Prediction of Winter Wheat Maturity Dates through Assimilating Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index into Crop Growth Model

The simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity date for wheat-maize by combining satellite images with crop model

BACKGROUND

The simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity date has an important impact on ensuring food security. However, few studies have focused on simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity date for wheat-maize in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, we developed the prediction model of maturity date and yield (PMMY) for wheat-maize using multi-source satellite images, an Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model and a random forest (RF) algorithm.

RESULTS

The results showed that the PMMY model using peak leaf area index (LAI) and accumulated evapotranspiration (ET) has the optimal performance in the prediction of maturity date and yield. The accuracy of the PMMY model using peak LAI and accumulated ET was higher than that of the PMMY model using only peak LAI or accumulated ET. In a single year, the PMMY model had good performance in the prediction of maturity date and yield. The latitude variation in spatial distribution of maturity date for WM was obvious. The spatial heterogeneity for yield of wheat-maize was not prominent. Compared with 2001-2005, the maturity date of the two crops in 2016-2020 advanced 1-2 days, while yield increased 659-706 kg ha-1. The increase in minimum temperature was the main meteorological factor for advance in the maturity date for wheat-maize. Precipitation was mainly positively correlated with maize yield, while the increase in minimum temperature and solar radiation was crucial to the increase in yield.

CONCLUSION

The simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity can be used to guide agricultural production and ensure food security. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Evaluating the accuracy of ARMA and multi-index methods for predicting winter wheat maturity date

BACKGROUND

Accurate and timely prediction of regional winter wheat maturity date can provide essential information to improve the management of agriculture and avoid declines in the yield and quality of crops. In this paper, we propose the use of an autoregressive moving-average model to predict vegetation indices on 1, 9, and 17 May each year, and applied them to the methods of evaluating crop maturity based on vegetation indices. Growing degree days and a widely applied local empirical method were selected to explore and compare the feasibility of several methods. We analyzed winter wheat harvested from the Guanzhong Plain during 2003-2013 and used leave-one-out cross-validation to compare and verify the performance of the maturity prediction methods.

RESULTS

The results demonstrated that (i) the vegetation index methods and growing degree days methods predicted maturity with higher accuracy than did the widely applied local empirical method, and (ii) the two-step filtering method based on future meteorological data from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble exhibited the highest prediction accuracy on 1 May and had the lowest error fluctuation range on 17 May.

CONCLUSION

These results provide new insights for predicting regional crop maturity, deploying agricultural harvesting equipment in various regions, and avoiding decreases in crop yields caused by adverse weather. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Prediction of the Maturity of Greenhouse Grapes Based on Imaging Technology

To predict grape maturity in solar greenhouses, a plant phenotype-monitoring platform (Phenofix, France) was used to obtain RGB images of grapes from expansion to maturity. Horizontal and longitudinal diameters, compactness, soluble solid content (SSC), titratable acid content, and the SSC/acid of grapes were measured and evaluated. The color values (R, G, B, H, S, and I) of the grape skin were determined and subjected to a back-propagation neural network algorithm (BPNN) to predict grape maturity. The results showed that the physical and chemical properties (PCP) of the three varieties of grapes changed significantly during the berry expansion stage and the color-changing maturity stage. According to the normalized rate of change of the PCP indicators, the ripening process of the three varieties of grapes could be divided into two stages: an immature stage (maturity coefficient Mc < 0.7) and a mature stage (after which color changes occurred) (0.7 ≤ Mc < 1). When predicting grape maturity based on the R, G, B, H, I, and S color values, the R, G, and I as well as G, H, and I performed well for Drunk Incense, Muscat Hamburg, and Xiang Yue grape maturity prediction. The GPI ranked in the top three (up to 0.87) when the above indicators were used in combination with BPNN to predict the grape Mc by single-factor and combined-factor analysis. The results showed that the prediction accuracy (RG and HI) of the two-factor combination was better for Drunk Incense, Muscat Hamburg, and Xiang Yue grapes (with recognition accuracies of 79.3%, 78.2%, and 79.4%, respectively), and all of the predictive values were higher than those of the single-factor predictions. Using a confusion matrix to compare the accuracy of the Mc's predictive ability under the two-factor combination method, the prediction accuracies were in the following order: Xiang Yue (88%) > Muscat Hamburg (81.3%) > Drunk Incense (76%). The results of this study provide an effective way to predict the ripeness of grapes in the greenhouse.

Cotton Classification Method at the County Scale Based on Multi-Features and Random Forest Feature Selection Algorithm and Classifier

Accurate cotton maps are crucial for monitoring cotton growth and precision management. The paper proposed a county-scale cotton mapping method by using random forest (RF) feature selection algorithm and classifier based on selecting multi-features, including spectral, vegetation indices, and texture features. The contribution of texture features to cotton classification accuracy was also explored in addition to spectral features and vegetation index. In addition, the optimal classification time, feature importance, and the best classifier on the cotton extraction accuracy were evaluated. The results showed that the texture feature named the gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) is effective for improving classification accuracy, ranking second in contribution among all studied spectral, VI, and texture features. Among the three classifiers, the RF showed higher accuracy and better stability than support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The average overall accuracy (OA) of the classification combining multiple features was 93.36%, 7.33% higher than the average OA of the single-time spectrum, and 2.05% higher than the average OA of the multi-time spectrum. The classification accuracy after feature selection by RF can still reach 92.12%, showing high accuracy and efficiency. Combining multiple features and random forest methods may be a promising county-scale cotton classification method.

Comparison of Winter Wheat Extraction Methods Based on Different Time Series of Vegetation Indices in the Northeastern Margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: A Case Study of Minhe, China

The northeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is an agricultural protection area in China’s new development plan, and the primary region of winter wheat growth within QTP. Winter wheat monitoring is critical for understanding grain self-sufficiency, climate change, and sustainable socioeconomic and ecological development in the region. However, due to the complex terrain and high altitude of the region, with discontinuous arable land and the relatively low level of agricultural development, there are no effective localization methodologies for extracting and monitoring the detailed planting distribution information of winter wheat. In this study, Sentinel-2A/B data from 2019 to 2020, obtained through the Google Earth Engine platform, were used to build time series reference curves of vegetation indices in Minhe. Planting distribution information of winter wheat was extracted based on the phenology time-weighted dynamic time warping (PT-DTW) method, and the effects of different vegetation indices’ time series and their corresponding threshold parameters were compared. The results showed that: (1) the three vegetation indices—normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized differential phenology index (NDPI), and normalized difference greenness index (NDGI)—maintained high mapping potential; (2) under the optimal threshold, >88% accuracy of index identification for winter wheat extraction was achieved; (3) due to improved extraction accuracy and resulting boundary range, NDPI and its corresponding optimal parameter (T = 0.05) performed the best. The process and results of this study have certain reference value for the study of winter wheat planting information change and the formulation of dynamic monitoring schemes in agricultural areas of QTP.

Integration of a Crop Growth Model and Deep Learning Methods to Improve Satellite-Based Yield Estimation of Winter Wheat in Henan Province, China

Timely and accurate regional crop-yield estimates are crucial for guiding agronomic practices and policies to improve food security. In this study, a crop-growth model was integrated with time series of remotely sensed data through deep learning (DL) methods to improve the accuracy of regional wheat-yield estimations in Henan Province, China. Firstly, the time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were input into the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to identify the wheat-growing region, which was further used to estimate wheat areas at the municipal and county levels. Then, the leaf area index (LAI) and grain-yield time series simulated by the Crop Environment REsource Synthesis for Wheat (CERES-Wheat) model were used to train and evaluate the LSTM, one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and random forest (RF) models, respectively. Finally, an exponential model of the relationship between the field-measured LAI and MODIS NDVI was applied to obtain the regional LAI, which was input into the trained LSTM, 1-D CNN and RF models to estimate wheat yields within the wheat-growing region. The results showed that the linear correlations between the estimated wheat areas and the statistical areas were significant at both the municipal and county levels. The LSTM model provided more accurate estimates of wheat yields, with higher R2 values and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE) values than the 1-D CNN and RF models. The LSTM model has an inherent advantage in capturing phenological information contained in the time series of the MODIS-derived LAI, which is important for satellite-based crop-yield estimates.