Improving the Accuracy of Fine-Grained Population Mapping Using Population-Sensitive POIs

High-Precision Population Spatialization in Metropolises Based on Ensemble Learning: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Accurate spatial population distribution information, especially for metropolises, is of significant value and is fundamental to many application areas such as public health, urban development planning and disaster assessment management. Random forest is the most widely used model in population spatialization studies. However, a reliable model for accurately mapping the spatial distribution of metropolitan populations is still lacking due to the inherent limitations of the random forest model and the complexity of the population spatialization problem. In this study, we integrate gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) and support vector regression (SVR) through ensemble-learning algorithm-stacking to construct a novel population-spatialization model we name GXLS-Stacking. We integrate socioeconomic data that enhance the characterization of the population’s spatial distribution (e.g., point-of-interest data, building outline data with height, artificial impervious surface data, etc.) and natural environmental data with a combination of census data to train the model to generate a high-precision gridded population density map with a 100 m spatial resolution for Beijing in 2020. Finally, the generated gridded population density map is validated at the pixel level using the highest resolution validation data (i.e., community household registration data) in the current study. The results show that the GXLS-Stacking model can predict the population’s spatial distribution with high precision (R2 = 0.8004, MAE = 34.67 persons/hectare, RMSE = 54.92 persons/hectare), and its overall performance is not only better than the four individual models but also better than the random forest model. Compared to the natural environmental features, a city’s socioeconomic features are more capable in characterizing the spatial distribution of the population and the intensity of human activities. In addition, the gridded population density map obtained by the GXLS-Stacking model can provide highly accurate information on the population’s spatial distribution and can be used to analyze the spatial patterns of metropolitan population density. Moreover, the GXLS-Stacking model has the ability to be generalized to metropolises with comprehensive and high-quality data, whether in China or in other countries. Furthermore, for small and medium-sized cities, our modeling process can still provide an effective reference for their population spatialization methods.

Optimization of Shelter Location Based on a Combined Static/Dynamic Two-Stage Optimization Methodology: A Case Study in the Central Urban Area of Xinyi City, China

Determining how to reasonably allocate shelters in the central area of the city and improve evacuation efficiency are important issues in the field of urban disaster prevention. This paper introduces the methodology and mathematical model from the field of crowd emergency evacuation to shelter location optimization. Moreover, a shelter location optimization method based on the combination of static network analysis and dynamic evacuation simulation is proposed. The construction costs and evacuation times are taken as the objective functions. In the first stage, based on the static network analysis, a circular evacuation allocation rule based on the gravity model is proposed, and the genetic algorithm is then designed to solve the feasible schemes with the lowest shelter construction costs. In the second stage, the evacuation time is taken as the optimization objective. The age differences of refugees, the selection of evacuation routes, and the behavior of adults helping children and the elderly are simulated in a dynamic evacuation simulation model. The traditional social force model is improved to conduct a regional evacuation simulation and determine the optimal scheme with the shortest evacuation time. Finally, the central urban area of Xinyi City, Jiangsu Province, China, is taken as an empirical case.

Optimization of Modelling Population Density Estimation Based on Impervious Surfaces

Population data are key indicators of policymaking, public health, and land use in urban and ecological systems; however, traditional censuses are time-consuming, expensive, and laborious. This study proposes a method of modelling population density estimations based on remote sensing data in Hefei. Four models with impervious surface (IS), night light (NTL), and point of interest (POI) data as independent variables are constructed at the township scale, and the optimal model was applied to pixels to obtain a finer population density distribution. The results show that: (1) impervious surface (IS) data can be effectively extracted by the linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) method; (2) there is a high potential of the multi-variable model to estimate the population density, with an adjusted R2 of 0.832, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.420 from 10-fold cross validation recorded; (3) downscaling the predicted population density from the township scale to pixels using the multi-variable stepwise regression model achieves a more refined population density distribution. This study provides a promising method for the rapid and effective prediction of population data in interval years, and data support for urban planning and population management.

Mapping China’s Electronic Power Consumption Using Points of Interest and Remote Sensing Data

Producing gridded electric power consumption (EPC) maps at a fine geographic scale is critical for rational deployment and effective utilization of electric power resources. Brightness of nighttime light (NTL) has been extensively adopted to evaluate the spatial patterns of EPC at multiple geographical scales. However, the blooming effect and saturation issue of NTL imagery limit its ability to accurately map EPC. Moreover, limited sectoral separation in applying NTL leads to the inaccurate spatial distribution of EPC, particularly in the case of industrial EPC, which is often a dominant portion of the total EPC in China. This study pioneers the separate estimation of spatial patterns of industrial and nonindustrial EPC over mainland China by jointly using points of interest (POIs) and multiple remotely sensed data in a random forests (RF) model. The POIs provided fine and detailed information about the different socioeconomic activities and played a significant role in determining industrial and nonindustrial EPC distribution. Based on the RF model, we produced industrial, non-industrial, and overall EPC maps at a 1 km resolution in mainland China for 2011. Compared against statistical data at the county level, our results showed a high accuracy (R2 = 0.958 for nonindustrial EPC estimation, 0.848 for industrial EPC estimation, and 0.913 for total EPC). This study indicated that the proposed RF-based method, integrating POIs and multiple remote sensing data, can markedly improve the accuracy for estimating EPC. This study also revealed the great potential of POIs in mapping the distribution of socioeconomic parameters.

Intraday Variation Mapping of Population Age Structure via Urban-Functional-Region-Based Scaling

The spatial distribution of the population is uneven for various reasons, such as urban-rural differences and geographical conditions differences. As the basic element of the natural structure of the population, the age structure composition of populations also varies considerably across the world. Obtaining accurate and spatiotemporal population age structure maps is crucial for calculating population size at risk, analyzing populations mobility patterns, or calculating health and development indicators. During the past decades, many population maps in the form of administrative units and grids have been produced. However, these population maps are limited by the lack of information on the change of population distribution within a day and the age structure of the population. Urban functional regions (UFRs) are closely related to population mobility patterns, which can provide information about population variation intraday. Focusing on the area within the Beijing Fifth Ring Road, the political and economic center of Beijing, we showed how to use the temporal scaling factors obtained by analyzing the population survey sampling data and population dasymetric maps in different categories of UFRs to realize the intraday variation mapping of elderly individuals and children. The population dasymetric maps were generated on the basis of covariates related to population. In this article, 50 covariates were calculated from remote sensing data and geospatial data. However, not all covariates are associate with population distribution. In order to improve the accuracy of dasymetric maps and reduce the cost of mapping, it is necessary to select the optimal subset for the dasymetric model of elderly and children. The random forest recursive feature elimination (RF-RFE) algorithm was introduced to obtain the optimal subset of different age groups of people and generate the population dasymetric model in this article, as well as to screen out the optimal subset with 38 covariates and 26 covariates for the dasymetric models of the elderly and children, respectively. An accurate UFR identification method combining point of interest (POI) data and OpenStreetMap (OSM) road network data is also introduced in this article. The overall accuracy of the identification results of UFRs was 70.97%, which is quite accurate. The intraday variation maps of population age structure on weekdays and weekends were made within the Beijing Fifth Ring Road. Accuracy evaluation based on sampling data found that the overall accuracy was relatively high—R2 for each time period was higher than 0.5 and root mean square error (RMSE) was less than 0.05. On weekdays in particular, R2 for each time period was higher than 0.61 and RMSE was less than 0.02.

Mapping Changing Population Distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau since 2000 with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing and Point-of-Interest Data

Advanced developments have been achieved in urban human population estimation, however, there is still a considerable research gap for the mapping of remote rural populations. In this study, based on demographic data at the town-level, multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing data, and local population-sensitive point-of-interest (POI) data, we tailored a random forest-based dasymetric approach to map population distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) for 2000, 2010, and 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1000 m. We then analyzed the temporal and spatial change of this distribution. The results showed that the QTP has a sparse population distribution overall; in large areas of the northern QTP, the population density is zero, accounting for about 14% of the total area of the QTP. About half of the QTP showed a rapid increase in population density between 2000 and 2016, mainly located in the eastern and southern parts of Qinghai Province and the central-eastern parts of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Regarding the relative importance of variables in explaining population density, the variables “Distance to Temples” is the most important, followed by “Density of Villages” and “Elevation”. Furthermore, our new products exhibited higher accuracy compared with five recently released gridded population density datasets, namely WorldPop, Gridded Population of the World version 4, and three national gridded population datasets for China. Both the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for our products were about half of those of the compared products except for WorldPop. This study provides a reference for using fine-scale demographic count and local population-sensitive POIs to model changing population distribution in remote rural areas.

A Fuzzy Logic-Based Approach for Modelling Uncertainty in Open Geospatial Data on Landfill Suitability Analysis

Besides OpenStreetMap (OSM), there are other local sources, such as open government data (OGD), that have the potential to enrich the modeling process with decision criteria that uniquely reflect some local patterns. However, both data are affected by uncertainty issues, which limits their usability. This work addresses the imprecisions on suitability layers generated from such data. The proposed method is founded on fuzzy logic theories. The model integrates OGD, OSM data and remote sensing products and generate reliable landfill suitability results. A comparison analysis demonstrates that the proposed method generates more accurate, representative and reliable suitability results than traditional methods. Furthermore, the method has facilitated the introduction of open government data for suitability studies, whose fusion improved estimations of population distribution and land-use mapping than solely relying on free remotely sensed images. The proposed method is applicable for preparing decision maps from open datasets that have undergone similar generalization procedures as the source of their uncertainty. The study provides evidence for the applicability of OGD and other related open data initiatives (ODIs) for land-use suitability studies, especially in developing countries.

Assessment of Population Exposure to Urban Flood at the Building Scale

The assessment of populations affected by urban flooding is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation but is highly influenced by the accuracy of population datasets. The population distribution is related to buildings during the urban floods, so assessing the population at the building scale is more rational for the urban floods, which is possible due to the abundance of multi-source data and advances in GIS technology. Therefore, this study assesses the populations affected by urban floods through population mapping at the building scale using highly correlated point of interest (POI) data. The population distribution is first mapped by downscaling the grid-based WorldPop population data to the building scale. Then, the population affected by urban floods is estimated by superimposing the population data sets onto flood areas, with flooding simulated by the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. Finally, the proposed method is applied to Lishui City in southeast China. The results show that the population affected by urban floods is significantly reduced for different rainstorm scenarios when using the building-scale population instead of WorldPop. In certain areas, populations not captured by WorldPop can be identified using the building-scale population. This study provides a new method for estimating populations affected by urban flooding.

Urban Building Type Mapping Using Geospatial Data: A Case Study of Beijing, China

The information of building types is highly needed for urban planning and management, especially in high resolution building modeling in which buildings are the basic spatial unit. However, in many parts of the world, this information is still missing. In this paper, we proposed a framework to derive the information of building type using geospatial data, including point-of-interest (POI) data, building footprints, land use polygons, and roads, from Gaode and Baidu Maps. First, we used natural language processing (NLP)-based approaches (i.e., text similarity measurement and topic modeling) to automatically reclassify POI categories into which can be used to directly infer building types. Second, based on the relationship between building footprints and POIs, we identified building types using two indicators of type ratio and area ratio. The proposed framework was tested using over 440,000 building footprints in Beijing, China. Our NLP-based approaches and building type identification methods show overall accuracies of 89.0% and 78.2%, and kappa coefficient of 0.83 and 0.71, respectively. The proposed framework is transferrable to other China cities for deriving the information of building types from web mapping platforms. The data products generated from this study are of great use for quantitative urban studies at the building level.