Satellite Observations of PM2.5 Changes and Driving Factors Based Forecasting Over China 2000–2025

MERRA-2 PM2.5 mass concentration reconstruction in China mainland based on LightGBM machine learning

MERRA-2 developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provides the long-term record of surface PM_2.5 mass concentration since 1980s, but needs great improvement over mainland China according to recent studies. In this study, a newly developed light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) model is introduced to correct the MERRA-2 PM_2.5 record over mainland China by incorporating the meteorological reanalysis and satellite AOD retrievals. A 40-year surface PM_2.5 record covering mainland China is reconstructed from 1980 to 2019, providing a new dataset for exploring the interactions between climate variability and air pollution. The new record exhibits not only much better magnitude but also more excellent variabilities of surface PM_2.5 loading compared to original MERRA-2 products. The correlation coefficient, the root-mean-square error and the mean error between the observed and reconstructed records are 0.8, less than 28.5 μg·m^-3, and 0.33 μg·m^-3, respectively, which are much better than those of 0.27, 45.8 μg·m^-3, and 1.64 μg·m^-3 between the observed and MERRA-2 PM_2.5 records. The PM_2.5 record with longer term and higher accuracy developed in this study provides a better base for the research on the climate change variability and air pollution in mainland China. However, limitations of the reconstructed record still exist, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and marine regions with very sparse surface measurements, which need further correction in the future studies.

Prediction of Fine Particulate Matter Concentration near the Ground in North China from Multivariable Remote Sensing Data Based on MIV-BP Neural Network

Rapid urbanization and industrialization lead to severe air pollution in China, threatening public health. However, it is challenging to understand the pollutants’ spatial distributions by relying on a network of ground-based monitoring instruments, considering the incomplete dataset. To predict the spatial distribution of fine-mode particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution near the surface, we established models based on the back propagation (BP) neural network for PM2.5 mass concentration in North China using remote sensing products. According to our predictions, PM2.5 mass concentrations are affected by changes in surface reflectance and the dominant particle size for different seasons. The PM2.5 mass concentration predicted by the seasonal model shows a similar spatial pattern (high in the east but low in the west) influenced by the terrain, but shows high value in winter and low in summer. Compared to the ground-based data, our predictions agree with the spatial distribution of PM2.5 mass concentrations, with a mean bias of +17% in the North China Plain in 2017. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients (R) of the four seasons’ instantaneous measurements are always above 0.7, indicating that the seasonal models primarily improve the PM2.5 mass concentration prediction.

Air Quality over China

The strong economic growth in China in recent decades, together with meteorological factors, has resulted in serious air pollution problems, in particular over large industrialized areas with high population density. To reduce the concentrations of pollutants, air pollution control policies have been successfully implemented, resulting in the gradual decrease of air pollution in China during the last decade, as evidenced from both satellite and ground-based measurements. The aims of the Dragon 4 project “Air quality over China” were the determination of trends in the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases, quantification of emissions using a top-down approach and gain a better understanding of the sources, transport and underlying processes contributing to air pollution. This was achieved through (a) satellite observations of trace gases and aerosols to study the temporal and spatial variability of air pollutants; (b) derivation of trace gas emissions from satellite observations to study sources of air pollution and improve air quality modeling; and (c) study effects of haze on air quality. In these studies, the satellite observations are complemented with ground-based observations and modeling.