Assessment of Physical Water Scarcity in Africa Using GRACE and TRMM Satellite Data

Reconciling and contextualising multi-dimensional aspects for consolidated water security index: A synthesis

The present paper aims to review and develop a Consolidated Water Security Index (CWSI) as a tool to evaluate water security status within river basins by considering five key dimensions, namely (i) water supply and sanitation, (ii) water demand and socio-economic, (iii) water ecosystem and environment, (iv) water-related disaster and (v) water governance. This index is a holistic assessment since it aims to capture the interconnected and complex nature of water-related issues by considering multiple dimensional aspects which helps stakeholders and policymakers to understand the overall status of water security. This framework uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), involving pairwise comparison, normalisation and weighting. Then, a CWSI will be calculated using the Linear Aggregation method. The robustness of this consolidated index is validated using sensitivity analysis by modifying the weight in the linear aggregation formula. By following each step cautiously, a CWSI can be constructed and interpreted correctly, thus, becoming a powerful tool for conveying complex information to the different stakeholders and assessing the status of water security with river basins. The CWSI allows decision-makers to prioritise areas that are most at risk and facilitate sustainable planning and management of water resources.

Monitoring environmental and climate goals for European agriculture: User perspectives on the optimization of the Copernicus evolution offer

A vicious cycle exists between agricultural production and climate change, where agriculture is both a driver and a victim of the changing climate. While new and ambitious environmental and climate change-oriented goals are being introduced in Europe, the monitoring of these objectives is often jeopardized by a lack of technological means and a reliance on heavy administrative procedures. In particular, remote sensing technologies have the potential to significantly improve the monitoring of such goals but the characteristics of such missions should take into consideration the needs of users to guarantee return on investments and effective policy implementation. This study aims at identifying gaps in the current offer of Copernicus products for the monitoring of the agricultural sector through the elicitation of stakeholder requirements. The methodology is applied to the case study of Italy while the approach is scalable at European level. The elicitation process associates user needs to the European and national legislative framework to create a policy-oriented demand of Copernicus Earth Observation services. Results show the limitations faced by environmental managers in relation to the use of Remote Sensing technologies and the shortcomings associated with a purely technology driven approach to the development of satellite missions. Through the introduction of this flexible and user centred approach instead, this paper provides a clear overview of agro-environmental user requirements and represents the basis for the definition of an integrated agricultural service.

Assessing Freshwater Changes over Southern and Central Africa (2002–2017)

In large freshwater river basins across the globe, the composite influences of large-scale climatic processes and human activities (e.g., deforestation) on hydrological processes have been studied. However, the knowledge of these processes in this era of the Anthropocene in the understudied hydrologically pristine South Central African (SCA) region is limited. This study employs satellite observations of evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation and freshwater between 2002 and 2017 to explore the hydrological patterns of this region, which play a crucial role in global climatology. Multivariate methods, including the rotated principal component analysis (rPCA) were used to assess the relationship of terrestrial water storage (TWS) in response to climatic units (precipitation and ET). The use of the rPCA technique in assessing changes in TWS is warranted to provide more information on hydrological changes that are usually obscured by other dominant naturally-driven fluxes. Results show a low trend in vegetation transpiration due to deforestation around the Congo basin. Overall, the Congo (r2 = 76%) and Orange (r2 = 72%) River basins maintained an above-average consistency between precipitation and TWS throughout the study region and period. Consistent loss in freshwater is observed in the Zambezi (−9.9 ± 2.6 mm/year) and Okavango (−9.1 ± 2.5 mm/year) basins from 2002 to 2008. The Limpopo River basin is observed to have a 6% below average reduction in rainfall rates which contributed to its consistent loss in freshwater (−4.6 ± 3.2 mm/year) from 2006 to 2012.Using multi-linear regression and correlation analysis we show that ET contributes to the variability and distribution of TWS in the region. The relationship of ET with TWS (r = 0.5) and rainfall (r = 0.8) over SCA provides insight into the role of ET in regulating fluxes and the mechanisms that drive precipitation in the region. The moderate ET–TWS relationship also shows the effect of climate and anthropogenic influence in their interactions.

Twentieth and Twenty-First Century Water Storage Changes in the Nile River Basin from GRACE/GRACE-FO and Modeling

This research assesses the changes in total water storage (TWS) during the twentieth century and future projections in the Nile River Basin (NRB) via TWSA (TWS anomalies) records from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), GRACE-FO (Follow-On), data-driven-reanalysis TWSA and a land surface model (LSM), in association with precipitation, temperature records, and standard drought indicators. The analytical approach incorporates the development of 100+ yearlong TWSA records using a probabilistic conditional distribution fitting approach by the GAMLSS (generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape) model. The model performance was tested using standard indicators including coevolution plots, the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, cumulative density function, standardized residuals, and uncertainty bounds. All model evaluation results are satisfactory to excellent. The drought and flooding severity/magnitude, duration, and recurrence frequencies were assessed during the studied period. The results showed, (1) The NRB between 2002 to 2020 has witnessed a substantial transition to wetter conditions. Specifically, during the wet season, the NRB received between ~50 Gt./yr. to ~300 Gt./yr. compared to ~30 Gt./yr. to ~70 Gt./yr. of water loss during the dry season. (2) The TWSA reanalysis records between 1901 to 2002 revealed that the NRB had experienced a positive increase in TWS of ~17% during the wet season. Moreover, the TWS storage had witnessed a recovery of ~28% during the dry season. (3) The projected TWSA between 2021 to 2050 unveiled a positive increase in the TWS during the rainy season. While during the dry season, the water storage showed insubstantial TWS changes. Despite these projections, the future storage suggested a reduction between 10 to 30% in TWS. The analysis of drought and flooding frequencies between 1901 to 2050 revealed that the NRB has ~64 dry-years compared to ~86 wet-years. The exceedance probabilities for the normal conditions are between 44 to 52%, relative to a 4% chance of extreme events. The recurrence interval of the normal to moderate wet or dry conditions is ~6 years. These TWSA trajectories call for further water resources planning in the region, especially during flood seasons. This research contributes to the ongoing efforts to improve the TWSA assessment and its associated dynamics for transboundary river basins.

Applying the Water-Energy Nexus for Water Supply—A Diagnostic Review on Energy Use for Water Provision in Africa

This work explores the application of the Water-Energy Nexus concept for water supply in the African context, where its operationalization is quite limited compared to developed regions. Furthermore, water supply and demand drivers and their influence on energy use are examined. This study found that there is limited literature available on the operationalization of the concept, and energy use is not considered a key performance indicator by water regulators and utilities. Regionally, most of the studies were carried out in the northern and southern Africa, where energy demand for water supply through desalination is high. An analysis of water supply and demand drivers show diminishing quantities of available freshwater, and increased anthropogenic pollutant loads in some areas are projected. Consequently, utilities will likely consider alternative energy-intensive water supply options. Increased population growth with the highest global urban growth rate is projected, with about 60% of the total population in Africa as urban dwellers by 2050. This implies huge growth in water demand that calls for investment in technology, infrastructure, and improved understanding of energy use and optimization, as the largest controllable input within utilities boundaries. However, it requires a data-driven understanding of the operational drivers for water supply and incorporation of energy assessment metrics to inform water-energy policies and to exploit the nexus opportunities.

Short-term trends in Africa's freshwater resources: Rates and drivers

The freshwater resources in Africa are vulnerable to natural variabilities as well as anthropogenic interventions. In this study, temporal (April 2002-June 2017) Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are integrated, in a geographic information system environment, with rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, and altimetry remote sensing datasets to monitor the short-term trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the African hydrogeologic systems and to explore their origins. Results show that short-term trends over the African continent are largely driven by natural variability such as changes in rainfall, evapotranspiration, and associated variations in lake levels. Exceptions to this observation include central Africa, where deforestation is found to additionally drive changes in TWS, as well as northern Africa, where TWS changes are dominated by anthropogenic groundwater extraction from fossil aquifers. Findings highlight the need for integrative responses at local, national, regional, and international levels by the African nations to overcome current and future challenges related to freshwater availability in Africa.

Sustainable and resilient management scenarios for groundwater resources of the Red Sea coastal aquifers

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, along with readily available remote sensing datasets and the outputs of land-surface and climate models, are used to monitor spatiotemporal variabilities in the groundwater resources of the Red Sea Coastal Aquifer (RSCA) system in Saudi Arabia; to investigate their responses to climate projections; and to provide sustainable and resilient management scenarios for these resources. Our results indicate that, during the investigated period (April 2002-June 2017), the RSCA received an average annual recharge of 3.16 ± 0.52 km³. Recharge events (~16% of rainfall) are related to the observed increase in rainfall rates. Analysis of climate models' outputs over the RSCA indicates an increase in the median annual rainfall (17-31%) and recharge rates (2.7-4.9%) by the end of the 21st century. To ensure sustainable management and utilization of RSCA's water resources, groundwater extraction should be located in the southern and central parts of the aquifer, and groundwater extraction rates should be kept lower than 2.0 km³/yr. Findings highlight the importance of GRACE data as a unique, cost-effective, and decisive tool in monitoring the health of coastal and inland aquifer systems across the globe.

Satellite Remote Sensing of Precipitation and the Terrestrial Water Cycle in a Changing Climate

The water cycle is the most essential supporting physical mechanism ensuring the existence of life on Earth. Its components encompass the atmosphere, land, and oceans. The cycle is composed of evaporation, evapotranspiration, sublimation, water vapor transport, condensation, precipitation, runoff, infiltration and percolation, groundwater flow, and plant uptake. For a correct closure of the global water cycle, observations are needed of all these processes with a global perspective. In particular, precipitation requires continuous monitoring, as it is the most important component of the cycle, especially under changing climatic conditions. Passive and active sensors on board meteorological and environmental satellites now make reasonably complete data available that allow better measurements of precipitation to be made from space, in order to improve our understanding of the cycle’s acceleration/deceleration under current and projected climate conditions. The article aims to draw an up-to-date picture of the current status of observations of precipitation from space, with an outlook to the near future of the satellite constellation, modeling applications, and water resource management.

+50 Years of Terrestrial Hydroclimatic Variability in Africa's Transboundary Waters

GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) provides unique and unprecedented perspectives about freshwater availability and change globally. However, GRACE-TWS records are relatively short for long-term hydroclimatic variability studies, dating back to April 2002. In this paper, we made use of Noah Land Surface Model (LSM), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data in an autoregressive model with exogenous variables (ARX) to reconstruct a 66-year record of TWS for nine major transboundary river basins (TRBs) in Africa. Model performance was evaluated using standard indicators, including the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency criteria, cumulative density frequency, standardized residuals plots, and model uncertainty bounds. Temporally, the reconstruction results were evaluated for trend, cycles, and mode of variability against ancillary data from the WaterGAP Model (WGHM-TWS) and GPCC-based precipitation anomalies. The temporal pattern reveals good agreement between the reconstructed TWS, WGHM-TWS, and GPCC, (p-value < 0.0001). The reconstructed TWS suggests a significant declining trend across the northern and central TRBs since 1951, while the southern basins show an insignificant trend. The mode of variability analysis indicates short storage periodicity of four to sixteen-month in the northern basins, while strong intra-annual variability in the central and southern basins. The long-term TWS records provide additional support to Africa’s water resources research on hydroclimatic variability and change in shared transboundary water basins.