Recent Changes in Water Discharge in Snow and Glacier Melt-Dominated Rivers in the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia

Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent changes in many lakes remain unexplored. Modelling hydrological processes for CA lakes poses challenges in separating climatic change impacts from human management impacts due to limited data and long-term variability in hydrological regimes. This study developed a spatially lumped empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change and human water abstraction, using Shortandy Lake in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP) as a case study. Modelling results show a significant water volume decline from 231.7x106m3 in 1986 to 172.5x106m3 in 2016, primarily driven by anthropogenic water abstraction, accounting for 92% of the total volume deficit. The highest rates of water abstraction (greater than 25% of annual outflow) occurred from 1989 to 1993, coinciding with the driest period. Since 2013, the water volume has increased due to increased precipitation and, more importantly, reduced water abstraction. Despite limited observational data with which to calibrate the model, it performs well. Our analysis underscores the challenges in modelling lakes in data-sparse regions such as CA, and highlights the importance and benefits of developing lake water balance models for the region.

Spatio-Temporal Development of Vegetation Carbon Sinks and Sources in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Drylands, which account for 41% of Earth's land surface and are home to more than two billion people, play an important role in the global carbon balance. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation carbon sinks and sources in the arid region of northwest China (NWC), using the net ecosystem production (NEP) through the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA). It quantitatively evaluates regional ecological security over a 20-year period (2000-2020) via a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and other ecological indexes, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), fraction of vegetation cover (FVC), net primary productivity (NPP), and land use. The results show that the annual average carbon capacity of vegetation in NWC changed from carbon sources to carbon sinks, and the vegetation NEP increased at a rate of 1.98 gC m-2 yr-1 from 2000 to 2020. Spatially, the annual NEP in northern Xinjiang (NXJ), southern Xinjiang (SXJ) and Hexi Corridor (HX) increased at even faster rates of 2.11, 2.22, and 1.98 gC m-2 yr-1, respectively. Obvious geographically heterogeneous distributions and changes occurred in vegetation carbon sinks and carbon sources. Some 65.78% of the vegetation areas in NWC were carbon sources during 2000-2020, which were concentrated in the plains, and SXJ, the majority carbon sink areas are located in the mountains. The vegetation NEP in the plains exhibited a positive trend (1.21 gC m-2 yr-1) during 2000-2020, but this speed has slowed since 2010. The vegetation NEP in the mountain exhibited only intermittent changes (2.55 gC m-2 yr-1) during 2000-2020; it exhibited a negative trend during 2000-2010, but this trend has reversed strongly since 2010. The entire ecological security of NWC was enhanced during the study period. Specifically, the RSEI increased from 0.34 to 0.49, the NDVI increased by 0.03 (17.65%), the FVC expanded by 19.56%, and the NPP increased by 27.44%. Recent positive trends in NDVI, FVC and NPP have enhanced the capacity of vegetation carbon sinks, and improved the eco-environment of NWC. The scientific outcomes of this study are of great importance for maintaining ecological stability and sustainable economic development along China's Silk Road Economic Belt.

Scientists' warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

Mountains are highly diverse in areal extent, geological and climatic context, ecosystems and human activity. As such, mountain environments worldwide are particularly sensitive to the effects of anthropogenic climate change (global warming) as a result of their unique heat balance properties and the presence of climatically-sensitive snow, ice, permafrost and ecosystems. Consequently, mountain systems-in particular cryospheric ones-are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in the Anthropocene. This study identifies and discusses four of the major properties of mountains upon which anthropogenic climate change can impact, and indeed is already doing so. These properties are: the changing mountain cryosphere of glaciers and permafrost; mountain hazards and risk; mountain ecosystems and their services; and mountain communities and infrastructure. It is notable that changes in these different mountain properties do not follow a predictable trajectory of evolution in response to anthropogenic climate change. This demonstrates that different elements of mountain systems exhibit different sensitivities to forcing. The interconnections between these different properties highlight that mountains should be considered as integrated biophysical systems, of which human activity is part. Interrelationships between these mountain properties are discussed through a model of mountain socio-biophysical systems, which provides a framework for examining climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Managing the risks associated with ongoing climate change in mountains requires an integrated approach to climate change impacts monitoring and management.

Recent Changes in Glaciers in the Northern Tien Shan, Central Asia

The Tien Shan is regarded as the “Water tower of Central Asia,” being a solid reservoir of freshwater resources and also a natural and early warning indicator of climate change. Research on glaciers is important for the sustainable development and management of water resources in Central Asia. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of glaciers in the northern Tien Shan from 1990 to 2015 using multi-source remote sensing and meteorological data. The results showed that the total area and volume of glaciers in the northern Tien Shan exhibited negative trends, decreasing by 456.43 km2 (16.08%) and 26.14 km3 (16.38%), respectively. The reduction in the total glacier area exhibited an accelerating trend, decreasing by 0.60%/a before 2000, but by 0.71%/a after 2000. Glaciers in the outer northern Tien Shan region, with areas < 2 km2 showed the greatest shrinkage, especially those in the northeastern and southwestern regions. All aspects in the northern Tien Shan exhibited negative trends in the glacier area, especially in the east–west aspects (shrinkage of 24.74–38.37%). Regarding altitude, the termini of glaciers rose continuously from 1990 to 2015, particularly for glaciers below 3700 m, with a total area decrease of 30.37%, and the lower altitude of the glaciers showed a higher area decrease.

Recent Oasis Dynamics and Ecological Security in the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia

As an important agricultural and gathering area in arid inland areas of China, the ecological environments of oasis areas are more sensitive to regional climate change and human activities. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the oases in the Tarim River basin (TRB) and quantitatively evaluates the regional ecological security of oases via a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and net primary productivity (NPP) through the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that the total plain oasis area in the TRB during the study period experienced an increasing trend, with the area expanding by 8.21%. Specifically, the artificial oases (cultivated and industrial land) showed a notable increase, whereas the natural oases (forests and grassland) exhibited an apparent decrease. Among the indictors of oasis change, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased from 0.13 to 0.16, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) expanded by 36.79%, and NPP increased by 31.55%. RSEI changes indicated that the eco-environment of the TRB region went from poor grade to general grade; 69% of the region’s eco-environment improved, especially in western mountainous areas, and less than 5% of the regions’ eco-ecological areas were degraded, mainly occurring in the desert-oasis ecotone. Changes in land- use types of oases indicated that human activities had a more significant influence on oases expansion than natural factors. Our results have substantial implications for environment protection and sustainable economic development along the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Changes in Glacial Meltwater Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change in the Tianshan Region Detected Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Satellite Remote Sensing

The Tianshan Mountains, known as the “water tower” of Central Asia, are the major source of water for the most part of Xinjiang and oasis region of Central Asia. However, climate warming has amplified the discharges of glacial meltwater in the Tianshan Mountains. In this study, we calculated river discharge by integrating cross-sections mapped using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and water velocity data collected in the field. Multiple remote sensing images, such as Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery, were applied to estimate the long-term discharge of 19 river sections in ungauged regions of the Tianshan Mountains. River discharge variations under climate change were also examined. Using our in-situ measured discharges as reference, the UAV derived discharge results have an NSE (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency) of 0.98, an RMSE (root mean square error) of 8.49 m3/s, and an average qualification rate of 80%. The monthly discharge of glacial meltwater-dominated river sections showed an average decrease of 2.46% during 1989–2019. The shrinking and even disappearance of mountain glaciers (approximately −4.98 km2/year) was the main reasons for the decrease trend. However, the precipitation-dominated river sections showed an average increase of 2.27% for the same period. The increase in precipitation (approximately 1.93 mm/year) was the key cause for the increase tendency. This study highlights remote sensing hydrological station technology and its application in the long-term prediction of river discharge, which is critical for decision-making regarding integrated water resource management in alpine regions.