Intravenous Amoxicillin Plus Intravenous Gentamicin for Children with Severe Pneumonia in Bangladesh: An Open-Label, Randomized, Non-Inferiority Controlled Trial

Derivation and validation of a clinical prediction model for risk-stratification of children hospitalized with severe pneumonia in Bangladesh

Children with severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffer from high rates of treatment failure despite appropriate World Health Organization (WHO)-directed antibiotic treatment. Developing a clinical prediction rule for treatment failure may allow early identification of high-risk patients and timely intervention to decrease mortality. We used data from two separate studies conducted at the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) to derive and externally validate a clinical prediction rule for treatment failure of children hospitalized with severe pneumonia. The derivation dataset was from a randomized clinical trial conducted from 2018 to 2019, studying children aged 2 to 59 months hospitalized with severe pneumonia as defined by WHO. Treatment failure was defined by the persistence of danger signs at the end of 48 hours of antibiotic treatment or the appearance of any new danger signs within 24 hours of enrollment. We built a random forest model to identify the top predictors. The top six predictors were the presence of grunting, room air saturation, temperature, the presence of lower chest wall indrawing, the presence of respiratory distress, and central cyanosis. Using these six predictors, we created a parsimonious model with a discriminatory performance of 0.691, as measured by area under the receiving operating curve (AUC). We performed external validation using a temporally distinct dataset from a cohort study of 191 similarly aged children with severe acute malnutrition and pneumonia. In external validation, discriminatory performance was maintained with an improved AUC of 0.718. In conclusion, we developed and externally validated a parsimonious six-predictor model using random forest methods to predict treatment failure in young children with severe pneumonia in Bangladesh. These findings can be used to further develop and validate parsimonious and pragmatic prognostic clinical prediction rules for pediatric pneumonia, particularly in LMICs.

Prevalence and outcome of anemia among children hospitalized for pneumonia and their risk of mortality in a developing country

Data are limited on the prevalence and outcome of anemia and its risk on mortality among children under five years of age hospitalized for pneumonia/severe pneumonia. Thus, we conducted a secondary analysis of data extracted from Dhaka Hospital of International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh to address the evidence gap. Among 3468 children fulfilling the study criteria,1712 (49.4%) had anemia. If children aged ≤ 1.0, > 1.0 to 2.0, > 2.0 to < 6.0, and ≥ 6.0 to 59 months had blood hemoglobin (Hb) value of ≤ 10.7 g/dL, ≤ 9.4 g/dL, ≤ 9.5 g/dL, and ≤ 11 g/dl respectively; we considered them anemic. The trend of prevalence of anemia was found to be inversely related to increasing age (Chi-square for linear trend analysis was done to understand the relation of anemia with increasing age, which was = 6.96; p = 0.008). During hospitalization anemic children more often developed respiratory failure (7.2% vs. 4.4%, p < 0.001) and fatal outcome (7.1.0% vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001) than the children who did not have anemia. After adjusting for potential confounders, such as female sex, lack of immunization, abnormal mental status, severe acute malnutrition, dehydration, hypoxemia, severe sepsis, and bacteremia using multivariable logistic regression analysis, anemia was found to be independently associated with fatal outcome (OR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.23–2.89, p = 0.004). Thus, future interventional studies on the early management of anemia may be warranted to understand whether the intervention reduces the morbidity and deaths in such children.

Analysis of serious adverse events in a pediatric community-acquired pneumonia randomized clinical trial in Malawi

Amoxicillin is recommended as first-line antibiotic treatment for community-acquired pneumonia, the leading infectious cause of mortality in children aged less than 5 years. We conducted a double-blind, randomized controlled non-inferiority trial comparing 3- to 5-day amoxicillin treatment for non-severe chest-indrawing pneumonia in HIV-negative children aged 2 to 59 months in Malawi. In a secondary analysis, we assessed the frequency of serious adverse events (SAEs) during the trial to evaluate the safety of treatment with amoxicillin. Enrolled children with non-severe chest-indrawing pneumonia were randomized to either 3- or 5-day amoxicillin and followed for 14 days to track clinical outcomes. In addition to evaluation for treatment failure (primary endpoint, day 6), relapse, and study drug adherence, children were assessed for adverse events, including SAEs, which were managed per local standard clinical practice until resolution or stabilization. Between March 2016 and April 2019, 3000 children were enrolled, with male and younger children (aged less than 24 months) demonstrating more SAEs (10.3% for males vs 8.1% for females, p = 0.04; 10.0% for 2–6 months, 10.8% for 7–11 months, 9.7% for 12–23 months and 5.6% for 24–59 months, p = 0.01). The most common SAEs were progression of or recurrent pneumonia (220 SAEs in 217 children), acute gastroenteritis (14 SAEs in 14 children), and fever (8 SAEs in 8 children); however, there were no significant or substantive differences in the percentage of children with pneumonia-related, acute gastroenteritis, or fever SAEs noted between the 3- versus 5-day amoxicillin treatment groups. In our pediatric community-acquired pneumonia trial evaluating amoxicillin treatment, there were relatively few SAEs overall and very few attributed to amoxicillin. Duration of amoxicillin treatment did not impact the frequency of SAEs. We found male and younger children appear to be more vulnerable to SAEs in our trial; however, our data support previous data demonstrating the safety of amoxicillin use in children with pneumonia.

Clinical trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02678195).