Identification of Dust Sources in a Saharan Dust Hot-Spot and Their Implementation in a Dust-Emission Model

Dust events characterization from visibility, trends and Dust Adversity Index in the Canary Islands for the period 1980-2022

Dust events in the Canary Islands have been documented since the late 19th century. However, during the past few years, several severe dust episodes have occurred in the Canary Islands, resulting in significant impacts on various sectors, such as aviation, air quality, and health, among others. These recent severe events have drawn the attention of both scientists and the general population, raising questions about whether these episodes are now more frequent and more severe. This study analyzes 483 dust events recorded in the Canary Islands over the last 40 years. Data analysis reveals that the average number of dust event days per year is approximately 24 days, and these events have an average duration of 1.8 days, both of which show a statistically significant decreasing trend over the series. Seasonal examination indicates that events occurring in the first and fourth quarters of the year have twice the duration of those in the other quarters. Furthermore, on an annual basis, events in the first quarter exhibit negative trends in both average and minimum visibilities. This suggests that dust events in the Canary Islands are becoming shorter in duration but more intense in terms of visibility. In this article, the Dust Adversity Index (DAI) is introduced to objectively compare the severity of events. Finally, anomalies in geopotential have been utilized to determine the prevailing synoptic patterns during dust events. It is evident that the dominant synoptic pattern during the first and fourth quarters of the year consists of a low cut-off system located to the west of the Canary Islands and a high-pressure system to the north of the Iberian Peninsula.

Spatio-temporal evolution of long-range transported mineral desert dust properties over rural and urban sites in Central Europe

An exceptionally strong and very fast (120h) mineral dust inflow from North Africa to Poland was predicted by NMMB/BSC-Dust and NAAPS models on 10-11 June 2019. Simultaneous measurements with two complex lidar systems at the EARLINET-ACTRIS urban site in Warsaw (Central Poland) and the PolWET peatland site in Rzecin (Western Poland) captured the evolution of this dust event. The advected air masses had different source areas in North Africa, they were reaching each station via independent pathways, and thus, were unlikely mixed with each other. The excellent capabilities of the next generation PollyXT lidar and the mobile EMORAL lidar allowed for the derivation of full datasets of aerosol optical properties profiles that enabled comparative study of the advected dust properties evolution. Within a mere 350 km distance between Warsaw and Rzecin, distinctly different dust properties were measured, respectively: dry mineral dust composed mainly of coarse mode dust particles (50 ± 5 % of the total particle backscattering profile) versus the wet mineral dust dominated by fine dust particles (58 ± 4 %). A new parameter fine-to-coarse dust ratio (FCDR) is proposed to describe more intuitively mineral dust composition.

Dust detection and susceptibility mapping by aiding satellite imagery time series and integration of ensemble machine learning with evolutionary algorithms

To mitigate the impact of dust on human health and the environment, it is crucial to create a model and map that identifies the areas susceptible to dust. The present study focused on identifying dust occurrences in the Bushehr province of Iran between 2002 and 2022 using moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. Subsequently, an ensemble machine learning model was improved to prepare a dust susceptibility map (DSM). The study employed differential evolution (DE), genetic algorithm (GA), and flower pollination algorithm (FPA) - three evolutionary algorithms - to enhance the random forest (RF) ensemble model. A spatial database was created for modeling, including 519 dust occurrence points (extracted from MODIS imagery) and 15 factors affecting dust (Slope, bulk density, aspect, clay, altitude, sand, rainfall, lithology, soil order, distance to river, soil texture, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil water content, land cover, and wind speed). By utilizing the differential evolution (DE) algorithm, we determined the significance of these factors in impacting dust occurrences. The results indicated that altitude, wind speed, and land cover were the most influential factors, while the distance to the river, bulk density, and soil texture had less impact on dust occurrence. Data were preprocessed using multicollinearity analysis and the frequency ratio (FR) approach. For this research, three RF-based meta-heuristic optimization algorithms, namely RF-FPA, RF-GA, and RF-DE, were created for DSM. The effectiveness prediction of the constructed models by indexes of root-mean-square-error (RMSE), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC), and coefficient of determination (R2) from best to worst were RF-DE (RMSE = 0.131, AUC-ROC = 0.988, and R2 = 0.93), RF-GA (RMSE = 0.141, AUC-ROC = 0.986, and R2 = 0.919), RF-FPA (RMSE = 0.157, AUC-ROC = 0.981, and R2 = 0.9), and RF (RMSE = 0.173, AUC-ROC = 0.964, and R2 = 0.878). The results showed that combining evolutionary algorithms with an RF model improves the accuracy of dust susceptibility modeling.

Mapping of dust source susceptibility by remote sensing and machine learning techniques (case study: Iran-Iraq border)

A dust storm is a major environmental problem affecting many arid regions worldwide. The novel contribution of this study is combining indicators extracted from RS- and statistic-based predictive models to spatial mapping of land susceptibility to dust emissions in a very important dust source area in the borders of Iran and Iraq (Khuzestan province in Iran and Al-Basrah and Maysan provinces in Iraq). In this research, remote sensing (RS) techniques and machine learning techniques, including multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), random forest (RF), and logistic regression (LR), were used for dust source identification and susceptibility map preparation. To this end, 152 DSA for the period of 2005-2020 were identified in the study area. Of these DSA data, 70% was assigned to the Dust Source Susceptibility Mapping (DSSM) (training dataset) and 30% to model validation. Consequently, six factors (i.e., soil, lithology, slope, normalized vegetation differential index (NDVI), geomorphology, and land use units) were prepared as DSA's independent and effective variables. The results of all three models indicated that land use had the most impact on DSA. The validation results of these models using the test data showed sub-curves of 0.92, 0.86, and 0.76 for the RF, MARS, and LR models, respectively. Also, results showed that the RF model outperformed MARS (AUC = 0.89) and LR (AUC = 0.78) methods. In all three models, high and very high susceptibility classes generally covered a large percentage of the case study. The highest percentage of dust source points was also in this susceptibility category. Overall, the results of this study can be useful for planners and managers to control and reduce the risk of negative dust consequences.

Development of a Dust Source Map for WRF-Chem Model Based on MODIS NDVI

We present the development of a physically-based dust source map for the GOCART-AFWA dust module in WRF-Chem model. The new parameterization is based on MODIS-NDVI and an updated emission strength map is computed every 15 days from the latest satellite observations. Modeling simulations for the period April–May 2017 over the Mediterranean, north Africa, and the Middle East are compared with observations of AOD at 31 AERONET stations. The new module is capable of reproducing the dust sources at finer detail. The overall performance of the model is improved, especially for stronger dust episodes with AOD > 0.25. For this threshold the model BIAS decreases from −0.20 to −0.02, the RMSE from 0.38 to 0.30, the Correlation Coefficient improves from 0.21 to 0.47, the fractional gross error (FGE) from 0.62 to 0.40, and the mean fractional bias (MFB) from −0.49 to −0.08. Similar improvement is also found for the lower AOD thresholds (>0.0 and >0.1), especially for the stations in Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahel, the Middle East, and Arabian Peninsula, which are mostly affected by dust transport during the experimental period. An overprediction of AOD, compared to the original dust-source scheme, is found for some stations in the Sahara desert, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Iberian Peninsula. In total, 124 out of the 170 statistical scores that are calculated indicate improvement of model performance.

Accuracy Assessment, Comparative Performance, and Enhancement of Public Domain Digital Elevation Models (ASTER 30 m, SRTM 30 m, CARTOSAT 30 m, SRTM 90 m, MERIT 90 m, and TanDEM-X 90 m) Using DGPS

Publicly available Digital Elevation Models (DEM) derived from various space-based platforms (Satellite/Space Shuttle Endeavour) have had a tremendous impact on the quantification of landscape characteristics, and the related processes and products. The accuracy of elevation data from six major public domain satellite-derived Digital Elevation Models (a 30 m grid size—ASTER GDEM version 3 (Ast30), SRTM version 3 (Srt30), CartoDEM version V3R1 (Crt30)—and 90 m grid size—SRTM version 4.1 (Srt90), MERIT (MRT90), and TanDEM-X (TDX90)), as well as the improvement in accuracy achieved by applying a correction (linear fit) using Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) estimates at Ground Control Points (GCPs) is examined in detail. The study area is a hard rock terrain that overall is flat-like with undulating and uneven surfaces (IIT (ISM) Campus and its environs) where the statistical analysis (corrected and uncorrected DEMs), correlation statistics and statistical tests (for elevation and slope), the impact of resampling methods, and the optimum number of GCPs for reduction of error in order to use it in further applications have been presented in detail. As the application of DGPS data at GCPs helps in the substantial reduction of bias by the removal of systematic error, it is recommended that DEMs may be corrected using DGPS before being used in any scientific studies.

Identifying sources of dust aerosol using a new framework based on remote sensing and modelling

Dust particles are transported globally. Dust storms can adversely impact both human health and the environment, but they also impact transportation infrastructure, agriculture, and industry, occasionally severely. The identification of the locations that are the primary sources of dust, especially in arid and semi-arid environments, remains a challenge as these sites are often in remote or data-scarce regions. In this study, a new method using state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms - random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) - was evaluated for its ability to spatially model the distribution of dust-source potential in eastern Iran. To accomplish this, empirically identified dust-source locations were determined with the ozone monitoring instrument aerosol index and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol optical thickness methods. The identified areas were divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Measurements of the conditioning factors (lithology, wind speed, maximum air temperature, land use, slope angle, soil, rainfall, and land cover) were compiled for the study area and predictive models were developed. The area-under-the-receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and true-skill statistics (TSS) were used to validate the maps of the models' predictions. The results show that the RF algorithm performed best (AUC = 89.4% and TSS = 0.751), followed by the SVM (AUC = 87.5%, TSS = 0.73) and the MARS algorithm (AUC = 81%, TSS = 0.69). The results of the RF indicated that wind speed and land cover are the most important factors affecting dust generation. The region of highest dust-source potential that was identified by the RF is in the eastern parts of the study region. This model can be applied to other arid and semi-arid environments that experience dust storms to promote management that prevents desertification and reduces dust production.