Spatio-Temporal Variability in Remotely Sensed Vegetation Greenness Across Yellowstone National Park

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Remote Sensing of Riparian Ecosystems

Riparian zones are dynamic ecosystems that form at the interface between the aquatic and terrestrial components of a landscape. They are shaped by complex interactions between the biophysical components of river systems, including hydrology, geomorphology, and vegetation. Remote sensing technology is a powerful tool useful for understanding riparian form, function, and change over time, as it allows for the continuous collection of geospatial data over large areas. This paper provides an overview of studies published from 1991 to 2021 that have used remote sensing techniques to map and understand the processes that shape riparian habitats and their ecological functions. In total, 257 articles were reviewed and organised into six main categories (physical channel properties; morphology and vegetation or field survey; canopy detection; application of vegetation and water indices; riparian vegetation; and fauna habitat assessment). The majority of studies used aerial RGB imagery for river reaches up to 100 km in length and Landsat satellite imagery for river reaches from 100 to 1000 km in length. During the recent decade, UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) have been widely used for low-cost monitoring and mapping of riverine and riparian environments. However, the transfer of RS data to managers and stakeholders for systematic monitoring as a source of decision making for and successful management of riparian zones remains one of the main challenges.

Widespread regeneration failure in forests of Greater Yellowstone under scenarios of future climate and fire

Changing climate and disturbance regimes are increasingly challenging the resilience of forest ecosystems around the globe. A powerful indicator for the loss of resilience is regeneration failure, that is, the inability of the prevailing tree species to regenerate after disturbance. Regeneration failure can result from the interplay among disturbance changes (e.g., larger and more frequent fires), altered climate conditions (e.g., increased drought), and functional traits (e.g., method of seed dispersal). This complexity makes projections of regeneration failure challenging. Here we applied a novel simulation approach assimilating data-driven fire projections with vegetation responses from process modeling by means of deep neural networks. We (i) quantified the future probability of regeneration failure; (ii) identified spatial hotspots of regeneration failure; and (iii) assessed how current forest types differ in their ability to regenerate under future climate and fire. We focused on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (2.9 × 10⁶  ha of forest) in the Rocky Mountains of the USA, which has experienced large wildfires in the past and is expected to undergo drastic changes in climate and fire in the future. We simulated four climate scenarios until 2100 at a fine spatial grain (100 m). Both wildfire activity and unstocked forest area increased substantially throughout the 21st century in all simulated scenarios. By 2100, between 28% and 59% of the forested area failed to regenerate, indicating considerable loss of resilience. Areas disproportionally at risk occurred where fires are not constrained by topography and in valleys aligned with predominant winds. High-elevation forest types not adapted to fire (i.e., Picea engelmannii-Abies lasiocarpa as well as non-serotinous Pinus contorta var. latifolia forests) were especially vulnerable to regeneration failure. We conclude that changing climate and fire could exceed the resilience of forests in a substantial portion of Greater Yellowstone, with profound implications for carbon, biodiversity, and recreation.

The Mixing Regime and Turbidity of Lake Banyoles (NE Spain): Response to Climate Change

This study analyses the water temperature changes in Lake Banyoles over the past four decades. Lake Banyoles, Spain’s second highest lake, situated in the western Mediterranean (NE Iberian Peninsula). Over the past 44 years, the warming trend of the lake’s surface waters (0.52 °C decade−1) and the cooling trend of its deep waters (−0.66 °C decade−1) during summer (July–September) have resulted in an increased degree of stratification. Furthermore, the stratification period is currently double that of the 1970s. Meanwhile, over the past two decades, lake surface turbidity has remained constant in summer. Although turbidity did decrease during winter, it still remained higher than in the summer months. This reduction in turbidity is likely associated with the decrease in groundwater input into the lake, which has been caused by a significant decrease in rainfall in the aquifer recharge area that feeds the lake through groundwater sources. As a unique freshwater sentinel lake under the influence of the climate change, Lake Banyoles provides evidence that global warming in the western Mediterranean boosts the strength and duration of the lake’s stratification and, in response, the associated decrease in the turbidity of its epilimnion.

Quantifying Drought Sensitivity of Mediterranean Climate Vegetation to Recent Warming: A Case Study in Southern California

A combination of drought and high temperatures (“global-change-type drought”) is projected to become increasingly common in Mediterranean climate regions. Recently, Southern California has experienced record-breaking high temperatures coupled with significant precipitation deficits, which provides opportunities to investigate the impacts of high temperatures on the drought sensitivity of Mediterranean climate vegetation. Responses of different vegetation types to drought are quantified using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the period 2000–2017. The contrasting responses of the vegetation types to drought are captured by the correlation and regression coefficients between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). A novel bootstrapping regression approach is used to decompose the relationships between the vegetation sensitivity (NDVI–PDSI regression slopes) and the principle climate factors (temperature and precipitation) associated with the drought. Significantly increased sensitivity to drought in warmer locations indicates the important role of temperature in exacerbating vulnerability; however, spatial precipitation variations do not demonstrate significant effects in modulating drought sensitivity. Based on annual NDVI response, chaparral is the most vulnerable community to warming, which will probably be severely affected by hotter droughts in the future. Drought sensitivity of coastal sage scrub (CSS) is also shown to be very responsive to warming in fall and winter. Grassland and developed land will likely be less affected by this warming. The sensitivity of the overall vegetation to temperature increases is particularly concerning, as it is the variable that has had the strongest secular trend in recent decades, which is expected to continue or strengthen in the future. Increased temperatures will probably alter vegetation distribution, as well as possibly increase annual grassland cover, and decrease the extent and ecological services provided by perennial woody Mediterranean climate ecosystems as well.