Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values over 1985–2050 in Response to Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in Abaya-Chamo Basin, Southern Ethiopia

Impacts of Land use Land cover dynamics on Ecosystem services in maze national park and its environs, southwestern Ethiopia

This study investigated the impacts of LULC changes on selected ecosystem services in Maze National Park (MzNP) and its environs in southwestern Ethiopia. Landsat images from 1985, 2005, and 2020 were used to examine land use land cover (LULC) changes. Images were classified using the Random Forest (RF) classifier, and their accuracy was computed in QGIS. Ecosystem service values (ESVs) were then estimated using the benefit transfer method employing Ecosystem Service Valuation Database (ESVD) coefficients. Additionally, socioeconomic survey was conducted to understand the local community's perceptions regarding the dynamics of ecosystem services. The findings revealed a significant increase in croplands (103.7 %) and built-up areas (31.32 %), while riverine forests, water bodies, and wooded grasslands declined. The overall ESVs decreased by 20 %, from 2038.42 million USD in 1985 to 1628.72 million USD in 2020, mainly driven by reductions in riverine forests and wooded grasslands. As for the individual ESVs for the period 1985 to 2020, only food production increased by 0.7 million USD, while water supply, climate regulation, raw materials, and recreation and tourism declined by 180.35, 2.67, 45.72, and 481.62 million USD, respectively. The coefficient of sensitivity ranged from 0.01 to 0.94, <1, revealed that our estimates are relatively robust. Ecosystem services such as grazing, recreation, wild food, and firewood are highly valued by local residents, but they are declining over time due to environmental degradation and restrictions on access to the park. Thus, understanding LULC changes and their impacts on ESVs can help decision-makers design effective protected area management plans and reduce potential conflicts over resource uses. Further investigations are suggested to more accurately quantify ESVs using high resolution satellite imageries and different valuation methods.

Assessing the impact of Land use changes on ecosystem services in the Alledighe rangeland, Ethiopia

Understanding the ecological, social, and economic values of protected areas, as well as assessing the services they provide to both humans and the environment is crucial for informing conservation policies and sustainable land management practices. Using the benefits transfer method, changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) resulting from spatiotemporal land use dynamics were evaluated in the Alledighe Wildlife Reserve (AWR) spanning from 1998 to 2016. Five distinct habitat types, namely grassland, bushland, woodland, riverine forest, and highland forest, were identified across the landscape. The ESVs were estimated using regional and global ESV values. A decline in the extent of grassland, woodland, and riverine forests by 9.9%, 2.4%, and 1.5%, respectively, was observed while bushland and highland forests increased by 10.6% and 3.3%, respectively. The AWR experienced a loss of roughly 145 km2 of grassland habitat. Based on regional and global ESVs, total ESVs in the study area decreased by 28.18% from approximately US$ 180 million to approximately US$ 129 million, and by 40.85% from approximately US$ 496 million to approximately US$ 293 million. As per individual ESV assessment, the total ESV decreased by 41% from around US$ 374.5 million to US$ 264.8 million. Provisioning service declined by 41.6% from US$ 100 million to US$ 70.6 million. Regulating service declined by 42.5% from US$ 242.4 million to US$ 170 million. Supporting service declined by 67% from US$ 5.3 million to US$ 3.2 million, and cultural service decreased by 27.8% from US$ 26.7 million to US$ 20.8 million. The larger ESV change was contributed by the expansion of forestland and bushland across previously grassland-dominated areas. The results of this study could render the value of the rangeland more visible in the decision-making process, as well as provide valuable input for future planning and management interventions of the AWR's pristine rangeland, thereby enhancing ecosystem services and the livelihoods of the surrounding communities.

Effect of forest cover change on ecosystem services in central highlands of Ethiopia: A case of Wof-Washa forest

Forest provides a wide range of ecosystem services and is considered as one of the major sources of livelihood for the local people. In recent years, forest cover in developing countries has been declining due to expansion of agricultural land and increasing human demand for forest products. The declining of forest cover significantly reduces forest ecosystem services, impacting environmental health and community well-being. Although many studies have shown declining of forest cover, the impact of declining forest cover on ecosystem services is not getting much attention in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impact of forest cover change on ecosystem service values in the Wof-Washa forest over the past 47 years. This study combined geospatial techniques and socioeconomic survey methods to assess the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) change on the value of ecosystem services. Ecosystem services were estimated using the benefit transfer method and socioeconomic assessment. A total of 184 households were surveyed with structured and semi-structured questionnaires. The results revealed that the provisioning services increased, while the regulating, supportive, and cultural services decreased. We find that about US$ 2 million were reduced due to LULC change, especially due to forest cover change. As forest cover decreased, the monetary value of ecosystem services and their benefits to local people declined significantly. The results reveal that deforestation is a major challenge that can reduce the value of ecosystem services. The results of this study are vital for developing effective forest conservation strategies before irreversible damage to ecosystem services.

Impact of land use land cover changes on ecosystem service values in the Dire and Legedadi watersheds, central highlands of Ethiopia: Implication for landscape management decision making

Land use land cover change in a landscape is the main driver of degradation in ecosystem goods and services. This study was aimed at analysing the dynamics of the LULC change in the catchments of the water supply reservoirs as well as the impact on the Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) between 1985 and 2022. The benefit transfer method was used to evaluate ecosystem service value (ESV) changes in response to LULC. The watersheds experienced substantial LULC changes. As a result, the natural vegetation, grasslands, and eucalyptus plantations declined dramatically, while settlements and cultivated lands considerably increased. The global and local ESV estimates show a dramatic decline in ESVs between 1985 and 2022. According to global and local ESV estimates, total ESV in the Legedadi watershed has decreased from approximately US$ 65.8 million in 1985 to approximately US$ 11.9 million in 2022 and from approximately US$ 42.7 million in 1985 to approximately US$ 9.66 million in 2022. According to global and local ESV estimates, total ESV in the Dire watershed decreased from approximately US$ 437 thousand in 1985 to approximately US$ 59 thousand in 2022 and from approximately US$ 225 thousand in 1985 to approximately US$ 36 thousand in 2022. The overall decline in ESV demonstrates that the natural environment is deteriorating as a result of replacement of the natural land cover by other economic land uses. Hence, it is highly recommended that implementing sustainable watershed management practices to halt the dramatic loss of natural ecosystems must be a high priority.

Assessing impact of land use change on ecosystem service value in Dasi River Basin of China based on an improved evaluation model

The aim of this study was to provide a new method for dynamic and continuous assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) and reveal the impact of land use change on ESV in Dasi River Basin within Jinan's startup area from replacing old growth drivers with new ones. Based on four remote sensing images from 2002 to 2020, four ecological indicators were extracted, and the ecological environmental quality index (EEQI) was obtained through the approach of principal component analysis (PCA). Then, the traditional ESV evaluation method was modified by using the EEQI, grain yield, the biomass factor of cropland ecosystem, and the consumer price index (CPI). Finally, the impact of land use change on ESV was further analyzed based on the improved evaluation model. The result showed that (1) during 2002-2020, the area of forestland, grassland, and built-up land showed an increasing trend. The area of cropland and bare land showed a decreasing trend, and the water body area showed a slightly decreasing trend. (2) The total ESV_S overall increased by 2.1759 × 10⁷ yuan; the increased ESV_S from air quality regulation, maintain biodiversity, and climate regulation were the main reasons for the increased of total ESV_S, with contribution rates of 53.18%, 12.46%, and 11.29% respectively. (3) The sensitivity of ecosystem services to land use change showed a decreasing trend, and the order of elasticity index of different land use types was cropland > water body > forestland > grassland > bare land. The conversion of cropland and bare land to forestland was the main type of ESVs increase, with contribution rates of 18.35% and 10.13%, respectively. The cropland reclamation and built-up land expansion were the most significant land use changes that lead to the decline of ESV_S, with contribution rates of 20.14% and 19.03% respectively. (4) The ESV showed a significant positive auto-correlation in terms of spatial distribution. The area of high-high region was mainly distributed in water body, forestland, and its surrounding areas. The area of low-low region was mainly distributed in built-up land and wasteland areas where human disturbance is relatively serious. The high-low and low-high regions were affected by landscape transition process and randomly distributed around the low-low and high-high regions, respectively. This study cannot only put forward a new method for the dynamic continuous evaluation of ESV, but also provide a reference for the rational allocation of land resources in the startup area to realize the balanced development of regional environment and economy.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on ecosystem service values in the Afroalpine area of Guna Mountain, Northwest Ethiopia

Ecosystem service changes caused by land use and land cover change (LULCC) is an important indictor and early warning of ecological changes. However, few attempts have been made to evaluate the effects of LULCC on ecosystem services in the Afroalpine highlands of Northwestern Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the impacts of LULCC on ecosystem services values in the afro-alpine area of Guna Mountain, Northwestern Ethiopia. Image classification was carried out using Landsat imageries of 1995, 2008, and 2020 following Random Forest algorithm with Google Earth Engine(GEE) based on filtered sample points. A modified benefit transfer method was used to evaluate ecosystem service value (ESV) changes in response to LULCC. The results revealed that the most notable feature of LULCC in the afro-alpine area of Guna Mountain was the expansion of cropland and built-up areas at the expense of grassland, forest, and shrubland. The overall ESV of the study site was estimated at USD 46.97 × 10⁶ in 1995, USD 36.77 × 10⁶ in 2008, and USD 37.19 × 10⁶ in 2020. The net ESVs of the study site declined by USD 9.78 × 10⁶ between 1995 and 2020. The regulating service values accounted for the greatest share, accounting for over 42% in all periods, followed by provisioning and supporting service values, which accounted for over 29% and 13%, respectively, while cultural services accounted for the smallest amount of the total ESV. The ecosystem service value of food production experienced the highest increase. However, the values of the remaining 16 types of ecosystem services declined with varying degrees of reduction over the study periods. The results of this study is necessary for land-use planners and decision-makers who require site-specific information on impacts of LULCC on ecosystem service.

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Use Change in the Yellow River Basin of Shaanxi, China

The Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi (YRBS) has a relatively fragile ecological environment, with severe soil erosion and a high incidence of natural and geological disasters. In this study, a river basin landscape ecological risk assessment model was constructed using landscape ecology principles to investigate the temporal and spatial evolution, as well as the spatial autocorrelation characteristics of landscape ecological risks in the YRBS over a 20-year period. The main findings from the YRBS were that the land use types changed significantly over the span of 20 years, there was spatial heterogeneity of the landscape pattern, and the ecological risk value was positively correlated. The threat of landscape ecological risks in YRBS is easing, but the pressure on the ecological environment is considerable. This study provides theoretical support administrative policies for future ecological risk assessment and protection, restoration measures, and control in the Yellow River Basin of Shaanxi Province.

Influencing factors of the supply-demand relationships of carbon sequestration and grain provision in China: Does land use matter the most?

The provision of ecosystem services (ESs) such as carbon sequestration and grain provision are critical components to sustainable development. Reaching carbon neutrality generally requires the growing carbon sequestration of forest land, and feeding a growing population needs an expansion of cultivated land. However, limited land resources may lead to a contradiction between the carbon sequestration and grain provision. China has proposed long-term and large-scale land use programs, and exploring whether these land use policies are effective for ES sustainable provision would be instructive for future policy implications. This study integrated multi-source data in the socioecological dimension to determine the extent by which land use and land use change influence the supply-demand mismatches of carbon (carbon sequestration and emission) and grain (grain provision and consumption) in China at the provincial level. The result showed that the total quantity of carbon emissions surpassed carbon sequestration and the grain provision could cover the consumption from 2000 to 2015. Spatially, southeastern coastal provinces had higher grain deficits and northeast provinces had higher carbon deficits. This study further detected the influencing factors of the mismatches between the supply and demand of the two ESs. Excluding land use factors, our results showed that social factors contributed 38% and 47% to the supply-demand mismatches of carbon and grain, respectively, and natural factors contributed 39% and 15%, respectively. During 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015, cropland changes significantly affected grain balance, while forest land changes did not significantly affect carbon balance. These results indicated that cropland protections are vital to food safety, and carbon emission reductions should be the focus for carbon balance. Finally, this study makes policy suggestions for land use and ecosystem management, and a future research framework was proposed to help mitigate ES supply-demand imbalance.

Rural Residents’ Perceptions of Ecosystem Services: A Study from Three Topographic Areas in Shandong Province, China

Rural residents’ perception is an important way of evaluating rural ecosystem services. Different topographies affect the level of ecosystem services, thus affecting residents’ perceived preferences. This study conducted a questionnaire survey of 1176 rural residents in mountainous, hilly, and plain areas of Shandong Province. It analyzed respondents’ satisfaction with ecosystem services and landscape preferences in different topographical areas. The results showed that the perception of ecosystem services was higher than average in all three topographic areas. The perceptions from high to low were cultural services, provisioning services, and regulating services. The perception of ecosystem services was significantly affected by topography, with significant differences between mountainous and plain areas in particular. Rural residents’ perceptions of cultural services varied widely and there were diverse preferences. This study believes that the important concerns in enhancing the perception of ecosystem services among rural residents are to raise villagers’ ecological awareness by meeting their growing spiritual needs and the high sensitivity of older people.

Land Use Change and Ecosystem Health Assessment on Shanghai–Hangzhou Bay, Eastern China

Reasonable quantitative assessment on urban ecosystem health is conducive to the sustainable development of the economy and human society. This paper quantitatively evaluated the impact of land use change on ecosystem services and ecosystem health by building a comprehensive evaluation system (vigor–organization–resilience–ecosystem services), and then analyzed the spatial-temporal pattern, evolution characteristics, and driving factors in the Shanghai–Hangzhou Bay area (SHB) over the 2000–2015 period. The results show that: the area of cropland and forest accounted for more than 65% and was mainly converted into built-up land in the past 15 years. The overall ESV showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Forest accounted for the largest proportion of the total ESV, more than 60% in each year. The ecosystem health value of SBH decreased from 2000 to 2015. At the city scale, the ecosystem health was significantly deteriorated. All cities reached the lowest value by 2015. At the districts/counties scale, the number with the relatively well or well level decreased from 32 in 2000 to 20 in 2015 by 24.64% of the total area. Overall, inland regions of SBH had better ecosystem health situation than coastal areas. The rapid urbanization of population and economy were driving factors for the decline of the ecosystem health. The indicator system of integrating the vigor, organization, resilience, and ecosystem service for ecosystem health assessment is a potential method which could provide a quantitative and comprehensive way for evaluating ecological and environmental effects in the future.

Ecosystem Service Valuation along Landscape Transformation in Central Ethiopia

Land degradation and discontinuation of ecosystem services (ES) are a common phenomenon that causes socio-economic and environmental problems in Ethiopia. However, a dearth of information is known about how ES are changing from the past to the future with regard to land use land cover (LULC) changes. This study aimed at estimating the values of ES based on the past and future LULC changes in central Ethiopia. Maximum likelihood classifier and cellular automata-artificial neuron network (CA-ANN) models that integrate the module for land use change evaluation (MOLUSE) were used to classify and predict LULC. The CA-ANN model learning and validation was employed to predict LULC of 2031 and 2051. Following LULC change detection and prediction, the total ES values were estimated using the benefit transfer method. Results revealed that forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush-woodlands, and water bodies were reduced by 9755 ha (37%), 4092 ha (38.4%), 21,263 ha (81%), 63,161 ha (25.7%), and 905 ha (1%), respectively, between 1986 and 2021. Similarly, forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush lands, and water bodies will experience a decline of 1.5%, 0.5%, 2.6%, 19.6%, and 0.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, cultivated lands, bare-lands, and built-up areas will experience an increase between 1986 and 2051. The estimated total ES values were reduced by US$58.3 and 85.4 million in the period 1986–2021 and 1986–2051. Food production and biological control value increased while 15 other ES decreased throughout the study periods. Proper land use policy with strategic actions, including enforcement laws for natural ecosystems protection, afforestation, ecosystems restoration, and conservation practices, are recommended to be undertaken to enhance multiple ES provision.

Spatio-temporal Differentiation of Coupling Coordination between Ecological Footprint and Ecosystem Service Functions in the Aksu Region, Xinjiang, China

The ecological footprint and ecosystem service functions in the northwest arid region of China have their unique characteristics and are limited by natural resources. The coordination level between the pressure of human activities on the ecosystem and the ecosystem service capacity can be objectively reflected on by exploring the coupling coordination relationship between these two aspects. This work used the ecological footprint and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs models to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the ecological footprint and ecosystem service functions in the Aksu region in Xinjiang. A coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to assess the coupling coordination level and spatial agglomeration characteristics of the regional ecological footprint and ecosystem service functions. The results showed that the ecological footprint of the Aksu region has been high in the northeast and low in the southwest, with noticeable spatial heterogeneity, from 2005 to 2018. Carbon (66.17%) and cropland (26.64%) are the main contributing factors to the regional ecological footprint. The biocapacity is dominated by cropland, built-up land, and forest land. The ecological footprint and biocapacity showed an increasing trend, ranging from an ecological surplus to an ecological deficit, with a continued ecological deficit. The level of ecosystem service functions in the Aksu region was low, with significant spatial variability. The high values were concentrated in the northern part of the region and the Tarim and Hotan River Basins. The coupling coordination level of the ecological footprint and ecosystem service functions in the Aksu area was high in the north and low in the south. The aforementioned coupling coordination level was dominated by the spatial pattern of the ecosystem service functions and had noticeable spatial agglomeration characteristics. The coupling coordination degree of the ecological footprint and water supply function showed an upward trend. By contrast, the coupling coordination degree of the ecological footprint with soil conservation and biodiversity maintenance functions showed a downward trend.

Disturbances Brought about by Human Activities in Relation to the Eco-Environment of the Main Stream of the Tarim River, 2000–2020

The main stream of the Tarim River in China is typical of ecologically sensitive areas that have been heavily disturbed by human activities; as such, the monitoring of the quality of its eco-environment constitutes an important task for researchers. By using GlobeLand30 data and applying the disturbance degree model and revised ecosystem service value (ESV) model, the study presented in this paper undertook a quantitative estimation of the effects of the disturbance impacts of human activities on the eco-environment of this area in the period of 2000 to 2020. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) disturbance index values, which reflect disturbance to the local ecosystem by human activities, increased over the study period. Further, cultivated land experienced the largest increase, which, in turn, brought about the most significant disturbance to the eco-environment. High disturbance index values presented a patchy distribution in the west of the main stream of the Tarim River and formed bands and dots in the east; the area of land characterized by high and moderate disturbance index values increased, with growth areas taking on a scattered distribution of patches, bands, and dots without significant spatial continuity. (2) The total ESV increased, indicating the quality of the eco-environment improved. The increase of cultivated land offset the increase in ESV, which counteracted the effects of ecological governance measures. Areas with high ESV values were mainly located in the western and central parts of the study area, while low values were found in the middle east and east. Areas with higher increases in ESV were mainly located in the western and the western part of the middle reaches and took on a zonal distribution, while areas of decrease followed a scattered distribution, presenting as dots or patches. Using the quantitative analysis methods and high-resolution remote sensing data to evaluate the changes in the eco-environment was considered as the innovation of this study, and the findings are useful in exploring the influence of human activities on ecosystems and evaluating the eco-environment in the minor watershed of an arid area. This piece of quantitative research contributes to the task of monitoring eco-environmental changes using remote sensing techniques in ecologically sensitive areas.

Effects of Long-Term Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Service Values: An Example from the Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are the leading contributors to the decline and loss of ecosystem services in the world. The present study covered the Central Rift Valley lakes basin in Ethiopia, focusing on the valley floor and the East and West escarpments, to analyze changes in LULC and to estimate associated losses in ecosystem service values (ESVs). Covering both upstream and downstream areas in the basin, the study addressed major gaps in existing studies by connecting the sources and sinks of material (e.g., sediment and water) in source-to-lake systems. Additionally, the study facilitated the identification of critical areas for conserving natural resources and reversing the decline of associated ESVs in the Central Rift Valley. A post-classification comparison approach was used to detect LULC changes between 1973 and 2020 using four Landsat images from 1973, 1990, 2005 and 2020. The value transfer valuation method was used to estimate the changes in ESVs due to LULC changes. Among the seven major identified LULC classes, farmlands, settlements, and bare lands showed positive changes, while forestlands, grasslands, shrublands and waterbodies showed negative changes over the last 47 years. The expansion of farmlands, for example, has occurred at the expense of grasslands, forestlands and shrublands. The changes in LULC over a period of 47 years resulted in a total loss of US $62,110.4 × 106 in ESVs. The contributors to the overall loss of ESVs in decreasing order are provisioning services (US $33,795.1 × 106), cultural services (US $28,981.5 × 106) and regulating services (US $652.9 × 106). The results imply that addressing the degradation of land and water resources is crucial to reversing the loss of ecosystem services and achieving the national Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to food and water security (SDGs 2 and 6) and life on land (SDG 15).

Dynamics of urban landscape nexus spatial dependence of ecosystem services in rapid agglomerate cities of Ethiopia

Understanding the dependence of ecosystem services (ESs) on the dynamics of human-semi nature-coupled ecosystems is crucial for urban ecosystem resilience. In the present study, the responses of ESs to land use land cover transitions were explored and compared, selecting Addis Ababa, Adama, Hawassa, and Bahir Dar cities in Ethiopia. The geospatial data and benefit transfer approach was used to estimate the nexus over a three-decade period (1990-2020). Moreover, the bivariate Moran's I and spatial regression models were employed to analyze the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. The findings showed that the built-up increased by 17,341.0 ha (32.2%), 2151.3 ha (19.6%), 2715.2 ha (12.2%), and 2599.7 ha (15.7%) for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively over the investigated periods. Besides, the total ESV weighed by 24.8%, 8.9%, 0.7%, and 3.9% from the US$ 277.9, 55.5, 100.3, and 90.9 million for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively from1990 to 2020. Synergies occurred among local climate regulation and recreation services, and trade-offs existed among other services. A persistent rising trend in the ESVt was found for all cities the upsurge in Addis Ababa being much sturdier than in others. However, the elasticity of ecosystem of land use (EEL) showed that 1% of the LULC transformation was caused by 8.9% changes in ESV. Besides, the results from the global bivariate Moran's I show substantial positive spatial correlations between ESV, and Integrated Land use Dynamic Degree (ILUDD), Land-Use Intensity (LUI), and Land Use Diversity (LUD) (p < 0.001). Spatial lag model and special error model were shown to be fitting more than the Ordinary Least Square in establishing relationships among the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. In contrast, the aggregated ESV is significantly influenced not only by LULC dynamics but also by the spatial spillover effect. Thus, overall findings suggested an antagonistic nexus between the aggregated ESV and ESVf, since 98% of individual ESs were negatively declined as the built-up ecosystem expanded.

Factors of the Ecosystem Service Value in Water Conservation Areas Considering the Natural Environment and Human Activities: A Case Study of Funiu Mountain, China

Water conservation areas play an important role in regional ecological security patterns. The Funiu Mountain water conservation area is located in the densely populated central region of China, where human disturbance to the ecosystem is strong and ecosystem services are facing a very serious situation. Identifying and evaluating the factors leading to changes in the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Funiu Mountain water conservation area can provide scientific guidance for ecological management and sustainable development. Using multi-source data and machine learning methods, our research reveals the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variation in the ESV, constructs a system of ESV influencing factors from the comprehensive perspectives of the natural environment and human activities, and discusses the comprehensive effects of the influencing factors on the Funiu Mountain area from 2000 to 2015. The results are as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2005, the ESV increased 375 million yuan, and from 2005 to 2015, it decreased 154 million yuan. (2) Hydrological regulation, biodiversity maintenance, soil conservation, gas regulation, and climate regulation were the main types of ecosystem services in the Funiu Mountain area. (3) The ESV was influenced by the comprehensive effects of the natural environment and human activities. Population was the most important influencing factor of the ESV; in addition, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and economic factors had important influences on the ESV. (4) With the intensification of human activities, humanistic factors have surpassed the relatively stable natural factors, becoming the main factors of the ESV. With economic development, the effect of human activities on the ESV may be further intensified in the future.

Optimizing the Production-Living-Ecological Space for Reducing the Ecosystem Services Deficit

With rapid urbanization and industrialization, China’s metropolises have undergone a huge shift in land use, which has had a profound impact on the ecological environment. Accordingly, the contradictions between regional production, living, and ecological spaces have intensified. The study of the optimization of production-living-ecological space (PLES) is crucial for the sustainable use of land resources and regional socio-economic development. However, research on the optimization of land patterns based on PLES is still being explored, and a unified technical framework for integrated optimization has yet to be developed. Ecosystem services (ES), as a bridge between people and nature, provide a vehicle for the interlinking of elements of the human-land system coupling. The integration of ES supply and demand into ecosystem assessments can enhance the policy relevance and practical application of the ES concept in land management and is also conducive to achieving ecological security and safeguarding human well-being. In this study, an integrated framework comprising four core steps was developed to optimize the PLES in such a way that all ecosystem services are in surplus as far as possible. It was also applied to a case study in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. A regression analysis between ES and PLES was used to derive equilibrium thresholds for the supply and demand of ES. The ternary phase diagram method was used to determine the direction and magnitude of the optimization of the PLES, and finally, the corresponding optimization recommendations were made at different scales.

Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Urban Ecosystem Service Value in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Urban ecosystem services provide a wide range of services to sustain life, social relation, health, etc., and address most of the challenges, including climate change and environmental pollution. While it is recognized that the urban ecosystem substantially contributes to human well-being in cities, there is less attention to consider the value of urban ecosystem service in urban planning and policymaking. This study analyzed the land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics of city of Dhaka over the past three decades (1990–2020) to evaluate the impact of LULC on ecosystem services value (ESV). The estimation of ESV in relation to LULC has been done using the globally used benefits transfer method (BTM). Findings of the study show that built-up area has increased by 188.35% from 1990 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate is about 6.28%The analysis of ESV shows that it has decreased by 59.55% (85 million USD) from 142.72 million USD in 1990 to 57.72 million USD in 2020 due to the development of the built-up area through conversion of agricultural land, waterbodies, and forest and vegetation land. This study also identified that waterbodies are the greatest contributor to ESV. The result on the elasticity of ESV in relation to LULC implies that about 1% transition in LULC would result in about 0.33% change in total ESV during the study period. We believe that the findings of this study would serve as a reference for the policy maker and urban planner to devise appropriate land use decision to ensure sustainable urban development of Dhaka.

Assessment of the linkages between ecosystem service provision and land use/land cover change in Fincha watershed, North-Western Ethiopia

Fincha watershed is characterized by the presence of large scale government development projects, such as hydroelectric dam and sugarcane plantation. Within this watershed, land use/land cover (LULC) changes and its linkages with ecosystem services were analyzed for a period of more than three decades (1987-2019). The study first assessed LULC dynamics using ArcGIS software with a standard method. After data on LULC change was obtained, the study used a globally developed values coefficients to estimate the Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) of the study watershed. The findings revealed that; cultivated land, water body, settlement and sugar cane plantation increased at a rate of 579.8 ha/yr, 199.7 ha/yr, 141.2 ha/yr and 137.1 ha/yr, respectively, whereas wetland, forest land and bare land reduced by 600 ha/y, 328.7 ha/yr and 60.3 ha/yr, respectively, for the study period (1987-2019) considered in the watershed. The increase in water body and sugar cane plantation is mainly attributed to large scale government development projects, while the increase in settlement and cultivated land is the result of small scale farming in the area. Both subsistence farming practices and large scale government projects compete on forest land and wetland. This has resulted in the decrease of the total NCV (Natural Capital Value) by 13.2%. The total ecosystem service values were dominated by cultivated land, which contributed 42.9% of the values in 2019. Elasticity of ESV change in relation to LULC showed the dominance of cultivated land in the overall values of the natural capital. To optimize the values of natural capital at the watershed, making synergies and tradeoffs between land uses is vital by all concerned stakeholders involved in modification of the land uses.

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

Ecosystem service values are closely related to land use/cover change, however, the values affected by land use/cover change in the context of climate variability remain unclear. Based on the land use/cover data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 in the Yiluo River Basin, we quantitatively analyzed the impacts of historical land use/cover change on the ecosystem service values. Then the future land use simulation model was applied to predict the land use/cover distribution in 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, and the influences on ecosystem service values were analyzed further. We found that the total ecosystem service values in the Yiluo River Basin presented a growth from 9217 million dollars (2000) to 9676 million dollars (2020), which attributed to the increase of forestland and water bodies in recent years. By 2030, the total ecosystem service values continued to present an upward trend, while also showing a difference under three scenarios, this discrepancy was mainly caused by different precipitation conditions. With the introduction of the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin in the new period, climate change may be the main factors affecting the ecological field in the future.

Land use change simulation and spatial analysis of ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang under multi-scenarios

Simulating changes in the value of ecosystem services caused by land use changes in large cities under multiple scenarios is of great significance for cities to formulate land use policies and improve ecosystem services. Take Shijiazhuang, which is in the process of rapid urbanization, as an example. Based on the remote sensing image data and statistical yearbook of 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018 as the basic data to analyze and estimate the 30 years of land use and ecosystem service value changes in Shijiazhuang. According to this, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use change in Shijiazhuang under three scenarios in 2030 and estimate the value of ecosystem services under each scenario, using grid tools to visually express the spatial distribution of ecosystem service values and the degree of agglomeration under three scenarios. The results indicate that the most obvious feature of land use change in Shijiazhuang from 1988 to 2018 was that the farmland area decreased year by year, the built-up expanded rapidly, the farmland area decreased by 86,874.75 hm2 in 30 years, and the built-up increased by 154,711.90 hm2. In 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018, the ecosystem service value of Shijiazhuang was 32.578 billion yuan, 32.799 billion yuan, 29.944 billion yuan, and 31.251 billion yuan respectively. In 2030, under three scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological protection, the value of ecosystem services is 331.111 billion yuan, 33.670 billion yuan, and 33.891 billion yuan in order. The hot spots are mainly concentrated in the northwest and southwest of Shijiazhuang, and cold spots are concentrated in the eastern cities, counties, and districts. Based on changes in land use brought about by urban expansion, simulating the value of ecosystem services under multiple scenarios in the future, providing scientific guidance for building urban ecological networks, and realizing sustainable urban ecological development.

Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China

Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.

Evaluation of Ecological Environment Effect of Villages Land Use and Cover Change: A Case Study of Some Villages in Yudian Town, Guangshui City, Hubei Province

Rapid economic development has a significant negative impact on the rural ecological environment. Evaluating the ecological environmental effect of land use and its change trend at the village scale has important practical significance for maintaining ecological functions and ensuring ecological safety. Taking a typical village in Yudian Town as an example, we applied a land-use ecological environment effect evaluation and the CA-Markov change trend prediction model and constructed an index of ecological environmental effect status. Based on the land use, resource environment, and social economic data from 2014 and 2019, we evaluated the ecological environmental effects of land use in each village, simulated the land-use change in each village in two different scenarios, i.e., the developmental orientation (DO) and ecological orientation (EO), in 2030, and analyzed the corresponding change trend of the land-use effect. The ecological environmental effect of land use showed obvious characteristic differentiation in villages with different development levels. For example, villages with poor natural geographic background conditions and slower economic development had a good level of ecological environmental effect, whereas villages with better resource and environmental endowments but faster economic development had lower levels of ecological environmental effect. Village land-use management methods have had a certain effect on improving ecological security, but the effect has been slow. In conclusion, the research results portray the relationship between rural land use and ecological environmental effects in low hilly areas in northern Hubei at a small scale and have reference value for land resource allocation and spatial pattern optimization in similar regions.

Uncovering Ecosystem Services of Expropriated Land: The Case of Urban Expansion in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, urban expansion happens at high rates and results in land expropriations often at the cost of agriculture and forests. The process of urban expansion does not include assessment of ecosystem services (ES). This has been causing unintended environmental problems. This study aims to uncover ES of three most important land use types (cropland, agroforestry, and grassland) that are threatened by land expropriation for urban expansion in Bahir Dar City. The study applied a participatory approach using community perception and expert judgments (N = 108). Respondents were asked to locate their perceptions on the use of 35 different ES, and then to evaluate the potential of the land use. Respondents were shown to have the ability to differentiate between ES and land use in terms of their potential to deliver ES. The results show that agroforestry is expected to have a high relevant potential to deliver 31% of all ES, but cropland 20% and grassland 14%. Food, fodder, timber, firewood, fresh water, energy, compost, climate regulation, erosion prevention, and water purification and treatment were identified as the ten most important services. It is not only the provisioning services that are being supplied by the land use types which are expropriated for urbanization, but also regulating, supporting and cultural services. To ensure sustainable urban land development, we suggest the consideration of the use of ES and the potential of the land use to supply ES when making land use decisions, including land expropriation for urban expansion.