Monitoring of Urban Landscape Ecology Dynamics of Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), Pakistan, Over Four Decades (1976–2016)

Economic valuation of selected ecosystem services in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), Pakistan

Abstract Payment for ecosystem services (PES) is a mechanism where a consumer is able and ready to pay for the protection of the precise ecosystem service and there must be a provider such as local societies receiving an economic resource, who in return, must have the ability to maintain that ecosystem service. Economic valuation provides basis for payment for ecosystem services. Therefore, objective of this study was to evaluate tourism and carbon stock services of the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), Pakistan. Two forest zones (Chirpine and Scrub) of Islamabad capital territory (ICT) were selected for estimation of carbon stock and their carbon credits and carbon worth, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted for tourism as a payment for ecosystem services. The method for carbon stock assessment was systematic sampling for Chirpine forest whereas random sampling was done for scrub forest. The size of sampling plot was 17.84 m radius, and a total of 93 plots (49 Scrub zone and 44 Chirpine zone) was taken in the study area. The carbon stock of both zones (Chirpine and Scrub zone) is 22556.75 ton/ha (Chirpine 20105.79, Scrub 2450.96) and total carbon dioxide sequestered by both zone is 82557.72 ton/ha (Chirpine 73587.2, Scrub 8970.52), total carbon credits of both zone is 302160.87 (Chirpine 269328.97, Scrub 32831.9) and the carbon worth of both Chirpine and scrub zone is 4532418.92 $ (Chirpine 4039937.09$, Scrub 492481.83$). Similarly, from tourism point of view, in Shakar Parian, 94% tourists were agreed for PES whereas 6% were disagreed for the PES (the 6% tourist were disagreed to contribute for PES, 40% were agreed for Rs.5 contribution and 54% for Rs.10.). moreover, in Lake view Park, 97% tourists were agreed and 3% are disagreed (In Lake View Park 5% tourists were disagreed for the PES contribution whereas 32% were agreed for Rs.5 and 63% were for Rs.10). In Damen e Koh, around 87% tourist were agreed and 13% were disagreed, (24% were agreed for the contribution of Rs.5 and 63% tourists were agreed for the contribution of Rs.10). In Marghazar Zoo, 93% tourists were agreed (22% were agreed for contribution of Rs.5 and 71% tourist were agreed for contribution of Rs.10) and 7% are disagreed for PES whereas 7% tourists were not agreed for contribution. PES may implement to compensate forest and parks manager to ensure better management of the forests and parks. Due to prime location and scenic beauty of the ICT, it has huge potential for implementation of PES mechanism for sustainable forest management and conservation. Therefore, it is recommended that Capital Development Authority (CDA) Islamabad should devise a plan for implementation of PES in forests and parks of ICT for its sustainable management of recreational and forest resources.

Spatiotemporal variation in the vegetation cover of Peshawar Basin in response to climate change

Climate factors like temperature, precipitation, humidity, and sunshine time exert a profound influence on vegetation. The intricate interplay between the two is crucial to understand in the face of changing climate to develop mitigation strategies. In the current exploration, we delve how climate variability (CV) has impacted the vegetation in the Peshawar Basin (PB) using remote sensing data tools. The trend of climatic variability was investigated using the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope statistics. The changing climatic parameters were regressed on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The NDVI was further analyzed for spatiotemporal variability under land surface temperature (LST) influence. Results revealed that among the climate factors, average annual temperature and solar radiation have a significant (p < 0.05) negative impact on vegetation while precipitation and relative humidity significantly (p < 0.05) influence NDVI positively. The overall positive trend shows that vegetation improved between 2001 and 2020 with time, however some years (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017) with low NDVI. NDVI varied in space considerably due to climatic extremes brought on by CV and the urbanization of agricultural land. NDVI regressed on LST showed that there was no or very little vegetation in the grids with high LST. The study concluded that the region is significantly impacted by both CV-related extreme weather events and anthropogenic activities. The vegetation is improving, but it is in danger of being destroyed by deforestation due to CV and human activities that exacerbate the risk of future calamities. To protect vegetation and avoid disasters, there is an immense need for adaptation and mitigation measures to deal with the region's fast-changing environment. The study urges local authorities to create climate-resilient governmental policies and supports regional sustainable development and vegetation restoration.

Monitoring Land-Use Efficiency in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2018

Monitoring of the indicator Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11.3.1 is important for understanding the coordination between land consumption rate (LCR) and population growth rate (PGR). However, the spatiotemporal indicator SDG 11.3.1 changes at the urban agglomeration (UA) level, and the relationship between LCR and PGR in the prefecture-level cities from different UAs remains unclear. In this study, we monitored the spatiotemporal indicator SDG 11.3.1 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and its three major UAs (i.e., Chengdu–Chongqing (CC), the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR), and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD)) for the periods 2000–2010, 2010–2015, and 2015–2018, using the space–time interaction (STI) method and Pearson’s method. Our major findings were as follows: (1) Compared with the world average of 1.28 for LCRPGR (i.e., ratio of LCR to PGR), except for the LCRPGR of the YRD (2000–2018) and CC (2000–2010), the LCRPGR of CC, the MRYR, and the YREB was lower than 1.28 during 2000–2018. (2) The gaps in both population and built-up area between the YREB and the three UAs did not narrow, but widened. (3) Compared with the LCRPGR in China, except for the LCRPGR of the YRD (2000–2018) and CC (2000–2010), the LCRPGR of the YREB increased from 1.21 to 1.23 between 2000–2010 and 2010–2015, and then decreased to 1.16 in 2015–2018, indicating that the relationship between LCR and PGR in the YREB is relatively stable. (4) A significant positive relationship (p < 0.001) was found between LCR and PGR in CC, the MRYR, the YRD, and the YREB. We conclude that the indicator SDG 11.3.1 is a helpful tool for evaluating land-use efficiency caused by the LCR and PGR at the UA level. Our results provide information support for promoting sustainable and coordinative development between LCR and PGR.

Delineating Groundwater Recharge Potential through Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems

Owing to the extensive global dependency on groundwater and associated increasing water demand, the global groundwater level is declining rapidly. In the case of Islamabad, Pakistan, the groundwater level has lowered five times over the past five years due to extensive pumping by various departments and residents to meet the local water requirements. To address this, water reservoirs and sources need to be delineated, and potential recharge zones are highlighted to assess the recharge potential. Therefore, the current study utilizes an integrated approach based on remote sensing (RS) and GIS using the influence factor (IF) technique to delineate potential groundwater recharge zones in Islamabad, Pakistan. Soil map of Pakistan, Landsat 8TM satellite data, digital elevation model (ASTER DEM), and local geological map were used in the study for the preparation of thematic maps of 15 key contributing factors considered in this study. To generate a combined groundwater recharge map, rate and weightage values were assigned to each factor representing their mutual influence and recharge capabilities. To analyze the final combined recharge map, five different assessment analogies were used in the study: poor, low, medium, high, and best. The final recharge potential map for Islamabad classifies 15% (136.8 km2) of the region as the “best” zone for extracting groundwater. Furthermore, high, medium, low, and poor ranks were assigned to 21%, 24%, 27%, and 13% of the region with respective areas of 191.52 km2, 218.88 km2, 246.24 km2, and 118.56 km2. Overall, this research outlines the best to least favorable zones in Islamabad regarding groundwater recharge potentials. This can help the authorities devise mitigation strategies and preserve the natural terrain in the regions with the best groundwater recharge potential. This is aligned with the aims of the interior ministry of Pakistan for constructing small reservoirs and ponds in the existing natural streams and installing recharging wells to maintain the groundwater level in cities. Other countries can expand upon and adapt this study to delineate local groundwater recharge potentials.

Assessing Land Cover Transformation for Urban Environmental Sustainability through Satellite Sensing

Rapid urbanization in Pakistan is triggering regulated and unregulated land cover changes in planned and semiplanned urban areas. The key objective of this study is to assess the spatial–temporal fluctuations in the land use/land cover (LULC) transformations in planned (Islamabad) and semiplanned (Rawalpindi) urban areas over the last forty years (1976–2016). The study focuses on the orientation of LULC modifications and analyzes concomitant impacts on urban environmental sustainability. Therefore, remotely sensed data were retrieved and processed through Google Earth Engine (GEE) by applying supervised classifier algorithms on each of the five chosen Landsat images. The trajectory of LULC changes for each of the four periods 1976–1988, 1988–1995, 1995–2006 and 2006–2016 was critically scrutinized. The observations revealed massive physical expansions and LULC convergences during these timeframes. The proportionate share of built-up surfaces in this contextual setting substantially stretched from 0.83% in 1976 to 23.23% in 2016, while the shares of cropland and shrubberies significantly reduced. The orientation and magnitude of such changes were observed asymmetrically in the adjoining urban settlements. The assessments formulate that availability of land for urban growth, urban planning and regulatory control significantly determines the speed, scale and orientation of urbanization in planned and semiplanned areas. The study substantiates the notions that the efficient use of cost-effective remotely sensed data offers a pragmatic and reliable tool for assessing, evaluating and monitoring urban land resources. The inferences and insights are relevant for urban and regional planners as well as for other scientific communities.

A Synthesis of Spatial Forest Assessment Studies Using Remote Sensing Data and Techniques in Pakistan

This paper synthesizes research studies on spatial forest assessment and mapping using remote sensing data and techniques in Pakistan. The synthesis states that 73 peer-reviewed research articles were published in the past 28 years (1993–2021). Out of all studies, three were conducted in Azad Jammu & Kashmir, one in Balochistan, three in Gilgit-Baltistan, twelve in Islamabad Capital Territory, thirty-one in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, six in Punjab, ten in Sindh, and the remaining seven studies were conducted on national/regional scales. This review discusses the remote sensing classification methods, algorithms, published papers’ citations, limitations, and challenges of forest mapping in Pakistan. The literature review suggested that the supervised image classification method and maximum likelihood classifier were among the most frequently used image classification and classification algorithms. The review also compared studies before and after the 18th constitutional amendment in Pakistan. Very few studies were conducted before this constitutional amendment, while a steep increase was observed afterward. The image classification accuracies of published papers were also assessed on local, regional, and national scales. The spatial forest assessment and mapping in Pakistan were evaluated only once using active remote sensing data (i.e., SAR). Advanced satellite imageries, the latest tools, and techniques need to be incorporated for forest mapping in Pakistan to facilitate forest stakeholders in managing the forests and undertaking national projects like UN’s REDD+ effectively.

Urban Ecosystem Services: New Findings for Landscape Architects, Urban Planners, and Policymakers

More than half of the world’s population lives in urban ecosystems [...]

The Contemporary Economic Costs of Spatial Chaos: Evidence from Poland

This paper is based on the results of an extensive (840-page) report of the Committee on National Spatial Development of the Polish Academy of Sciences, entitled Studies on Spatial Chaos (edited by A. Kowalewski, T, Markowski and P. Śleszyński—Studia KPZK PAN, vol. 182, Warsaw 2018—in Polish). Its aim was to conduct a comprehensive and detailed study on the problem of spatial chaos (spatial disorder), including an estimate of economic costs in Poland. For this purpose, literature was queried (articles and reports, etc.) and special analyses were prepared for this purpose. The total annual costs of spatial chaos were estimated at not less than 20 billion euros per year. The conclusions also proposed solutions and suggestions (for the government and local governments), which may reduce the acute costs of spatial chaos in society and economy.

Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Its Contribution to Urban Heat Island: A Case Study of Islamabad, Pakistan

One of the essential anthropogenic influences on urban climate is land-use/land-cover (LULC) change due to urbanization, which has a direct impact on land surface temperature (LST). However, LULC changes affect LST, and further, urban heat island (UHI) still needs to be investigated. In this study, we estimated changes in LULC from 1993 to 2018, its warming (positive) and cooling (negative) effect, and their contribution to relative LST (RLST) in the city of Islamabad using satellite remote-sensing data. The LULC was classified using a random forest (RF) classifier, and LST was retrieved by a standardized radiative transfer equation (RTE). Our results reveal that the impervious surfaces has increased by 11.9% on the cost of declining barren land, forest land, grass/agriculture land, and water bodies in the last 26 years. LULC conversion contributed warming effects such as forest land, water bodies, and grass/agriculture land transformed into impervious surfaces, inducing a warming contribution of 1.52 °C. In contrast, the replacement of barren land and impervious surfaces by forest land and water bodies may have a cooling contribution of −0.85 °C to RLST. Furthermore, based on the standardized scale (10%) of LULC changes, the conversion of forest land into impervious surfaces contributed 1% compared to back conversion by −0.2%. The positive contribution to UHI due to the transformation of a natural surface to the human-made surface was found higher than the negative (cooler) contribution due to continued anthropogenic activities. The information will be useful for urban managers and decision makers in land-use planning to control the soaring surface temperature for a comfortable living environment and sustainable cities.