Satellite Retrieval of Downwelling Shortwave Surface Flux and Diffuse Fraction under All Sky Conditions in the Framework of the LSA SAF Program (Part 1: Methodology)

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and a Multilayer Perceptron Model Trained with Grey Wolf Optimizer for Predicting Solar Diffuse Fraction

The accurate prediction of the solar diffuse fraction (DF), sometimes called the diffuse ratio, is an important topic for solar energy research. In the present study, the current state of Diffuse irradiance research is discussed and then three robust, machine learning (ML) models are examined using a large dataset (almost eight years) of hourly readings from Almeria, Spain. The ML models used herein, are a hybrid adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), a single multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a hybrid multi-layer perceptron grey wolf optimizer (MLP-GWO). These models were evaluated for their predictive precision, using various solar and DF irradiance data, from Spain. The results were then evaluated using frequently used evaluation criteria, the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and the root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that the MLP-GWO model, followed by the ANFIS model, provided a higher performance in both the training and the testing procedures.

Satellite Retrieval of Downwelling Shortwave Surface Flux and Diffuse Fraction under All Sky Conditions in the Framework of the LSA SAF Program (Part 2: Evaluation)

High frequency knowledge of the spatio-temporal distribution of the downwelling surface shortwave flux (DSSF) and its diffuse fraction (fd) at the surface is nowadays essential for understanding climate processes at the surface–atmosphere interface, plant photosynthesis and carbon cycle, and for the solar energy sector. The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis operationally delivers estimation of the MDSSFTD (MSG Downwelling Surface Short-wave radiation Fluxes—Total and Diffuse fraction) product with an operational status since the year 2019. The method for retrieval was presented in a companion paper. Part 2 now focuses on the evaluation of the MDSSFTD algorithm and presents a comparison of the corresponding outputs, i.e., total DSSF and diffuse fraction (fd) components, against in situ measurements acquired at four Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations over a seven-month period. The validation is performed on an instantaneous basis. We show that the satellite estimates of DSSF and fd meet the target requirements defined by the user community for all-sky (clear and cloudy) conditions. For DSSF, the requirements are 20 Wm−2 for DSSF < 200 Wm−2, and 10% for DSSF ≥ 200 Wm−2. The mean bias error (MBE) and relative mean bias error (rMBE) compared to the ground measurements are 3.618 Wm−2 and 0.252%, respectively. For fd, the requirements are 0.1 for fd < 0.5, and 20% for fd ≥ 0.5. The MBE and rMBE compared to the ground measurements are −0.044% and −17.699%, respectively. The study also provides a separate analysis of the product performances for clear sky and cloudy sky conditions. The importance of representing the cloud–aerosol radiative coupling in the MDSSFTD method is discussed. Finally, it is concluded that the quality of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts currently available is accurate enough to obtain reliable diffuse solar flux estimates. This quality of AOD forecasts was still a limitation a few years ago.

Satellite Retrieval of Downwelling Shortwave Surface Flux and Diffuse Fraction under All Sky Conditions in the Framework of the LSA SAF Program (Part 1: Methodology)

Several studies have shown that changes in incoming solar radiation and variations of the diffuse fraction can significantly modify the vegetation carbon uptake. Hence, monitoring the incoming solar radiation at large scale and with high temporal frequency is crucial for this reason along with many others. The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) has operationally disseminated in near real time estimates of the downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface since 2005. This product is derived from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument onboard the Meteosat Second Generation series of geostationary satellites, which covers Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and part of South America. However, near real time generation of the diffuse fraction at the surface level has only recently been initiated. The main difficulty towards achieving this goal was the general lack of accurate information on the aerosol particles in the atmosphere. This limitation is less important nowadays thanks to the improvements in atmospheric numerical models. This study presents an upgrade of the LSA SAF operational retrieval method, which provides the simultaneous estimation of the incoming solar radiation and its diffuse fraction from the satellite every 15 min. The upgrade includes a comprehensive representation of the influence of aerosols based on physical approximations of the radiative transfer within an atmosphere-surface associated medium. This article explains the retrieval method, discusses its limitations and differences with the previous method, and details the characteristics of the output products. A companion article will focus on the evaluation of the products against independent measurements of solar radiation. Finally, the access to the source code is provided through an open access platform in order to share the expertise on the satellite retrieval of this variable with the community.