Water Carrying Capacity Evaluation Method Based on Cloud Model Theory and an Evidential Reasoning Approach

Evaluation of water resources security in Anhui Province based on GA-BP model

Water resources security is an important cornerstone of regional sustainable development, but the current evaluation system of water resources security is not scientific, and the measurement of safety level has not been optimized by combining algorithms. In this paper, indicators are selected according to the actual situation in Anhui Province. Firstly, correlation analysis (CA) and principal component analysis (PCA) are used to reduce the dimensionality of indicators, and then, the scientific evaluation is carried out based on genetic algorithm optimized back propagation neural network (GA-BP). This paper improves the generalization ability of the evaluation model and overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional model, which is slow in convergence and easy to fall into local optimality. The results showed that the water resources security level showed an obvious improvement trend from 2006 to 2020 and stabilized at a relatively safe level from 2014 to 2020. The subsystem of water resources environmental security is the least secure, followed by the subsystem of social and economic security, and the security of water resources regulation and response is basically stable at a relatively safe level. The conclusion of this study can provide decision-making basis for the relevant research of government, society, and scientific community.

Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Development and Water Resources-Ecological Management Capacity in China Based on Nighttime Lighting Data

Water resources are important factors limiting social and economic development, so how to ensure the coordination between economic development and water resources-ecological management capacity has become a key issue that needs to be addressed urgently for China's high-quality economic development. This paper used nighttime light data as proxy variables of economic development to calculate the coupling coordination degree between provincial economic development and water resources-ecological management capacity in China from 2004 to 2019 based on the coupling coordination degree model; w constructed a spatial econometric model to explore the spatial correlation and influencing factors between economic development and water resources-ecological management capacity. The results are shown in the following: (1) The overall level of China's economic development is on an upward trend, but the regional development is unbalanced, showing a decreasing spatial pattern distribution of the eastern coastal region-mid-western region-far-western region. (2) The level of water resources-ecological management capacity is low, and the spatial distribution shows a decreasing trend in the far west-central and western-eastern coastal regions. (3) The level of coupling and coordination between economic development and water resources-ecological management capacity rises from a mild imbalance level to a little imbalance level, and the spatial distribution is consistent with the spatial distribution of economic development. (4) The factors influencing the level of coupling and coordination of inter-provincial economic development and water resources-ecological management capacity in China mainly involve the population scale, technological progress, affluence, and foreign direct investment. Each province and city should take into account its own actual situation and develop targeted measures to promote the coordinated development of economic development and the water resources-ecological management capacity.

Cloud probability: A new uncertain model with fuzziness and randomness properties

In order to overcome the weakness of subjectivity of variable and subjectivity of membership function in fuzzy probability the cloud probability model and its algorithm are proposed. Firstly, the representation model of cloud probability is given based on the fusion of cloud model and fuzzy probability. Then the cloud probability algorithm of continuous random variable based on slice method is proposed. Then the relationship between slice number and cloud probability is discussed. And the cloud probability algorithm of discrete random variable is given. Finally, through the application case of e-commerce intelligent decision-making based on cloud probability the effectiveness of the proposed cloud probability algorithm is verified. The research in this paper has good reference significance for dealing with the events represented by uncertain variables.