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Yamamoto ALC, Corrêa MDP, Torres RR, Martins FB, Godin-Beekmann S. Projected changes in ultraviolet index and UV doses over the twenty-first century: impacts of ozone and aerosols from CMIP6. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2024; 23:1279-1294. [PMID: 38762827 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-024-00594-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2024] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
This study evaluated the health-related weighted ultraviolet radiation (UVR) due to the total ozone content (TOC) and the aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes. Clear-sky Ultraviolet Index (UVI), daily doses, and exposure times for erythema induction (Dery and Tery) and vitamin D synthesis (DvitD and TvitD) were computed by a radiative transfer estimator. TOC and AOD data were provided by six Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). For projections, we consider four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios-SSPs (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5)-and two time-slices (near: 2041-2060 and far future: 2081-2100). UVR projections showed pronounced changes for the summer hemispheres in the far future. TOC increases in mid- and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere caused decreases in UVR at the summer solstice. However, projections did not indicate sun-safe exposure conditions in South America, Australia, and Southern Africa. On the contrary, exposure around solar noon from 10 to 20 min will still be sufficient to induce erythema in skin type III individuals throughout this century. In southern Argentina and Chile, the UVR insufficiency for vitamin D synthesis at solar noon in skin type III remains the same during this century at the winter solstice. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI and Dery at the summer solstice should remain high (UVI ≥ 8; Dery ~ 7.0 kJ m-2) in highly populated locations. Above 45 °N, UVR levels cannot be enough to synthesize vitamin D in skin type III during the boreal winter. Our results show that climate change will affect human health through excess or lack of solar UVR availability.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Marcelo de Paula Corrêa
- Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Av. BPS, 1303, Itajubá, MG, 37500-903, Brazil
| | - Roger Rodrigues Torres
- Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Av. BPS, 1303, Itajubá, MG, 37500-903, Brazil
| | - Fabrina Bolzan Martins
- Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Av. BPS, 1303, Itajubá, MG, 37500-903, Brazil
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Impact of Vertical Profiles of Aerosols on the Photolysis Rates in the Lower Troposphere from the Synergy of Photometer and Ceilometer Measurements in Raciborz, Poland, for the Period 2015–2020. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14051057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
The effect of the aerosol vertical distribution on photolysis frequencies of O3 and NO2 is studied. Aerosol measurements in Raciborz (50.08° N, 18.19° E), Poland, made using the CIMEL Sun photometer and collocated CHM-15k “Nimbus” ceilometer are analyzed for the period 2015–2020. Vertical profiles of the aerosol extinction are derived from the Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties (GRASP) algorithm combining the ceilometer measurements of the aerosol backscattering coefficient with the collocated CIMEL measurements of the columnar characteristics of aerosols. The photolysis frequencies are calculated at the three levels in the lower troposphere (the surface and 0.5 and 2 km above the surface) using a radiative transfer model, Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV), for various settings of aerosol optical properties in the model input. The importance of the aerosol vertical distribution on photolysis frequencies is inferred by analyzing statistics of the differences between the output of the model, including the extinction profile from the GRASP algorithm, and the default TUV model (based on columnar aerosol characteristics by the CIMEL Sun photometer and Elterman’s extinction profile). For model levels above the surface, standard deviation, 2.5th percentile, 97.5th percentile, and the extremes, calculated from relative differences between these input settings, are comparable with the pertaining statistical values for the input pair providing changes of photolysis frequencies only due to the variability of the columnar aerosol characteristics. This indicates that the vertical properties of aerosols affect the distribution of the photolysis frequencies in the lower troposphere on a similar scale to that due to variations in columnar aerosol characteristics.
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Aerosol Layering in the Free Troposphere over the Industrial City of Raciborz in Southwest Poland and Its Influence on Surface UV Radiation. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12070812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Atmospheric aerosol and ultraviolet index (UVI) measurements performed in Racibórz (50.08° N, 18.19° E) were analyzed for the period June–September 2019. Results of the following observations were taken into account: columnar characteristics of the aerosols (aerosol thickness, Angstrom exponent, single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor) obtained from standard CIMEL sun-photometer observations and parameters of aerosol layers (ALs) in the free troposphere (the number of layers and altitudes of the base and top) derived from continuous monitoring by a CHM-15k ceilometer. Three categories of ALs were defined: residues from the daily evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) aerosols, from the PBL-adjacent layer, and from the elevated layer above the PBL. Total column ozone measurements taken by the Ozone-Monitoring Instrument on board NASA’s Aura satellite completed the list of variables used to model UVI variability under clear-sky conditions. The aim was to present a hybrid model (radiative transfer model combined with a regression model) for determining ALs’ impact on the observed UVI series. First, a radiative transfer model, the Tropospheric Ultraviolet–Visible (TUV) model, which uses typical columnar characteristics to describe UV attenuation in the atmosphere, was applied to calculate hypothetical surface UVI values under clear-sky conditions. These modeled values were used to normalize the measured UVI data obtained during cloudless conditions. Next, a regression of the normalized UVI values was made using the AL characteristics. Random forest (RF) regression was chosen to search for an AL signal in the measured data. This explained about 55% of the variance in the normalized UVI series under clear-sky conditions. Finally, the UVI values were calculated as the product of the RF regression and the relevant UVIs by the columnar TUV model. The root mean square error and mean absolute error of the hybrid model were 1.86% and 1.25%, respectively, about 1 percentage point lower than corresponding values derived from the columnar TUV model. The 5th–95th percentile ranges of the observation/model differences were [−2.5%, 2.8%] and [−3.0%, 5.3%] for the hybrid model and columnar TUV model, respectively. Therefore, the impact of ALs on measured surface UV radiation could be demonstrated using the proposed AL characteristics. The statistical analysis of the UVI differences between the models allowed us to identify specific AL configuration responsible for these differences.
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Bernhard GH, Neale RE, Barnes PW, Neale PJ, Zepp RG, Wilson SR, Andrady AL, Bais AF, McKenzie RL, Aucamp PJ, Young PJ, Liley JB, Lucas RM, Yazar S, Rhodes LE, Byrne SN, Hollestein LM, Olsen CM, Young AR, Robson TM, Bornman JF, Jansen MAK, Robinson SA, Ballaré CL, Williamson CE, Rose KC, Banaszak AT, Häder DP, Hylander S, Wängberg SÅ, Austin AT, Hou WC, Paul ND, Madronich S, Sulzberger B, Solomon KR, Li H, Schikowski T, Longstreth J, Pandey KK, Heikkilä AM, White CC. Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2020; 19:542-584. [PMID: 32364555 PMCID: PMC7442302 DOI: 10.1039/d0pp90011g] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.
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Affiliation(s)
- G H Bernhard
- Biospherical Instruments Inc., San Diego, California, USA
| | - R E Neale
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - P W Barnes
- Biological Sciences and Environment Program, Loyola University, New Orleans, USA
| | - P J Neale
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, Maryland, USA
| | - R G Zepp
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, Georgia, USA
| | - S R Wilson
- School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - A L Andrady
- Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - A F Bais
- Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - R L McKenzie
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Lauder, Central Otago, New Zealand
| | - P J Aucamp
- Ptersa Environmental Consultants, Faerie Glen, South Africa
| | - P J Young
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - J B Liley
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Lauder, Central Otago, New Zealand
| | - R M Lucas
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - S Yazar
- Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, Australia
| | - L E Rhodes
- Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, and Salford Royal Hospital, Manchester, UK
| | - S N Byrne
- School of Medical Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - L M Hollestein
- Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Manchester, The Netherlands
| | - C M Olsen
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - A R Young
- St John's Institute of Dermatology, King's College, London, London, UK
| | - T M Robson
- Organismal & Evolutionary Biology, Viikki Plant Science Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - J F Bornman
- Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia.
| | - M A K Jansen
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - S A Robinson
- Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - C L Ballaré
- Faculty of Agronomy and IFEVA-CONICET, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - C E Williamson
- Department of Biology, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio, USA
| | - K C Rose
- Department of Biological Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York, USA
| | - A T Banaszak
- Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico
| | - D -P Häder
- Department of Biology, Friedrich-Alexander University, Möhrendorf, Germany
| | - S Hylander
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - S -Å Wängberg
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - A T Austin
- Faculty of Agronomy and IFEVA-CONICET, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - W -C Hou
- Department of Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan, China
| | - N D Paul
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - S Madronich
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - B Sulzberger
- Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland
| | - K R Solomon
- Centre for Toxicology, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - H Li
- Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - T Schikowski
- Research Group of Environmental Epidemiology, Leibniz Institute of Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - J Longstreth
- Institute for Global Risk Research, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - K K Pandey
- Institute of Wood Science and Technology, Bengaluru, India
| | - A M Heikkilä
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - C C White
- , 5409 Mohican Rd, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
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