land, general productivity loss, homogenization of natural forests, significant agricultural expansion, and a general increase in productivity. These results suggest an overall degradation of habitats and intensification of land use in the studied conservation area network, highlighting serious conservation inefficiencies in this region and stressing the importance of integrated landscape change analyses to provide complementary indicators of ecologically-relevant dynamics in these key conservation areas.

Remote Sensing of Human–Environment Interactions in Global Change Research: A Review of Advances, Challenges and Future Directions

The role of remote sensing and human–environment interactions (HEI) research in social and environmental decision-making has steadily increased along with numerous technological and methodological advances in the global environmental change field. Given the growing inter- and trans-disciplinary nature of studies focused on understanding the human dimensions of global change (HDGC), the need for a synchronization of agendas is evident. We conduct a bibliometric assessment and review of the last two decades of peer-reviewed literature to ascertain what the trends and current directions of integrating remote sensing into HEI research have been and discuss emerging themes, challenges, and opportunities. Despite advances in applying remote sensing to understanding ever more complex HEI fields such as land use/land cover change and landscape degradation, agricultural dynamics, urban geography and ecology, natural hazards, water resources, epidemiology, or paleo HEIs, challenges remain in acquiring and leveraging accurately georeferenced social data and establishing transferable protocols for data integration. However, recent advances in micro-satellite, unmanned aerial systems (UASs), and sensor technology are opening new avenues of integration of remotely sensed data into HEI research at scales relevant for decision-making purposes that simultaneously catalyze developments in HDGC research. Emerging or underutilized methodologies and technologies such as thermal sensing, digital soil mapping, citizen science, UASs, cloud computing, mobile mapping, or the use of “humans as sensors” will continue to enhance the relevance of HEI research in achieving sustainable development goals and driving the science of HDGC further.

Operationalizing Vulnerability: Land System Dynamics in a Transfrontier Conservation Area

Understanding how individuals, communities, and populations vary in their vulnerability requires defining and identifying vulnerability with respect to a condition, and then developing robust methods to reliably measure vulnerability. In this study, we illustrate how a conceptual model translated via simulation can guide the real-world implementation of data collection and measurement of a model system. We present a generalizable statistical framework that specifies linkages among interacting social and biophysical components in complex landscapes to examine vulnerability. We use the simulated data to present a case study in which households are vulnerable to conditions of land function, which we define as the provision of goods and services from the surrounding environment. We use an example of a transboundary region of Southern Africa and apply a set of hypothesized, simulated data to illustrate how one might use the framework to assess vulnerability based on empirical data. We define vulnerability as the predisposition of being adversely affected by environmental variation and its impacts on land uses and their outcomes as exposure (E), mediated by sensitivity (S), and mitigated by adaptive capacity (AC). We argue that these are latent, or hidden, characteristics that can be measured through a set of observable indicators. Those indicators and the linkages between latent variables require model specification prior to data collection, critical for applying the type of modeling framework presented. We discuss the strength and directional pathways between land function and vulnerability components, and assess their implications for identifying potential leverage points within the system for the benefit of future policy and management decisions.

Forest Cover and Vegetation Degradation Detection in the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area Using BFAST Monitor

Forest cover and vegetation degradation was monitored across the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) in southern Africa and the performance of three different methods in detecting degradation was assessed using reference data. Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) Monitor was used to identify potential forest cover and vegetation degradation using Landsat Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) time series data. Parametric probability-based magnitude thresholds, non-parametric random forest in conjunction with Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) time series, and the combination of both methods were evaluated for their suitability to detect degradation for six land cover classes ranging from closed canopy forest to open grassland. The performance of degradation detection was largely dependent on tree cover and vegetation density. Satisfactory accuracies were obtained for closed woodland (user’s accuracy 87%, producer’s accuracy 71%) and closed forest (user’s accuracy 92%, producer’s accuracy 90%), with lower accuracies for open canopies. The performance of the three methods was more similar for closed canopies and differed for land cover classes with open canopies. Highest user’s accuracy was achieved when methods were combined, and the best performance for producer’s accuracy was obtained when random forest was used.

Quantifying the Vegetation Health Based on the Resilience in an Arid System

Proper management of natural ecosystems is not possible without the knowledge of the health status of its components. Vegetation, as the main component of the ecosystem, plays an important role in its health. One of the key determinants of vegetation health is its resilience in the face of environmental disorders. This research was conducted in parts of the Namakzar-e Khaf watershed in Northeast of South Khorasan Province with the aim of quantifying the vegetative resilience on behalf of the ecosystem health in response to long-term precipitation changes. First, the annual precipitation standardization was performed during a thirty-year period by the SPI method. Then, the average variation in TNDVI index obtained from the Landsat satellite images was examined and the resilience was tested by calculating the four effective factors (amplitude, malleability, damping and hysteresis). According to the results, the amplitude in the survey period was 6.04% and the vegetation has had different values of damping over the years. The most prominent example of vegetation resilience occurred between 1986 and 1996, with malleability of 0.7 and damping of zero. Vegetation in this period, after the elimination of drought effects (1986), has not only returned to the amount of vegetation of reference year with severe precipitation (1996) but also increased by 0.25%. This increase, as the index of hysteresis, has been presented for the first time in the ecosystem health discussion quantitatively in the present study. A set of quantitative calculations showed that despite reduced annual precipitation and drought events, the vegetation has been able to maintain its resilience, which indicates the health of vegetation in the studied ecosystem.