Clinical Significance of the Neutrophil–Lymphocyte Ratio as an Early Predictive Marker for Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Acute Cholangitis

Clinical Utility of the Tokyo Guidelines 2018 for Acute Cholangitis in the Emergency Department and Comparison with Novel Markers (Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte and Blood Nitrogen Urea-to-Albumin Ratios)

Introduction: The Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG2018) is a scoring system used to recommend the clinical management of AC. However, such a scoring system must incorporate a variety of clinical outcomes of acute cholangitis (AC). In an emergency department (ED)-based setting, where efficiency and practicality are highly desired, clinicians may find the application of various parameters challenging. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (BAR) are relatively common biomarkers used to assess disease severity. This study evaluated the potential value of TG2018 scores measured in an ED to predict a variety of clinical outcomes. Furthermore, the study also compared TG2018 scores with NLR and BAR scores to demonstrate their usefulness. Methods: This retrospective observational study was performed in an ED. In total, 502 patients with AC visited the ED between January 2016 and December 2021. The primary endpoint was to evaluate whether the TG2018 scoring system measured in the ED was a predictor of intensive care, long-term hospital stays (≥14 days), percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) during admission care, and endotracheal intubation (ETI). Results: The analysis included 81 patients requiring intensive care, 111 requiring long-term hospital stays (≥14 days), 49 requiring PTBD during hospitalization, and 14 requiring ETI during hospitalization. For the TG2018 score, the adjusted OR (aOR) using (1) as a reference was 23.169 (95% CI: 9.788-54.844) for (3) compared to (1). The AUC of the TG2018 for the need for intensive care was 0.850 (95% CI: 0.815-0.881) with a cutoff of >2. The AUC for long-term hospital stays did not exceed 0.7 for any of the markers. the AUC for PTBD also did not exceed 0.7 for any of the markers. The AUC for ETI was the highest for BAR at 0.870 (95% CI: 0.837-0.899) with a cutoff value of >5.2. Conclusions: The TG2018 score measured in the ED helps predict various clinical outcomes of AC. Other novel markers such as BAR and NLR are also associated, but their explanatory power is weak.

The Comparison of Clinical Outcomes in Elderly (≥75 Years) and Non-Elderly (<75 Years) Patients with Acute Cholangitis Due to Choledocholithiasis

Background and Objectives: Acute cholangitis may be fatal, particularly in elderly patients. According to the Tokyo Guidelines 2018, those aged ≥75 years are classified as moderate (Grade II) severity. However, it has not been established whether age itself is the deciding factor of poor outcomes. We studied the impact of old age (≥75 years) on the mortality and morbidity of acute cholangitis due to choledocholithiasis. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively examined 260 patients with calculous acute cholangitis who had undergone biliary drainage. Patients were divided into two groups: elderly (≥75 years) and non-elderly (<75 years). We aimed to compare organ dysfunction, in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization, and the severity of acute cholangitis. Results: Of 260 patients, 134 (51.5%) were in the elderly group and 126 (48.5%) were in the non-elderly group. The mean age was 72.3 ± 14.4 years, and 152 (58.5%) were men. The elderly patients showed a higher incidence of shock (12.7% vs. 4.8%, p = 0.029), respiratory dysfunction (7.5% vs. 0%, p = 0.002), and renal dysfunction (8.2% vs. 0.8%, p = 0.006) than the non-elderly patients. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 2.7%, with no significant differences between the elderly and the non-elderly (4.5% vs. 0.8%, p = 0.121). The incidence of severe acute cholangitis was significantly higher in the elderly group (26.9% vs. 9.5%, p < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in the rates of ICU hospitalization (9.7% vs. 4%, p = 0.088) and lengths of hospital stay (LOS) (8.3 d vs. 7.1 d, p = 0.086). Conclusions: No difference was observed in the in-hospital mortality, ICU hospitalization, or LOS between the elderly (≥75 years) and the non-elderly (<75 years) with calculous acute cholangitis. However, severe acute cholangitis was significantly more frequent in elderly patients.

A Nomogram-Based Model for Predicting the Risk of Severe Acute Cholangitis Occurrence

Background

Acute cholangitis is a severe inflammatory disease associated with an infection of the biliary system, which can lead to complications and adverse outcomes. The existing nomogram-based risk assessment methods largely rely on a limited set of clinical features and laboratory indicators, and are mostly constructed using univariable models, which have limitations in predicting the severity. This study aims to develop a nomogram-based model that integrates multiple variables to improve risk prediction for acute cholangitis.

Methods

Data were retrospectively collected from 152 patients with acute cholangitis who attended the People's Hospital of Jiangsu University between January 2019 and March 2022, and were graded as having mild to moderate versus severe cholangitis according to the 2018 Tokyo guidelines. Univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to discern independent risk factors associated with severe acute cholangitis, which were subsequently integrated into a nomogram model. The efficacy of the model was appraised by leveraging Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).

Results

Aspartate to alanine transaminase ratio (Transaminase ratio or TR), Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and D-dimer (DD) levels were independent risk factors for severe acute cholangitis. A nomogram model was constructed based on these 4 risk factors. ROC and calibration curves were well differentiated and calibrated. DCA had a high net gain in the range of 7% to 83%. The above model was tested internally. According to the nomogram model when patients using characteristic curve critical values were divided into a low-risk group and a high-risk group, the incidence in the high-risk group was significantly higher than in the low-risk group.

Conclusion

This nomogram model may provide clinicians with an effective tool to predict the potential risk of severe acute cholangitis in patients and guide informed intervention measures and treatment decisions.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.

Methods

The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P <0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837-0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.

Neutrophil-lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Clinical Response to Percutaneous Transhepatic Biliary Drainage in Acute Cholangitis

Background

Predicting response to biliary drainage is critical to stratify patients with acute cholangitis. Total leucocyte count (TLC) is one of the criteria for predicting the severity of cholangitis and is routinely performed. We aim to investigate the performance of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting clinical response to percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) in acute cholangitis.

Patients and methods

This retrospective study comprised consecutive patients with acute cholangitis who underwent PTBD and had serial (baseline, day 1, and day 3) TLC and NLR measurements. Technical success, complications of PTBD, and clinical response to PTBD (based on multiple outcomes) were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify factors significantly associated with clinical response to PTBD. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve of serial TLC and NLR for predicting clinical response to PTBD were calculated.

Results

Forty-five patients (mean age 51.5 years, range 22-84) met the inclusion criteria. PTBD was technically successful in all the patients. Eleven (24.4%) minor complications were recorded. Clinical response to PTBD was recorded in 22 (48.9%) patients. At univariate analysis, the clinical response to PTBD was significantly associated with baseline TLC (P = 0.035), baseline NLR (P = 0.028), and NLR at day 1 (P=0.011). There was no association with age, the presence of comorbidities, prior endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, admission to PTBD interval, diagnosis (benign vs. malignant), severity of cholangitis, organ failure at baseline, and blood culture positivity. At multivariate analysis, NLR-1 independently predicted the clinical response. Area under the curve of NLR at day 1 for predicting clinical response was 0.901. NLR-1 cut-off value of 3.95 was associated with sensitivity and specificity of 87% and 78%, respectively.

Conclusion

TLC and NLR are simple tests that can predict clinical response to PTBD in acute cholangitis. NLR-1 cut-off value of 3.95 can be used in clinical practice to predict response.

Associations of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio, Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Monocyte-to-Lymphocyte Ratio with Osteoporosis and Incident Vertebral Fracture in Postmenopausal Women with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Objectives: We investigated whether nutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphoycte ratio (PLR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) are associated with the presence of osteoporosis (OP) and vertebral fractures in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 413 postmenopausal patients with RA and 200 healthy controls who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) between January 2005 and December 2017. DEXA examination data were defined as the index date, and all laboratory values were measured within one month from the index date. OP was defined as a T-score < −2.5, and incident vertebral fractures were defined as the first occurrence of non-traumatic fractures after the index date. NLR, PLR, and MLR measures were dichotomized by a median split (low vs. high). Results: The median NLR, PLR, and MLR in RA patients were significantly higher than those in controls. The frequencies of OP of the lumbar spine, hip, and either site in postmenopausal patients with RA were 24.7%, 15.5%, and 32%, respectively, and were significantly higher than those in controls. After adjusting for confounding factors, a high baseline NLR was significantly associated with OP at either site (OR = 1.61, p = 0.041). In addition, high baseline NLR (OR = 2.11, p = 0.025) and PLR (OR = 2.3, p = 0.011) were related with the presence OP at hip. During the follow-up period, 53 (12.8%) patients with RA developed vertebral fractures incidentally. In multivariable Cox regression models, a high baseline NLR (HR = 4.72, p < 0.001), PLR (HR = 1.96, p = 0.024), and MLR (HR = 2.64, p = 0.002) were independently associated with a higher risk of incidental vertebral fractures. Conclusions: Our data suggest that NLR, PLR, and MLR can be used as potential markers of systemic bone loss among individuals with RA.