Multi-Component and Multi-Source Approach for Studying Land Subsidence in Deltas

Analysis of the Periodic Component of Vertical Land Motion in the Po Delta (Northern Italy) by GNSS and Hydrological Data

Nowadays, several methodologies, implemented for satellite or terrestrial surveys, reveal that daily and weekly site-positioning time series can exhibit linear trends plus seasonal oscillations. Such periodic components affect the evaluation of subsidence rates and, thus, they must be recognized and properly modelled. In this work, the periodic component of vertical land motion in Po Delta (Northern Italy) is estimated by a multi-component and multi-source procedure recently proposed by some of the authors for studying land subsidence in delta areas. First, land vertical motion data, acquired in the central part of the Po Delta over a six-year time interval, were compared with hydro-meteorological and climate datasets collected from nineteen stations distributed over the entire Delta. Then, four physically based models of the test site were implemented to verify the water pressure- and water mass-dependent processes inferred from the analytical phase. Modelling results show that the annual ground oscillation is better explained by soil moisture change, although river water mass variation gives a relevant contribution to land deformation, especially in the wet periods. Finally, to account for intra-annual processes, the joint contributions of all the inferred sources were treated as a nonlinear problem and solved applying the generalized reduced gradient method. The obtained combination is well supported by statistical parameters and provides the best agreement with the geodetic observations.

Actual and Forecasted Vulnerability Assessment to Seawater Intrusion via GALDIT-SUSI in the Volturno River Mouth (Italy)

Coastal areas have become increasingly vulnerable to groundwater salinization, especially in the last century, due to the combined effects of climate change and growing anthropization. In this study, a novel methodology named GALDIT-SUSI was applied in the floodplain of the Volturno River mouth for the current (2018) and future (2050) evaluation of seawater intrusion accounting for the expected subsidence and groundwater salinization rates. Several input variables such as digital surface model, land use classification, subsidence rate and drainage system have been mapped via remote sensing resources. The current assessment highlights how areas affected by salinization coincide with the semiperennial lagoons and inland depressed areas where paleosaline groundwaters are present. The future assessment (2050) shows a marked increase of salinization vulnerability in the coastal strip and in the most depressed areas. The results highlight that the main vulnerability driver is the Revelle index, while predicted subsidence and recharge rates will only slightly affect groundwater salinization. This case study indicates that GALDIT-SUSI is a reliable and easy-to-use tool for the assessment of groundwater salinization in many coastal regions of the world.

Monitoring of Land Subsidence in the Po River Delta (Northern Italy) Using Geodetic Networks

The Po River Delta (PRD, Northern Italy) has been historically affected by land subsidence due to natural processes and human activities, with strong impacts on the stability of the natural ecosystems and significant socio-economic consequences. This paper is aimed to highlight the spatial and temporal evolution of the land subsidence in the PRD area analyzing the geodetic observations acquired in the last decade. The analysis performed using a moving window approach on Continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (CGNSS) time-series indicates that the velocities, in the order of 6 mm/year, are not affected by significant changes in the analyzed period. Furthermore, the use of non-permanent sites belonging to a new GNSS network (measured in 2016 and 2018) integrated with InSAR data (from 2014 to 2017) allowed us to improve the spatial coverage of data points in the PRD area. The results suggest that the land subsidence velocities in the easternmost part of the area of interest are characterized by values greater than the ones located in the western sectors. In particular, the sites located on the sandy beach ridge in the western sector of the study area are characterized by values greater than −5 mm/year, while rates of about −10 mm/year or lower have been observed at the eastern sites located in the Po river mouths. The morphological analysis indicates that the land subsidence observed in the PRD area is mainly due to the compaction of the shallow layers characterized by organic-rich clay and fresh-water peat.