Concentration Prediction of Polymer Insulation Aging Indicator-Alcohols in Oil Based on Genetic Algorithm-Optimized Support Vector Machines

Application of back propagation neural network in complex diagnostics and forecasting loss of life of cellulose paper insulation in oil-immersed transformers

Oil-immersed transformers are expensive equipment in the electrical system, and their failure would lead to widespread blackouts and catastrophic economic losses. In this work, an elaborate diagnostic approach is proposed to evaluate twenty-six different transformers in-service to determine their operative status as per the IEC 60599:2022 standard and CIGRE brochure. The approach integrates dissolved gas analysis (DGA), transformer oil integrity analysis, visual inspections, and two Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) algorithms to predict the loss of life (LOL) of the transformers through condition monitoring of the cellulose paper. The first BPNN algorithm proposed is based on forecasting the degree of polymerization (DP) using 2-Furaldehyde (2FAL) concentration measured from oil samples using DGA, and the second BPNN algorithm proposed is based on forecasting transformer LOL using the 2FAL and DP data obtained from the first BPNN algorithm. The first algorithm produced a correlation coefficient of 0.970 when the DP was predicted using the 2FAL measured in oil and the second algorithm produced a correlation coefficient of 0.999 when the LOL was predicted using the 2FAL and DP output data obtained from the first algorithm. The results show that the BPNN can be utilized to forecast the DP and LOL of transformers in-service. Lastly, the results are used for hazard analysis and lifespan prediction based on the health index (HI) for each transformer to predict the expected years of service.

Effective Electrical Properties and Fault Diagnosis of Insulating Oil Using the 2D Cell Method and NSGA-II Genetic Algorithm

In this paper, an experimental analysis of the quality of electrical insulating oils is performed using a combination of dielectric loss and capacitance measurement tests. The transformer oil corresponds to a fresh oil sample. The paper follows the ASTM D 924-15 standard (standard test method for dissipation factor and relative permittivity of electrical insulating liquids). Effective electrical parameters, including the tan δ of the oil, were obtained in this non-destructive test. Subsequently, a numerical method is proposed to accurately determine the effective electrical resistivity, σ, and effective electrical permittivity, ε, of an insulating mineral oil from the data obtained in the experimental analysis. These two parameters are not obtained in the ASTM standard. We used the cell method and the multi-objective non-dominated sorting in genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) for this purpose. In this paper, a new numerical tool to accurately obtain the effective electrical parameters of transformer insulating oils is therefore provided for fault detection and diagnosis. The results show improved accuracy compared to the existing analytical equations. In addition, as the experimental data are collected in a high-voltage domain, wireless sensors are used to measure, transmit, and monitor the electrical and thermal quantities.