Downscaling Aster Land Surface Temperature over Urban Areas with Machine Learning-Based Area-To-Point Regression Kriging

Leveraging data science and machine learning for urban climate adaptation in two major African cities: a HE2AT Center study protocol

INTRODUCTION

African cities, particularly Abidjan and Johannesburg, face challenges of rapid urban growth, informality and strained health services, compounded by increasing temperatures due to climate change. This study aims to understand the complexities of heat-related health impacts in these cities. The objectives are: (1) mapping intraurban heat risk and exposure using health, socioeconomic, climate and satellite imagery data; (2) creating a stratified heat-health forecast model to predict adverse health outcomes; and (3) establishing an early warning system for timely heatwave alerts. The ultimate goal is to foster climate-resilient African cities, protecting disproportionately affected populations from heat hazards.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The research will acquire health-related datasets from eligible adult clinical trials or cohort studies conducted in Johannesburg and Abidjan between 2000 and 2022. Additional data will be collected, including socioeconomic, climate datasets and satellite imagery. These resources will aid in mapping heat hazards and quantifying heat-health exposure, the extent of elevated risk and morbidity. Outcomes will be determined using advanced data analysis methods, including statistical evaluation, machine learning and deep learning techniques.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Wits Human Research Ethics Committee (reference no: 220606). Data management will follow approved procedures. The results will be disseminated through workshops, community forums, conferences and publications. Data deposition and curation plans will be established in line with ethical and safety considerations.

DownScaleBench for developing and applying a deep learning based urban climate downscaling- first results for high-resolution urban precipitation climatology over Austin, Texas

Cities need climate information to develop resilient infrastructure and for adaptation decisions. The information desired is at the order of magnitudes finer scales relative to what is typically available from climate analysis and future projections. Urban downscaling refers to developing such climate information at the city (order of 1 - 10 km) and neighborhood (order of 0.1 - 1 km) resolutions from coarser climate products. Developing these higher resolution (finer grid spacing) data needed for assessments typically covering multiyear climatology of past data and future projections is complex and computationally expensive for traditional physics-based dynamical models. In this study, we develop and adopt a novel approach for urban downscaling by generating a general-purpose operator using deep learning. This 'DownScaleBench' tool can aid the process of downscaling to any location. The DownScaleBench has been generalized for both in situ (ground- based) and satellite or reanalysis gridded data. The algorithm employs an iterative super-resolution convolutional neural network (Iterative SRCNN) over the city. We apply this for the development of a high-resolution gridded precipitation product (300 m) from a relatively coarse (10 km) satellite-based product (JAXA GsMAP). The high-resolution gridded precipitation datasets is compared against insitu observations for past heavy rain events over Austin, Texas, and shows marked improvement relative to the coarser datasets relative to cubic interpolation as a baseline. The creation of this Downscaling Bench has implications for generating high-resolution gridded urban meteorological datasets and aiding the planning process for climate-ready cities.

Reconstruction of Gap-Free Land Surface Temperature at a 100 m Spatial Resolution from Multidimensional Data: A Case in Wuhan, China

Land surface temperatures (LST) are vital parameters in land surface-atmosphere interactions. Constrained by technology and atmospheric interferences, LST retrievals from various satellite sensors usually return missing data, thus negatively impacting analyses. Reconstructing missing data is important for acquiring gap-free datasets. However, the current reconstruction methods are limited for maintaining spatial details and high accuracies. We developed a new gap-free algorithm termed the spatial feature-considered random forest regression (SFRFR) model; it builds stable nonlinear relationships to connect the LST with related parameters, including terrain elements, land coverage types, spectral indexes, surface reflectance data, and the spatial feature of the LST, to reconstruct the missing LST data. The SFRFR model reconstructed gap-free LST data retrieved from the Landsat 8 satellite on 27 July 2017 in Wuhan. The results show that the SFRFR model exhibits the best performance according to the various evaluation metrics among the SFRFR, random forest regression and spline interpolation, with a coefficient of determination (R²) reaching 0.96, root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.55. Then, we reconstructed gap-free LST data gathered in Wuhan from 2016 to 2021 to analyze urban thermal environment changes and found that 2020 presented the coolest temperatures. The SFRFR model still displayed satisfactory results, with an average R² of 0.91 and an MAE of 0.63. We further discuss and discover the factors affecting the visual performance of SFRFR and identify the research priority to circumvent these disadvantages. Overall, this study provides a simple, practical method for acquiring gap-free LST data to help us better understand the spatiotemporal LST variation process.

Generating 1 km Spatially Seamless and Temporally Continuous Air Temperature Based on Deep Learning over Yangtze River Basin, China

Air temperature is one of the most essential variables in understanding global warming as well as variations of climate, hydrology, and eco-systems. However, current products and assimilation approaches alone can provide temperature data with high resolution, high spatio-temporal continuity, and high accuracy simultaneously (refer to 3H data). To explore this kind of potential, we proposed an integrated temperature downscaling framework by fusing multiple remotely sent, model-based, and in-situ datasets, which was inspired by point-surface data fusion and deep learning. First, all of the predictor variables were processed to maintain spatial seamlessness and temporal continuity. Then, a deep belief neural network was applied to downscale temperature with a spatial resolution of 1 km. To further enhance the model performance, calibration techniques were adopted by integrating station-based data. The results of the validation over the Yangtze River Basin indicated that the average Pearson correlation coefficient, RMSE, and MAE of downscaled temperature achieved 0.983, 1.96 °C, and 1.57 °C, respectively. After calibration, the RMSE and MAE were further decreased by ~20%. In general, the results and comparative analysis confirmed the effectiveness of the framework for generating 3H temperature datasets, which would be valuable for earth science studies.

An Improved Approach for Downscaling Coarse-Resolution Thermal Data by Minimizing the Spatial Averaging Biases in Random Forest

Land surface temperature (LST) plays a fundamental role in various geophysical processes at varying spatial and temporal scales. Satellite-based observations of LST provide a viable option for monitoring the spatial-temporal evolution of these processes. Downscaling is a widely adopted approach for solving the spatial-temporal trade-off associated with satellite-based observations of LST. However, despite the advances made in the field of LST downscaling, issues related to spatial averaging in the downscaling methodologies greatly hamper the utility of coarse-resolution thermal data for downscaling applications in complex environments. In this study, an improved LST downscaling approach based on random forest (RF) regression is presented. The proposed approach addresses issues related to spatial averaging biases associated with the downscaling model developed at the coarse resolution. The approach was applied to downscale the coarse-resolution Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) LST product derived from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) sensor aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) weather satellite. The LSA-SAF product was downscaled to a spatial resolution of ~30 m, based on predictor variables derived from Sentinel 2, and the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) digital elevation model (DEM). Quantitatively and qualitatively, better downscaling results were obtained using the proposed approach in comparison to the conventional approach of downscaling LST using RF widely adopted in LST downscaling studies. The enhanced performance indicates that the proposed approach has the ability to reduce the spatial averaging biases inherent in the LST downscaling methodology and thus is more suitable for downscaling applications in complex environments.

Developing Shopping and Dining Walking Indices Using POIs and Remote Sensing Data

Walking is one of the most commonly promoted traveling methods and is garnering increasing attention. Many indices/scores have been developed by scholars to measure the walkability in a local community. However, most existing walking indices/scores involve urban planning-oriented, local service-oriented, regional accessibility-oriented, and physical activity-oriented walkability assessments. Since shopping and dining are two major leisure activities in our daily lives, more attention should be given to the shopping or dining-oriented walking environment. Therefore, we developed two additional walking indices that focus on shopping or dining. The point of interest (POI), vegetation coverage, water coverage, distance to bus/subway station, and land surface temperature were employed to construct walking indices based on 50-m street segments. Then, walking index values were categorized into seven recommendation levels. The field verification illustrates that the proposed walking indices can accurately represent the walking environment for shopping and dining. The results in this study could provide references for citizens seeking to engage in activities of shopping and dining with a good walking environment.