Robust Process Design in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing under Batch-to-Batch Variation

The Role of CMC Statisticians: Co-Practitioners of the Scientific Method

Chemistry, manufacturing, and control (CMC) statisticians play a key role in the development and lifecycle management of pharmaceutical and biological products, working with their non-statistician partners to manage product quality. Information used to make quality decisions comes from studies, where success is facilitated through adherence to the scientific method. This is carried out in four steps: (1) an objective, (2) design, (3) conduct, and (4) analysis. Careful consideration of each step helps to ensure that a study conclusion and associated decision is correct. This can be a development decision related to the validity of an assay or a quality decision like conformance to specifications. Importantly, all decisions are made with risk. Conventional statistical risks such as Type 1 and Type 2 errors can be coupled with associated impacts to manage patient value as well as development and commercial costs. The CMC statistician brings focus on managing risk across the steps of the scientific method, leading to optimal product development and robust supply of life saving drugs and biologicals.

Mathematical Modeling and Robust Multi-Objective Optimization of the Two-Dimensional Benzene Alkylation Reactor with Dry Gas

The benzene alkylation reactor using the dry gas is the most significant equipment in the ethylbenzene manufacturing process. In this paper, a two-dimensional homogeneous model is developed for steady state simulation of the industrial multi-stage catalytic reactor for ethylbenzene. The model validation on a practical benzene alkylation reactor shows the model is accurate and can calculate the hot spot temperatures. The composition of dry gas from upstream process varies with the operating conditions, which can cause unexpected hot spots in the reactor and catalyst deactivation. Considering the uncertainty in dry gas composition, a robust multi-objective optimization framework is proposed: first, the back-off in constraints is introduced to the multi-objective optimization problem to hedge against the worst case; then the optimal operating point can be selected using the multi-criteria decision-making. The reactor optimization objectives are maximizing selectivity of ethylene and conversion of ethylbenzene, and the distribution ratios of dry gas are defined as decision variables. Results of robust multi-objective optimization show the selectivity and conversion at the optimal operating point are 90.88% (decreased by 0.24% compared to the practical condition) and 99.94% (increased by 0.72%). Importantly, the proportion of violations of the hot spot constraints decreases from 13.7% of the traditional method to 3.8% by applying the proposed robust multi-objective optimization method.

Designing Robust Biotechnological Processes Regarding Variabilities Using Multi-Objective Optimization Applied to a Biopharmaceutical Seed Train Design

Development and optimization of biopharmaceutical production processes with cell cultures is cost- and time-consuming and often performed rather empirically. Efficient optimization of multiple objectives such as process time, viable cell density, number of operating steps & cultivation scales, required medium, amount of product as well as product quality depicts a promising approach. This contribution presents a workflow which couples uncertainty-based upstream simulation and Bayes optimization using Gaussian processes. Its application is demonstrated in a simulation case study for a relevant industrial task in process development, the design of a robust cell culture expansion process (seed train), meaning that despite uncertainties and variabilities concerning cell growth, low variations of viable cell density during the seed train are obtained. Compared to a non-optimized reference seed train, the optimized process showed much lower deviation rates regarding viable cell densities (<10% instead of 41.7%) using five or four shake flask scales and seed train duration could be reduced by 56 h from 576 h to 520 h. Overall, it is shown that applying Bayes optimization allows for optimization of a multi-objective optimization function with several optimizable input variables and under a considerable amount of constraints with a low computational effort. This approach provides the potential to be used in the form of a decision tool, e.g., for the choice of an optimal and robust seed train design or for further optimization tasks within process development.

Considerations of the Impacts of Cell-Specific Growth and Production Rate on Clone Selection—A Simulation Study

For the manufacturing of complex biopharmaceuticals using bioreactors with cultivated mammalian cells, high product concentration is an important objective. The phenotype of the cells in a reactor plays an important role. Are clonal cell populations showing high cell-specific growth rates more favorable than cell lines with higher cell-specific productivities or vice versa? Five clonal Chinese hamster ovary cell populations were analyzed based on the data of a 3-month-stability study. We adapted a mechanistic cell culture model to the experimental data of one such clonally derived cell population. Uncertainties and prior knowledge concerning model parameters were considered using Bayesian parameter estimations. This model was used then to define an inoculum train protocol. Based on this, we subsequently simulated the impacts of differences in growth rates (±10%) and production rates (±10% and ±50%) on the overall cultivation time, including making the inoculum train cultures; the final production phase, the volumetric titer in that bioreactor and the ratio of both, defined as overall process productivity. We showed thus unequivocally that growth rates have a higher impact (up to three times) on overall process productivity and for product output per year, whereas cells with higher productivity can potentially generate higher product concentrations in the production vessel.

Hybrid Process Models in Electrochemical Syntheses under Deep Uncertainty

Chemical process engineering and machine learning are merging rapidly, and hybrid process models have shown promising results in process analysis and process design. However, uncertainties in first-principles process models have an adverse effect on extrapolations and inferences based on hybrid process models. Parameter sensitivities are an essential tool to understand better the underlying uncertainty propagation and hybrid system identification challenges. Still, standard parameter sensitivity concepts may fail to address comprehensive parameter uncertainty problems, i.e., deep uncertainty with aleatoric and epistemic contributions. This work shows a highly effective and reproducible sampling strategy to calculate simulation uncertainties and global parameter sensitivities for hybrid process models under deep uncertainty. We demonstrate the workflow with two electrochemical synthesis simulation studies, including the synthesis of furfuryl alcohol and 4-aminophenol. Compared with Monte Carlo reference simulations, the CPU-time was significantly reduced. The general findings of the hybrid model sensitivity studies under deep uncertainty are twofold. First, epistemic uncertainty has a significant effect on uncertainty analysis. Second, the predicted parameter sensitivities of the hybrid process models add value to the interpretation and analysis of the hybrid models themselves but are not suitable for predicting the real process/full first-principles process model’s sensitivities.

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing and Distribution

The rise of personalised and highly complex drug product profiles necessitates significant advancements in pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution. Efforts to develop more agile, responsive, and reproducible manufacturing processes are being combined with the application of digital tools for seamless communication between process units, plants, and distribution nodes. In this paper, we discuss how novel therapeutics of high-specificity and sensitive nature are reshaping well-established paradigms in the pharmaceutical industry. We present an overview of recent research directions in pharmaceutical manufacturing and supply chain design and operations. We discuss topical challenges and opportunities related to small molecules and biologics, dividing the latter into patient- and non-specific. Lastly, we present the role of process systems engineering in generating decision-making tools to assist manufacturing and distribution strategies in the pharmaceutical sector and ultimately embrace the benefits of digitalised operations.

Dynamic parameter estimation and prediction over consecutive scales, based on moving horizon estimation: applied to an industrial cell culture seed train

Bioprocess modeling has become a useful tool for prediction of the process future with the aim to deduce operating decisions (e.g. transfer or feeds). Due to variabilities, which often occur between and within batches, updating (re-estimation) of model parameters is required at certain time intervals (dynamic parameter estimation) to obtain reliable predictions. This can be challenging in the presence of low sampling frequencies (e.g. every 24 h), different consecutive scales and large measurement errors, as in the case of cell culture seed trains. This contribution presents an iterative learning workflow which generates and incorporates knowledge concerning cell growth during the process by using a moving horizon estimation (MHE) approach for updating of model parameters. This estimation technique is compared to a classical weighted least squares estimation (WLSE) approach in the context of model updating over three consecutive cultivation scales (40–2160 L) of an industrial cell culture seed train. Both techniques were investigated regarding robustness concerning the aforementioned challenges and the required amount of experimental data (estimation horizon). It is shown how the proposed MHE can deal with the aforementioned difficulties by the integration of prior knowledge, even if only data at two sampling points are available, outperforming the classical WLSE approach. This workflow allows to adequately integrate current process behavior into the model and can therefore be a suitable component of a digital twin.

Working within the Design Space: Do Our Static Process Characterization Methods Suffice?

The Process Analytical Technology initiative and Quality by Design paradigm have led to changes in the guidelines and views of how to develop drug manufacturing processes. On this occasion the concept of the design space, which describes the impact of process parameters and material attributes on the attributes of the product, was introduced in the ICH Q8 guideline. The way the design space is defined and can be presented for regulatory approval seems to be left to the applicants, among who at least a consensus on how to characterize the design space seems to have evolved. The large majority of design spaces described in publications seem to follow a "static" statistical experimentation and modeling approach. Given that temporal deviations in the process parameters (i.e., moving within the design space) are of a dynamic nature, static approaches might not suffice for the consideration of the implications of variations in the values of the process parameters. In this paper, different forms of design space representations are discussed and the current consensus is challenged, which in turn, establishes the need for a dynamic representation and characterization of the design space. Subsequently, selected approaches for a dynamic representation, characterization and validation which are proposed in the literature are discussed, also showcasing the opportunity to integrate the activities of process characterization, process monitoring and process control strategy development.

Robust Model Selection: Flatness-Based Optimal Experimental Design for a Biocatalytic Reaction

Considering the competitive and strongly regulated pharmaceutical industry, mathematical modeling and process systems engineering might be useful tools for implementing quality by design (QbD) and quality by control (QbC) strategies for low-cost but high-quality drugs. However, a crucial task in modeling (bio)pharmaceutical manufacturing processes is the reliable identification of model candidates from a set of various model hypotheses. To identify the best experimental design suitable for a reliable model selection and system identification is challenging for nonlinear (bio)pharmaceutical process models in general. This paper is the first to exploit differential flatness for model selection problems under uncertainty, and thus translates the model selection problem to advanced concepts of systems theory and controllability aspects, respectively. Here, the optimal controls for improved model selection trajectories are expressed analytically with low computational costs. We further demonstrate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the differential flatness-based method and provide an effective robustification strategy with the point estimate method for uncertainty quantification. In a simulation study, we consider a biocatalytic reaction step simulating the carboligation of aldehydes, where we successfully derive optimal controls for improved model selection trajectories under uncertainty.

A Hybrid Data-Based and Model-Based Approach to Process Monitoring and Control in Sheet Metal Forming

The ability to predict and control the outcome of the sheet metal forming process demands holistic knowledge of the product/process parameter influences and their contribution in shaping the output product quality. Recent improvements in the ability to harvest in-line production data and the increased capability to understand complex process behaviour through computer simulations open up the possibility for new approaches to monitor and control production process performance and output product quality. This research presents an overview of the common process monitoring and control approaches while highlighting their limitations in handling the dynamics of the sheet metal forming process. The current paper envisions the need for a collaborative monitoring and control system for enhancing production process performance. Such a system must incorporate comprehensive knowledge regarding process behaviour and parameter influences in addition to the current-system-state derived using in-line production data to function effectively. Accordingly, a framework for monitoring and control within automotive sheet metal forming is proposed. The framework addresses the current limitations through the use of real-time production data and reduced process models. Lastly, the significance of the presented framework in transitioning to the digital manufacturing paradigm is reflected upon.

Model-Based Tools for Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Processes

Active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are highly valuable, highly sensitive products resulting from production processes with strict quality control specifications and regulations that are required for the safety of patients [...]