Markov Chain-Based Stochastic Modelling of HIV-1 Life Cycle in a CD4 T Cell

Stochastic analysis of a COVID-19 model with effects of vaccination and different transition rates: Real data approach

This paper presents a stochastic model for COVID-19 that takes into account factors such as incubation times, vaccine effectiveness, and quarantine periods in the spread of the virus in symptomatically contagious populations. The paper outlines the conditions necessary for the existence and uniqueness of a global solution for the stochastic model. Additionally, the paper employs nonlinear analysis to demonstrate some results on the ergodic aspect of the stochastic model. The model is also simulated and compared to deterministic dynamics. To validate and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed system, the paper compares the results of the infected class with actual cases from Iraq, Bangladesh, and Croatia. Furthermore, the paper visualizes the impact of vaccination rates and transition rates on the dynamics of infected people in the infected class.

Mechanistic modeling of viral particle production

Viral systems such as wild-type viruses, viral vectors, and virus-like particles are essential components of modern biotechnology and medicine. Despite their importance, the commercial-scale production of viral systems remains highly inefficient for multiple reasons. Computational strategies are a promising avenue for improving process development, optimization, and control, but require a mathematical description of the system. This article reviews mechanistic modeling strategies for the production of viral particles, both at the cellular and bioreactor scales. In many cases, techniques and models from adjacent fields such as epidemiology and wild-type viral infection kinetics can be adapted to construct a suitable process model. These process models can then be employed for various purposes such as in-silico testing of novel process operating strategies and/or advanced process control.

Stochastic Modelling of HIV-1 Replication in a CD4 T Cell with an IFN Response

A mathematical model of the human immunodeficiency virus Type 1 (HIV-1) life cycle in CD4 T cells was constructed and calibrated. It describes the activation of the intracellular Type I interferon (IFN-I) response and the IFN-induced suppression of viral replication. The model includes viral replication inhibition by interferon-induced antiviral factors and their inactivation by the viral proteins Vpu and Vif. Both deterministic and stochastic model formulations are presented. The stochastic model was used to predict efficiency of IFN-I-induced suppression of viral replication in different initial conditions for autocrine and paracrine effects. The probability of virion excretion for various MOIs and various amounts of IFN-I was evaluated and the statistical properties of the heterogeneity of HIV-1 and IFN-I production characterised.

Survival with Random Effect

The article focuses on mortality models with a random effect applied in order to evaluate human mortality more precisely. Such models are called frailty or Cox models. The main assertion of the paper shows that each positive random effect transforms the initial hazard rate (or density function) to a new absolutely continuous survival function. In particular, well-known Weibull and Gompertz hazard rates and corresponding survival functions are analyzed with different random effects. These specific models are presented with detailed calculations of hazard rates and corresponding survival functions. Six specific models with a random effect are applied to the same data set. The results indicate that the accuracy of the model depends on the data under consideration.

Mean-Square Strong Stability and Stabilization of Discrete-Time Markov Jump Systems with Multiplicative Noises

In this paper, the mean-square strong stability and stabilization of discrete-time Markov jump systems are studied. Firstly, the definition of mean-square strong stability is given, and the necessary and sufficient conditions for mean-square strong stability are derived. Secondly, several necessary and sufficient conditions for mean-square strong stabilization via a state feedback controller and an output feedback controller are obtained. Furthermore, explicit expressions for the state feedback controller and static output feedback controller are obtained. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate the validity of the above results.

Sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 Life Cycle to IFN Effects and ACE2 Binding Unveiled with a Stochastic Model

Mathematical modelling of infection processes in cells is of fundamental interest. It helps to understand the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in detail and can be useful to define the vulnerability steps targeted by antiviral treatments. We previously developed a deterministic mathematical model of the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle in a single cell. Despite answering many questions, it certainly cannot accurately account for the stochastic nature of an infection process caused by natural fluctuation in reaction kinetics and the small abundance of participating components in a single cell. In the present work, this deterministic model is transformed into a stochastic one based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This model is employed to compute statistical characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle including the probability for a non-degenerate infection process. Varying parameters of the model enables us to unveil the inhibitory effects of IFN and the effects of the ACE2 binding affinity. The simulation results show that the type I IFN response has a very strong effect on inhibition of the total viral progeny whereas the effect of a 10-fold variation of the binding rate to ACE2 turns out to be negligible for the probability of infection and viral production.

Full Information H2 Control of Borel-Measurable Markov Jump Systems with Multiplicative Noises

This paper addresses an H2 optimal control problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic systems with Markov jump parameter and multiplicative noises. The involved Markov jump parameter is a uniform ergodic Markov chain taking values in a Borel-measurable set. In the presence of exogenous white noise disturbance, Gramian characterization is derived for the H2 norm, which quantifies the stationary variance of output response for the considered systems. Moreover, under the condition that full information of the system state is accessible to measurement, an H2 dynamic optimal control problem is shown to be solved by a zero-order stabilizing feedback controller, which can be represented in terms of the stabilizing solution to a set of coupled stochastic algebraic Riccati equations. Finally, an iterative algorithm is provided to get the approximate solution of the obtained Riccati equations, and a numerical example illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.