Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index Applied to Major Vegetation Types of the Western Interior United States

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database (n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Fruticose Lichen Communities at the Edge: Distribution and Diversity in a Desert Sky Island on the Colorado Plateau

Subalpine habitats in sky islands in the Southwestern USA are currently facing large-scale transformations. Lichens have widely been used as bioindicators of environmental change. On the Colorado Plateau, fruticose lichens occur in patchy, disconnected populations, including unique lichen-draped conifer sites in subalpine forests in the La Sal Mountains in southeastern Utah. Here, we document the distribution and fungal diversity within these lichen communities. We find that lichen-draped conifer sites in the La Sal Mountains are restricted to only three known, small areas in Picea englemannii forests above 3000 m above sea level, two of which have recently been impacted by wildfire. We document 30 different species of lichen-forming fungi in these communities, several which represent the first reports from the Colorado Plateau. We also characterize mycobiont haplotype diversity for the fruticose lichens Evernia divaricata, Ramalina sinensis, and multiple Usnea species. We also report a range of diverse fungi associated with these lichens, including genetic clusters representing 22 orders spanning seven classes of Ascomycetes and fewer clusters representing Basidiomycetes. Our results provide a baseline for ongoing monitoring and help to raise awareness of unique lichen communities and other biodiversity in the region.

Increasing taxonomic diversity and spatial resolution clarifies opportunities for protecting US imperiled species

Continental- and regional-scale assessments of gaps in protected area networks typically use relatively coarse range maps for well documented species groups, creating uncertainty about the fate of unexamined biodiversity and providing insufficient guidance for land managers. By building habitat suitability models for a taxonomically diverse group of 2216 imperiled plants and animals, we revealed comprehensive and detailed protection opportunities in the conterminous United States. Summing protection-weighted range-size rarity (PWRSR, the product of the percent of modeled habitat outside of protected areas and the inverse of modeled habitat extent) uncovered novel patterns of biodiversity importance. Concentrations of unprotected imperiled species in places such as the northern Sierra Nevada, central and northern Arizona, the Rocky Mountains of Utah and Colorado, southeastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas, and Florida's Lake Wales Ridge have rarely if ever been featured in continental- and regional-scale analyses. Inclusion of diverse taxa (vertebrates, freshwater mussels, crayfishes, bumble bees, butterflies, skippers, and vascular plants) partially drove these new patterns. When analyses were restricted to groups typically included in previous studies (birds, mammals, and amphibians), up to 53% of imperiled species in other groups were left out. The finer resolution of modeled inputs (990 m) also resulted in a more geographically dispersed pattern. For example, 90% of the human population of the conterminous United States lives within 50 km of modeled habitat for one or more species with high PWRSR scores. Over one-half of the habitat for 818 species occurs within federally lands managed for biodiversity protection; an additional 360 species have over one-half of their modeled habitat on federal multiple use land. Freshwater animals occur in places with poorer landscape condition but with less exposure to climate change than other groups, suggesting that habitat restoration is an important conservation strategy for these species. The results provide fine-scale, taxonomically diverse inputs for local and regional priority-setting and show that although protection efforts are still widely needed on private lands, notable gains can be achieved by increasing protection status on selected federal lands.

Addressing Climate Change Vulnerability in the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems—Results Demonstrated for a Cross-Section of Major Vegetation-Based Ecosystem Types in the United States

The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) is a global standard for ecosystem risk assessment that integrates data and knowledge to document the relative risk status of ecosystem types as critically endangered (CR), endangered (EN), and vulnerable (VU). A series of indicators for each type gauge the probability of range wide “collapse”. Climate change vulnerability can factor into RLE assessments, especially as indicators of climate change severity under the criteria for environmental degradation over the recent and upcoming 50 years. We applied a new framework to assess climate change vulnerability—and thus, severity of climate change degradation—to a cross-section of 33 upland ecosystem types in the United States to demonstrate this input to the RLE. The framework addressed climate exposure and ecosystem resilience. Measures of climate change exposure used climate projections for the mid-21st century compared against a 20th century baseline. Augmenting measures in use for RLE assessment, measures of resilience included several for adaptive capacity, including topoclimate variability, diversity with functional species groups, and vulnerability of any keystone species. All 33 types were listed as VU (n = 22), EN (n = 9), or CR (n = 2) and 51% scored at least one step higher (e.g., LC up to VU) from climate change severity.

Spatiotemporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Ecosystem Vulnerability on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

As the “Third Pole”, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is threatened by environmental changes. Ecosystem vulnerability refers to the sensitivity and resilience of ecosystems to external disturbances. However, there is a lack of relevant studies on the driving factors of ecosystem vulnerability. Therefore, based on spatial principal components analysis and geographic detectors methods, this paper evaluates the ecosystem vulnerability and its driving factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the years 2005 to 2015. The results were as follows: (1) The ecosystem vulnerability index (EVI) of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is mainly heavy and extreme, showing a gradually increasing trend from southeast to northwest. (2) The spatial heterogeneity of the EVI is significant in the southeast and northwest, but not in the southwest and central parts. (3) Analysis of influencing factors shows that environmental factors have more significant effects on EVI than socioeconomic variables, facilitating the proposal of adequate policy implications. More efforts should be devoted to ecological protection and restoration to prevent grassland degradation and desertification in the high-EVI areas in northwest. The government is also urged to improve the ecological compensation mechanisms and balance ecological protection and residents’ development needs in the southeast.

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change

Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.