Improvement in Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation Using HRV/MSG Data

3D-VAR Data Assimilation of SEVIRI Radiances for the Prediction of Solar Irradiance in Italy Using WRF Solar Mesoscale Model—Preliminary Results

Solar power generation is highly fluctuating due to its dependence on atmospheric conditions. The integration of this variable resource into the energy supply system requires reliable predictions of the expected power production as a basis for management and operation strategies. This is one of the goals of the Solar Cloud project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development (MISE)—to provide detailed forecasts of solar irradiance variables to operators and organizations operating in the solar energy industry. The Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis of the National Research Council (IMAA-CNR), participating to the project, implemented an operational chain that provides forecasts of all the solar irradiance variables at high temporal and horizontal resolution using the numerical weather prediction Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Solar version 3.8.1 released by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in August 2016. With the aim of improving the forecast of solar irradiance, the three-dimensional (3D-Var) data assimilation was tested to assimilate radiances from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite into WRF Solar. To quantify the impact, the model output is compared against observational data. Hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is compared with ground-based observations from Regional Agency for the Protection of the Environment (ARPA) and with MSG Shortwave Solar Irradiance estimations, while WRF Solar cloud coverage is compared with Cloud Mask by MSG. A preliminary test has been performed in clear sky conditions to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the diurnal cycle of the solar irradiance. The statistical scores for clear sky conditions show a positive performance of the model with values comparable to the instrument uncertainty and a correlation of 0.995. For cloudy sky, the solar irradiance and the cloud cover are better simulated when the SEVIRI radiances are assimilated, especially in the short range of the simulation. For the cloud cover, the Mean Bias Error one hour after the assimilation time is reduced from 41.62 to 20.29 W/m2 when the assimilation is activated. Although only two case studies are considered here, the results indicate that the assimilation of SEVIRI radiance improves the performance of WRF Solar especially in the first 3 hour forecast.

Estimation of Surface Downward Shortwave Radiation over China from Himawari-8 AHI Data Based on Random Forest

Downward shortwave radiation (RS) drives many processes related to atmosphere–surface interactions and has great influence on the earth’s climate system. However, ground-measured RS is still insufficient to represent the land surface, so it is still critical to generate high accuracy and spatially continuous RS data. This study tries to apply the random forest (RF) method to estimate the RS from the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) data from February to May 2016 with a two-km spatial resolution and a one-day temporal resolution. The ground-measured RS at 86 stations of the Climate Data Center of the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CDC/CMA) are collected to evaluate the estimated RS data from the RF method. The evaluation results indicate that the RF method is capable of estimating the RS well at both the daily and monthly time scales. For the daily time scale, the evaluation results based on validation data show an overall R value of 0.92, a root mean square error (RMSE) value of 35.38 (18.40%) Wm−2, and a mean bias error (MBE) value of 0.01 (0.01%) Wm−2. For the estimated monthly RS, the overall R was 0.99, the RMSE was 7.74 (4.09%) Wm−2, and the MBE was 0.03 (0.02%) Wm−2 at the selected stations. The comparison between the estimated RS data over China and the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) RS dataset was also conducted in this study. The comparison results indicate that the RS estimates from the RF method have comparable accuracy with the CERES-EBAF RS data over China but provide higher spatial and temporal resolution.

Satellite Retrieval of Downwelling Shortwave Surface Flux and Diffuse Fraction under All Sky Conditions in the Framework of the LSA SAF Program (Part 2: Evaluation)

High frequency knowledge of the spatio-temporal distribution of the downwelling surface shortwave flux (DSSF) and its diffuse fraction (fd) at the surface is nowadays essential for understanding climate processes at the surface–atmosphere interface, plant photosynthesis and carbon cycle, and for the solar energy sector. The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis operationally delivers estimation of the MDSSFTD (MSG Downwelling Surface Short-wave radiation Fluxes—Total and Diffuse fraction) product with an operational status since the year 2019. The method for retrieval was presented in a companion paper. Part 2 now focuses on the evaluation of the MDSSFTD algorithm and presents a comparison of the corresponding outputs, i.e., total DSSF and diffuse fraction (fd) components, against in situ measurements acquired at four Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations over a seven-month period. The validation is performed on an instantaneous basis. We show that the satellite estimates of DSSF and fd meet the target requirements defined by the user community for all-sky (clear and cloudy) conditions. For DSSF, the requirements are 20 Wm−2 for DSSF < 200 Wm−2, and 10% for DSSF ≥ 200 Wm−2. The mean bias error (MBE) and relative mean bias error (rMBE) compared to the ground measurements are 3.618 Wm−2 and 0.252%, respectively. For fd, the requirements are 0.1 for fd < 0.5, and 20% for fd ≥ 0.5. The MBE and rMBE compared to the ground measurements are −0.044% and −17.699%, respectively. The study also provides a separate analysis of the product performances for clear sky and cloudy sky conditions. The importance of representing the cloud–aerosol radiative coupling in the MDSSFTD method is discussed. Finally, it is concluded that the quality of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts currently available is accurate enough to obtain reliable diffuse solar flux estimates. This quality of AOD forecasts was still a limitation a few years ago.

Satellite Retrieval of Downwelling Shortwave Surface Flux and Diffuse Fraction under All Sky Conditions in the Framework of the LSA SAF Program (Part 1: Methodology)

Several studies have shown that changes in incoming solar radiation and variations of the diffuse fraction can significantly modify the vegetation carbon uptake. Hence, monitoring the incoming solar radiation at large scale and with high temporal frequency is crucial for this reason along with many others. The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) has operationally disseminated in near real time estimates of the downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface since 2005. This product is derived from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument onboard the Meteosat Second Generation series of geostationary satellites, which covers Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and part of South America. However, near real time generation of the diffuse fraction at the surface level has only recently been initiated. The main difficulty towards achieving this goal was the general lack of accurate information on the aerosol particles in the atmosphere. This limitation is less important nowadays thanks to the improvements in atmospheric numerical models. This study presents an upgrade of the LSA SAF operational retrieval method, which provides the simultaneous estimation of the incoming solar radiation and its diffuse fraction from the satellite every 15 min. The upgrade includes a comprehensive representation of the influence of aerosols based on physical approximations of the radiative transfer within an atmosphere-surface associated medium. This article explains the retrieval method, discusses its limitations and differences with the previous method, and details the characteristics of the output products. A companion article will focus on the evaluation of the products against independent measurements of solar radiation. Finally, the access to the source code is provided through an open access platform in order to share the expertise on the satellite retrieval of this variable with the community.

Nowcasting of Surface Solar Irradiance Using FengYun-4 Satellite Observations over China

The accurate prediction of surface solar irradiance is of great significance for the generation of photovoltaic power. Surface solar irradiance is affected by many random mutation factors, which means that there are great challenges faced in short-term prediction. In Northwest China, there are abundant solar energy resources and large desert areas, which have broad prospects for the development of photovoltaic (PV) systems. For the desert areas in Northwest China, where meteorological stations are scarce, satellite remote sensing data are extremely precious exploration data. In this paper, we present a model using FY-4A satellite images to forecast (up to 15–180 min ahead) global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI), at a 15 min temporal resolution in desert areas under different sky conditions, and compare it with the persistence model (SP). The spatial resolution of the FY-4A satellite images we used was 1 km × 1 km. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) was used to derive the cloud motion vector (CMV) field from the satellite cloud images. The accuracy of the forecast model was evaluated by the ground observed GHI data. The results showed that the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) ranged from 18.9% to 21.6% and the normalized mean bias error (nMBE) ranged from 3.2% to 4.9% for time horizons from 15 to 180 min under all sky conditions. Compared with the SP model, the nRMSE value was reduced by about 6%, 8%, and 14% with the time horizons of 60, 120, and 180 min, respectively.

Spatial Assessment of Solar Radiation by Machine Learning and Deep Neural Network Models Using Data Provided by the COMS MI Geostationary Satellite: A Case Study in South Korea

Although data-driven methods including deep neural network (DNN) were introduced, there was not enough assessment about spatial characteristics when using limited ground observation as reference. This work aimed to interpret the feasibility of several machine learning approaches to assess the spatial distribution of solar radiation on Earth based on the Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) geostationary satellite. Four data-driven models were selected (artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and DNN), to compare their accuracy and spatial estimating performance. Moreover, we used a physical model to probe the ability of data-driven methods, implementing hold-out and k-fold cross-validation approaches based on pyranometers located in South Korea. The results of analysis showed the RF had the highest accuracy in predicting performance, although the difference between RF and the second-best technique (DNN) was insignificant. Temporal variations in root mean square error (RMSE) were dependent on the number of data samples, while the physical model showed relatively less sensitivity. Nevertheless, DNN and RF showed less variability in RMSE than the others. To examine spatial estimation performance, we mapped solar radiation over South Korea for each model. The data-driven models accurately simulated the observed cloud pattern spatially, whereas the physical model failed to do because of cloud mask errors. These exhibited different spatial retrieval performances according to their own training approaches. Overall analysis showed that deeper layers of networks approaches (RF and DNN), could best simulate the challenging spatial pattern of thin clouds when using satellite multispectral data.

Improvement of Hourly Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation Using MSG Rapid Scanning Service

The purpose of this work is to explore the effect of temporal sampling on the accuracy of the hourly mean Surface Solar Irradiance (SSI) estimation. An upgraded version of the Advanced Model for the Estimation of Surface Solar Irradiance from Satellite (AMESIS), exploiting data from the Meteosat Second Generation Rapid Scanning Service (MSG-RSS), has been used to evaluate the SSI. The assessment of the new version of AMESIS has been carried out against data from two pyranometers located in Southern (Tito) and Northern (Ispra) Italy at an altitude of 760 m and 220 m, respectively. The statistical analysis of the comparison between hourly mean SSI estimates based on temporal sampling every five minutes shows a quantitative improvement compared to those based on 15-minute sampling. In particular, for the whole dataset in Tito, the correlation increases from 0.979 to 0.998, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decreases from 45.16 W/m2 to 13.19 W/m2 and the Mean Bias Error (MBE) is reduced from −0.67 W/m2 to −0.02 W/m2. For the whole dataset in Ispra, the correlation increases from 0.995 to 0.998, the RMSE decreases from 24.85 W/m2 to 15.59 W/m2, whereas the MBE increases from 3.84 W/m2 to 4.58 W/m2. This preliminary assessment shows that higher temporal sampling can improve SSI monitoring over areas featuring frequent and rapid solar irradiance variation.